The Road and Ragtime

"i was wondering if KC is considering putting chelokee on the radar and also possibly rags to riches?/ / summer doldrums was my biggest disappointment this weekend / i think the pace didn't set up for him but he really had no big excuse/ zanjero took a drop for me and it is hard to keep supporting him at this point/ he is the type that could round out the bottom of the trifecta on derby day/ i was wondering what Kennedy's Corridor thought the chances are that pletcher would run rags to riches in the ky derby?/ i was wondering what Kennedy's Corridor thought about the odds on the field after the results of the futures pool# 2// since i need to add more colts to my rtr stable this week, i was wondering what KC might suggest as new posssibilites as the result of the weekend races these past 2 weekends/ also, although i did not and do not have hardspun, i am not through thinking he could very well rebound/ /"

chicago gerry

This is an excellent springboard for discussion as I was just pondering many of these questions myself.

On the subject of Chelokee I have given thought to adding him to my radar however I always get stuck on the same point with him. He is brilliant and inconsistent in equal measure. He was fantastic in his most recent race, but then again the final time was not all that quick. I don't think that he brings his best to the track every time and I also think that he'll only have one shot in a stakes race before the Derby. Basically I don't think he will make it in the gate.
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Rags to Riches is a far more interesting case. Undefeated this term, she has already overcome some adversity, on the face of it she looks like a great contender, but in my opinion she is both unlikely to make it to the Derby and unlikely to succeed even if she did run. First off her owners already have full ownership or a part interest in Circular Quay, Grapelli, Ravel, Scat Daddy and Belgravia. They arguably have the strongest Derby hand already. On the other shoe Rags to Riches is their only current Oaks horse. So do you trade almost certain victory in a race like the Oaks just in order to strengthen your hand in the Derby? Rags to Riches is also not physically and mentally set for the task. She is still gawky and awkward and while she has been brilliant she does not appear mature enough to handle a race like the Derby. This is not a powerful and professional filly like Winning Colors. What will happen with her is that she will most likely run in a race like the Illinois Derby and her connections will assess her based on that. Unless she shows me a new dimension in her next start I'd be bearish on her chances if she were to run in the Derby.
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With the "all other 3yo's" option in the Future Bet pools I always look at it from two angles.

1) Is 6/1 (or whatever price) good value for opposing every horse on this list. Because that is the bet you're making, you are saying that none of the main Derby contenders is going to win the race. I happen to think that the Derby winner will be one of the main contenders, this hasn't really been a year for outsiders.

2) What horses am I really getting for 6/1? Take a quick gander at the best contenders who weren't listed. I come up with Ketchikan, Twilight Meteor, Rags to Riches, Noble Court, Deadly Dealer and Law Breaker. I really don't see anyone on this list that would compel me to take 6/1 on. In fact other than Ketchikan I'm not sure if many of these horses will even have done enough to be in the Derby gate. 6/1 is bad odds for a horse who could easily be 40/1 on his own
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The Road to the Roses game is fascinating and infuriating all at once. I have 88 points which is decent at best. At least I'm in the top 20% but realistically my chances at the overall #1 are pretty slim. This could cause me to shift my focus to the weekly prizes. $300 is nothing to sniff at and one could make changes with an eye to stack one particular weekend and make off with the pot.

But there may be some who are still in with the overall title. To those people I'd say just write everything out and plot your course. Look at the contenders you have and the races they are expected to run in. Are there any holes? Do you have all the big races covered as well as you want? Remember that only 5 horses can be active for one weekend, don't take horses that you wont be able to use. Also given the date of this addition period make note that some horses that you select will only have one more start while others will have two.

Nothing is set in stone but if I could have 2 horses for every major prep until the next addition period in my stable these would likely be my choices.

Rebel - Officer Rocket, Curlin
San Felipe - Cobalt Blue, Noble Court
Tampa Bay Derby - Any Given Saturday, Street Sense
Lane's End - Twilight Meteor, Hard Spun
Florida Derby - Notional, Scat Daddy
Wood Memorial - Circular Quay, Nobiz Like Showbiz
Illinois Derby - Sam P, Bold Start
Santa Anita Derby - Ravel, Liquidity
Blue Grass - Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday
Arkansas Derby - Ketchikan, Officer Rocket

For a look at all the preps and who I think might be running you can visit this sheet. This is based purely on information gleaned from official publications. No guess work involved.