Prior starts at CD

What do Street Sense, Circular Quay, Teuflesberg, Zanjero and Bold Start have in common?

They have the distinction of being the only current Derby contenders with a win over the Churchill Downs surface. Did they just move up on your list?

As well we have Any Given Saturday, Great Hunter, King of the Roxy, Officer Rocket, Sam P, Scat Daddy and Stormello who have all run over the Churchill surface. Does that mean that the Derby winner is statistically more likely to come from a combination of this group and those mentioned above?

The issue comes up over and over again and everyone pretty much takes it as a positive. After all having at win or at least a good race at Churchill Downs has to be a positive factor doesn't it?

Well the numbers may not give you so much confidence. Here are the bare facts for horses with at least one career start at CD prior to the Derby (stats include data from 1996 to 2006)

Horses who have won a race at CD: 21-0-0-0
Horses who have run without winning at CD: 20-3-5-2
Horses who have raced at CD: 41-3-5-2

Obviously the stat that stands out is that no horse in the last 11 years has both won a race at CD and run well in the Derby, and an amazing 21 horses have tried!

Every single statistic must be balanced with cool headed reasoning. Is there a reason why horses who have won a race at CD have not done well in the Derby? The first thing I tend to look at is the quality of the horses who qualified. Among them you'll find The Cliffs Edge, Captain Steve, Harlan's Holiday, Cape Town and Favorite Trick along with 3 horses who finished 4th in the Derby: Limehouse, More Than Ready and Don't Get Mad. I don't think quality is really the issue. Certainly the horses who have run at CD without winning have done decently. The winning percentage is not all that good but 50% of the starters have hit the frame.

My conclusion is that it is a statistical oddity that no horse with a win at CD has hit the board in the Derby for the last 11 years. There is no reason why that should disadvantage them, so this statistic is not used as a factor for my 20/20 ratings. However I'm also not overawed when the media keep on pumping a horse because they have a win at CD. I don't think it is much of an advantage at all.