Weekend Picks and Analysis

Weekend Overview
Should be a great weekend I wont analyse every race because in some races I either don't have a clue or the winner just looks obvious. The Santa Anita Handicap should be won by Lava Man. He is way better than the rest of them and I don't see value in going for him or opposing him. Corinthian is much the same story, he'd be a best bet if there was promise of any value in him. Great Hunter is more vulnerable in the Bob Lewis because of the speed of Saint Paul but I'm really not interested in trying to make something of that race. I'm more interested in analysing the results for the Bob Lewis than I am in predicting them.

Frank Kilroe Mile
This is one of my favorite races, I don't know why but I just love mile races on the turf. They're wide open, they usually have full fields and there are so many interesting factors to look at. This race is no exception, there are 12 quality entrants and its tough to separate them. I'll start by focusing on two horses. Silent Name and Three Valleys have something in common they are both at one time horses that I considered to be prime candidates to win the BC Mile. In 2005 I though very highly of Three Valleys. At the beginning of the year I touted him as a top contender for the Mile. He didn't have a bad season but he soured near the end and didn't even run. Since then he came back to run a few good races in 2006 and his last effort indicated that maybe he is ready to step up to his potential. Silent Name is sort of an infuriating horse. I think he he is the most talented horse in this race but he is also the most troubled. I have no idea how a horse as good as he is win less in his last 5 and out of the money in his last 3. He seems to have a mental problem and he just cant seem to pass horses. Although I respect his ability greatly I cant take him here, the only other thing that really makes me fear him is that Santa Anita is the only NA course he has ever won on. Maybe a return here will bring him to life. But the pace should be sharp and i don't know if he can settle. Kip Deville looks like an excellent play, I'm surprised to hear myself saying it since he looked like cheap speed personified last summer but he has been quietly effective at a mile and he has even learned to rate. He's been working well and has a huge chance in this race. I like him most because of his ability to be near the pace whereas Three Valleys will be coming from off the pace. I also thing Bayeux stands an excellent chance. With a hearty pace to run at this horse should be flying at the end. If they've gone too fast too early he might just get there.

1)Kip Deville
2)Three Valleys
3)Bayeux

Hutcheson
Will this weekend be as simple as taking Pletcher from start to finish? It worked last weekend and he's got 3 horses in this race including the second choice. I'm not really a fan of Out of Gwedda, I think his maiden figure was inflated and he's been walking in its shadow ever since. He just has not convinced me that he's going to get to the next level. Pletcher's best horse in here I think is King of the Roxy. He's a classy horse and the layoff doesn't really scare me. He is definitely better at one turn but he has some stamina and looks more like a miler than a sprinter. This is more of a miler's race than a sprinters. Forefathers is dangerous because he's been getting improving figs each time out. Of all the horses in this race he looks the most likely to have a shot at getting to the Derby. But something tells me that his connections are wary of his distance limitations. He may just flatten out here in the lane. Especially since his inside post means he'll need to bring some early speed. He could win this race but I don't think he's a solid favorite. 5/2 would be about the lowest I'd like to take on him. I love Storm In May, not necessarily for the win spot but just as fan. If the pace gets hot this guy will be coming and I very much like the way his trainer works with young horses. I think the most underrated horse in the race is Spin Master. I adored his last race, it was a fantastic effort and I think the horses he faced were actually about as good as the crowd he's facing here. With an outside post he shouldn't be setting the pace but he certainly could. He looks like a miler more than a sprinter but most of all he just looks like a good horse who is starting to come out of his shell.

1)Spin Master
2)Storm In May
3)King Of The Roxy

Richter Scale
I think this is where we see Half Ours lose his perfect record. I don't think he'll be able to handle these horses. The only thing that prevents me from taking Diabolical outright as a best bet is the 7f distance. I think 6f is his best race but he is definitely still my selection going 7 panels. He is simply a top class sprinter and I'm not sure if any of these other horses are. Half Ours certainly has the capability to become one but I just don't trust him. Bright One should ensure a lively pace and at 7 furlongs its pretty hard to hold that run. I think he's bit of a run off type and I wont use him. His speed is much more effective around two turns. I actually fear Ecclesiastic mostly because Allen Jerkens has been very hot lately and he seems to win every race I look at when he has a horse. I cant figure out why he is in this race instead of the Appleton but he has been working very quickly and his trainer is a master of upsets. Oddly enough I also give an outsiders chance to Little Thunder. He was a huge horse on this track last year at this time but he sort of lost his way. He can run well fresh and he is coming back to his favorite track at a distance that suits him. He should be closing into the pace.

1)Diabolical
2)Little Thunder
3)Ecclesiastic

Fountain of Youth
I think in this race you are supposed to take Nobiz Like Shobiz, he is the hype horse who is just supposed to get better with distance. But I think we could find reason to oppose him. He is surely going to hit the frame unless he falls down but he doesn't lay over this field as much as Hard Spun did in the Southwest. I think the pace should be pretty solid. Stormello, Hal's My Hope, Johannesburg Star and Meritocracy should be setting a good gallop. Nobiz Like Showbiz will likely get the "favorites ride". He'll sit about a length and a half off the pace about 4 wide. For those who like his Derby chances I don't think this race is all that pivotal. He only needs to run in the frame, but it would also be nice if he finally got a three figure Beyer Speed Figure because at this stage he really hasn't been fast enough. This race was deprived of some intrigue when Adore the Gold got the outside post. I think he'd have to be Barbaro to win from out there. He really should have cross entered in the Hutcheson because it will take a monstrous performance for him to be in the mix. Drums of Thunder is likely going to be the wiseguy horse after his progressive effort in the Holy Bull but he got the perfect setup that day and couldn't get it done. I don't things will be better for him in here. Second or third would be about all I could see him getting. I was surprised to see that Scat Daddy's morning line was 3/1 because he's a rather unfashionable horse these days. I think his price will be more like 6/1 at the off. Scat Daddy is at a crossroads. His last race wasn't terrible but if wants to stay on the Derby trail he needs to run a good race here. Fortunately for him I think he will, everything went against him last time out. He was right up on the pace and he was racing in the inside. One thing I've noticed about Scat Daddy is that he sometimes shies from horses on his outside. He seemed uncomfortable in the Hopeful and he had that same look again in the Holy Bull. The outside post is much better for him and the pace setup will give him something to run at. If Scat Daddy doesn't run well here then he doesn't belong with this type of horse. Winning will still be a challenge since he'll have to run his best lifetime race for sure but if you get a decent price on him it might be worth. Other than a freak out performance from Adore The Gold Scat Daddy is the only horse who I think is capable of beating Nobiz Like Showbiz.

1)Scat Daddy
2)Nobiz Like Showbiz
3)Adore The Gold