Pool #2 of the Derby and Oaks future bets opens today so I thought I'd share a few thoughts and maybe a few selections as well. Just as a proviso I don't actually play the Futures, I only analyse them and make "paper plays" on them but occasionally you will see me speak of them as if I have an actual ticket on them. I don't. These were KC's recommended plays from Pool #1.
Derby
Great Hunter 24/1
Liquidity 33/1
Notional 27/1
Oaks
Baroness Thatcher 33/1
Get Ready Bertie 31/1
I feel rather blessed that all these horses are still on the trail and are looking like decent value. Great Hunter looked like the best value of Pool #1 and on the evidence of his Bob Lewis victory that looks like a steal. But there may still be some value to be found.
At this stage of the game I find that its vital to ask yourself a few questions.
Where is this horse expected to prep next?
How do I think he will do in that prep?
Based on what I expect from him in his last prep what price is he likely to be in the Derby?
This year looks pretty wide open, we could be looking at a Derby fave around 4/1. So unless you envision your horse winning one of the major prep races you are likely going to get more than 10/1 on Derby day. Make sure the price you get represents a good reward relative to the risk of time that you have to bear. There is no sense in taking a horse at 14/1 if he's going to be 11/1 on Derby day. You have to bear two months of risk just for a slightly better price.
But lets get down and look at some actual horses.
Kentucky Derby
Any Given Saturday (12/1) - He's still my top Derby choice but I don't like the morning line. This is a horse that realistically could be 4/1 on Derby day if he sweeps the Tampa Bay derby and the Blue Grass. But more than likely he'll suffer a reverse in one of those two and be around 8/1. I'll need better than 15/1 on him to warrant a play.
All Other 3yo's (4/1) - This is definitely the worst play of the entire pool. I feel quite confident that the Derby winner is on this list somewhere.
O'Neill's Derby trio Great Hunter (8/1) Liquidity (20/1) Notional (15/1) - I'm glad I'm already locked onto these three (fictitiously of course) because I don't really like the prices here. Liquidity is the best price but he'll be running in the Louisiana Derby while the pool is open and if he does well like I expect him to he'll likely be about 14/1.
Hard Spun (20/1) - I love to focus on horses who aren't running while the pool is open. I think people tend to forget about them and their prices rise because of it. Hard Spun is a very interesting horse. He has certainly lost a lot of gloss with his last defeat but the connections are saying it was the track and the outside trip he got. I think those may just be viable excuses and this horse could easily come back next out and put himself back in the picture. His Beyer Figures are actually right about where they should be at this time of year and he still has likely two preps left. I'll take him if he drifts to 25/1 or higher.
Summer Doldrums (15/1) - This is a bit of a hopeful play because I want his price to be about 20/1. Given the fact that he is running in the Gotham where he lays over the field on paper his price is more likely to drop than rise. But Violette is cautious because of what happened with Read The Footnotes and I think he's backed off this horse a bit. If someone else in the race freaks out and wins he may drift a bit. I think he is good enough to win the Wood and he has already shown he is one of the fastest horses of the crop so I am interested if I can get a price.
Kentucky Oaks
Having already gotten a piece of Baroness Thatcher and Get Ready Bertie at generous prices I don't think there is any need to pursue them further despite tempting odds on Get Ready Bertie.
Rags To Riches (4/1) - She is of course the talk of the town and the belle of the ball. If she wins the SA Oaks this weekend she will be unplayable price wise. In any event I think she's a poor gamble. Her connections have not even ruled out the Derby, and this is racing no horse horse is worth a short price months away from the big dance. She may be the best horse but I don't think she's worth it.
Boca Grande (15/1) - Depending on how her race goes she might slide up to 20/1 or more. She is entered in a sprint where her connections don't really expect her to win. But then bettors may be wise to that as well and since she is a Phipps horse she will always have a higher profile than her peers. She is a play at 20/1 of more but its unlikely.
Christmas Kid (50/1) - Tough to say if her price will actually be that high since she runs in the Bonnie Miss and I expect her to win, but I was shocked by the morning line price on her. I would take anything over 35/1 on this horse whole hearted. She is just coming in to her own it seems.
Appealing Zophie (15/1) - I think she's turned into a monster as a 3yo so I would like to get something down on her but 15/1 is about as low as I'd go. Perhaps she would be well served by a loss to Octave or Get Ready Bertie just so the price stays where it is.
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odds and ends comments on previous ideas presented by KC postings// in regard to lightly races colts going into the derby, i realize that the ave. number of races has fallen somewhat and may fall even more in the future/ but i wonder if there is a point of diminishing returns and/or will it be sort of like having or not having enough water to prime the pump/ my thought is that if 90% of derby starters had only 3-4 starts then i think 90% of the derby winners would come from the starters that had 6-8 starts/ one thing is that trainers are going to want to go after purses prior to the derby and also to find out what they really have/ also, the including the experience factor, part of winning pre derby races is to find out how you stack up against other 3 yrs and not wait to derby day to find out/ also, i think cutting back on starts by the great majority, would detract from the prestige of winning the kentucky derby because after all you are not going to be able to follow much and you might as well make it a non winners of one or two//regarding the current 3yr old crop, i don't think it is all that bad /i dont have the statistics to show how they rate at this stage, i really have only visual impressions, but i think there are a lot of nice colts out there and in the next 6 weeks i expect a few to really strut their stuff, beyer wise and etc.,// regarding freaks// how to judge, war emblem and sinister minister turning beyers of 112 and 111 respectively// same trainer although baffert got war emblem late, but entirely different results// and how about the second or third tier colt who rolls out of hay on derby day morning and says to himself, "hay, 'i mean hey', it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood and today i feel like running like a darn fool"/// the best thing , i think, is to do as is presented by Kennedy's Corridor/ ask the right questions, look at the data related to those questions and make an informed selection/ you may be wrong, but you greatly increase your chances of being right// good idea on the remote//i have solved the problem in my own way// i don't own a TV//regarding future' pool/ the pubic is not going to give you much/ my thought is that if i were high on one to three colts, i would dutch them at no less in the range of 20 to 35 to 1/ at this stage unless you think the public has really missed the boat/ take your money and put it on number 17 0n the roulette wheel / you have 35-1 shot which is probably going to be better than putting it on the derby entrants/ chicago gerry
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