Monday, April 30, 2007

20-20 Derby Vision - Part 2

EDIT: I added the statistical information for the first 5 factors in Part 1 as commenter Jeff requested. I also went over the stats with a fine tooth comb and found that I had miscalculated a few things. The 20/20 system now shows a profit of 35.73%. The updated system results are online and you can view them here or on the sidebar.

#6 The entrant cannot have run the highest of their last three Beyer Speed Figures three starts back. Essentially you don't want the horses best recent race to be 3 starts ago. You want him at or near his finest form right now. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 31-1-0-0 in the Derby. Giacomo was the lone exception.

Bad news for Tueflesberg, Cobalt Blue, Liquidity and Street Sense.

#7 The entrant must not have three consecutive declining Beyer Speed Figures going into the Derby. This is very similar to factor #6 but it isolates the horses who are in a what is an extremely negative speed figure pattern. In the factor above the horses eliminated do not necessarily have three declining figures. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 18-0-0-0 in the Derby.

The horses from this years Derby that do not qualify are Cobalt Blue and Street Sense.

#8 The entrant must have finished in the money in their last prep. This one is kind of obvious. A horse needs to show that they are in fine form and one of the most obvious ways they do that is to finish in the top 3 in their last race. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 43-1-2-0 in the Derby. Giacomo, Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat all rebounded from 4th place finishes to run well in the Derby.

#9 The entrant must either win or finish within three lengths of the winner in their last prep. Seems nearly redundant after viewing factor #8 but this is a far more precise measurement in my opinion. For instance a horse may have run a good race to be a close 4th, conversely some horses are beaten by 10 lengths in their last prep but they managed to be third simply because everyone else who they were facing ran worse. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 75-0-4-1 in the Derby. The best non-qualified performers with this angle were Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, Impeachment, Aptitude and Closing Arguement.

For this years Derby it means Stormello, Any Given Saturday, Sam P, Liquidity, Storm In May, Sedgefield, Cobalt Blue, Imawildandcrazyguy and Bwana Bull. One thing you might want to note though. Of the 5 horses who ran well while not qualifying for this factor, 3 of them were trained by Todd Pletcher.

#10 The entrant must have finished in the money in at least two races as a 3yo. This value of this factor is two fold. First of all it tries to identify consistency among the entrants, but secondly it also means that a horse with two preps has very little wiggle room. The profile does not have any factor concerning the actual number of prep races. It only makes minimum requirement of what a horse must get from their prep races. In this case it effectively means that any horse with one prep is eliminated and also any horse with two preps who did not run well in both. Of course horses who do poorly over 3 or 4 preps can also be eliminated. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 27-0-1-0 in the Derby. Proud Citizen was the only horse to overcome this factor and run with credit.

For this Derby it means Stormello, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Liquidity, Imawildandcrazyguy and Xchanger all have this against them.

I will hopefully return with part 3 tomorrow as long as technology allows.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You have the worlds attention, how are your server stats looking?

I am on pins and needles waiting for your next post. :)
THANKS!

Kyle Newcomb said...

Interesting system. You have a problem this year, though. The Blue Grass is a bad figure. Increase it by 10 points and see how that changes things.

Kennedy said...

"Interesting system. You have a problem this year, though. The Blue Grass is a bad figure. Increase it by 10 points and see how that changes things."

I noticed that myself Kyle, and for my personal handicapping I generally add 5 pts to any Polytrack figure. With the wacky pace the figure is sure to be off but for the sake of continuity I decided not to alter the system. I'll merely make the cahnges for myself when I handicap the Derby. Raising those figures by even 5 points makes a big difference. For instance Dominican would score a perfect 20 if both his polytrack figs were raised by 5.

Numbers and stats can only tell you so much. This is a fun tool but it certainly can't account for all the different things that go into a race. It would not shock me at all to see horses coming out of the Blue Grass do very well.

carlonr said...

What ever happened to Part 3.

Kennedy said...

Part 3 is directly above the post you commented on.