Weekend Preview

Lane's End S
I think the most interesting storyline coming into this race is Hard Spun's quest to get back on track. I have to say though I don't like the decision to bring him here. The excuse for Hard Spun's only reverse was that he failed to handle the track. That happens sometimes and it can create value when a horse reverts back to what they like the best. But I have to wonder what his connections were thinking by putting him in here instead of on conventional dirt. Hard Spun has not yet run on Polytrack, he also prefers to go to the lead and it was obvious to most that his outside post hurt him in his last race. So if his connections are really looking to get him back on track why do they put him in a race that always draws a full field, increasing his chances of getting an outside berth, on a surface that is notoriously unkind to front runners. Hard Spun could easily run poorly here and his connection will have learned nothing about him other than maybe he found another surface that he doesn't like. I think it would have been much smarter to regroup in the Private Terms at Laurel then come back in one of the big 4 preps. Commentary aside Hard Spun does have a chance in this race if he handles the track well. But I do think he's a bad risk at 5/2. I much prefer the classy Smart Strike duo. Twilight Meteor never does anything too brilliant but he finishes so strongly. He's relentless, and I think with the pace we're likely to get it sets up for another Derby prep win for Todd Pletcher. Sedgefield has every right to do well also. He does have the outside post but I'm hoping that will inspire Bejarano to lay further off the pace. I think he's exposed him too early in his last few starts, even though he did win two back. He already has form over this track and if he can come with one run and not go too wide he could be very dangerous. I know the Lane's End has recently been fertile ground for longshots but this year I'm looking for class to stick.

1)Twilight Meteor
2)Sedgefield
3)Hard Spun

Distaff Breeders Cup H
I certainly hope that some people get focused on Magnolia Jackson and Victorina because I'm hoping for the biggest price I can get on Oprah Winney. She has turned a corner as a 4yo and has been an absolute bear. Now there is speed in this race, enough speed to make her uncomfortable but if she has stepped up to the level I believe she has it wont matter. Victorina is a solid and consistent horse and she will surely give a good account of herself but I'm just not sure that she can deal with this class. She is going to need to see Oprah Winney tired out by someone else in order to catch her I think. Sprint races do have an element of chance to them and if Oprah Winney were to miss the break Maryfield is certainly qualified to win a race like this. O'Neill has been deadly with his shippers and I think this one just needed to get away from Santa Anita. She likes to be on the front end which likely wont happen for her but if by some miracle it does you will have to respect her. Magnolia Jackson doesn't seem to be as good this year as she was last year. I cant say I really fancy her chances of doing anymore than hitting the frame.

1)Oprah Winney
2)Victorina
3)Maryfield

San Luis Rey H
Before I looked at this race I figured that One Off was the horse to beat and there was little reason to oppose him. However a closer inspection revealed that there are indeed some interesting angles in here. A horse I really adore in this spot is Runaway Dancer. He's been a fixture on the California turf circuit for many years. He hasn't won a graded stakes since the Jim Murray in May of 05' but lately he has been in the form of his life. His race in the Hollywood Turf Cup was perhaps his career best and his follow up effort in the San Luis Obispo was deceivingly good. Because of the run off he his chart reads that he was well back but really he was right in the mix with the real pace. I think that dulled his closing kick and still he was just touched off at the line. As odd as it sounds I'd actually prefer if Gryder got the call instead of Solis because Solis has put him closer in the last 3 times he's ridden him. Hopefully they recognize that he's a one run closer who can do it into any pace. His blowout on Mar 19th was the fastest work he's had in about 6 months, it looks like he's set to break his losing streak in graded stakes. If you don't like that option then perhaps Prospect Park would entice you. This horse was an A grade 3yo in Europe. He looked to have everything before him but he sort of lost his way as a 4yo then missed his entire 5yo season with injury. Mandella brought him back on Big Cap day and he looked rank on the backside dragging Nakatani all the up to contest the lead before fading the lane. He looked like a horse who hadn't run in over a year and should some on for the race as long as the freshness has been taken out of him. His two subsequent works indicate that it has, and he should really relish the distance. He doesn't need to be at his lifetime best to beat this group. Even 80% of his pinnacle would get the job done. One Off certainly has his chance but I think anyone who looks at the PP's can see why. I don't think he'll be much value. One horse I really dislike is Notable Guest. He has quit late on in his last two races. I'm not sure what it will take to get him to finish a race.

1)Runaway Dancer
2)Prospect Park
3)One Off