I do not believe that Beyer Speed Figures are any sort of authoritative figure. With suspicion over the Gotham revision (106 to 94) and the odd numbers for the Blue Grass confidence in Beyer Speed figures this Derby trail may be at a new low.
However I do find them useful in many respects and one of them is looking at the pattern of a horses speed figures to get an idea for their current form.
When looking at Beyer patterns for the Derby I take only the horses last 3 races. I don't think anything can be derived from looking further back as typically the last 3 races are the only races a trainer has truly devoted to the Derby trail. That and you cant tell much about a horses current form by looking at 4 starts back.
Since I'm looking strictly at the last 3 races then its clear that a horse can only enter the Derby with one of 6 patterns. I have labelled the patterns using an alphabetical sequence. So A is the highest Beyer figure achieved in the horses last 3 starts, B is the second highest and obviously C would be the lowest. In the event of a tie I given greater preference to the most recent race. So if a horse got a 100 Beyer for its last two races the last prep would be A and the second last B (assuming the third race back was slower).
Here is the raw data
A/B/C: 69-3-6-5
A/C/B: 31-3-2-3
B/A/C: 35-4-2-2
B/C/A: 13-1-0-0
C/A/B: 20-0-1-1
C/B/A: 18-0-0-0
As you can see it seems as though the first three patterns are positive ones and the last 3 patterns are negative ones. The most obvious pattern and probably the one most people are readily drawn to is the A/B/C or 3 improving figures in a row. One would logically look at the progression and assume that further improvement is likely. While this is certainly not a bad assumption it it by far the least effective of the 3 positive patterns. It yields basically twice the amount of starters and roughly the same amount of winners. In order to cut down much of the chaff I would recommend adding the filter that each horse with an A/B/C pattern needs to have run a 100+ Beyer figure in its last. Horses fitting that criteria were a cumulative 52-3-5-2.
The prime Derby plays would seem to be the horses fitting the A/C/B or B/A/C patterns. Perfect example from past Derby's are Silver Charm, Charismatic, Barbaro and Monarchos. None of them made steady progress to the Derby but they were brought into the race perfectly. Among those with the B/A/C pattern look for those with less than 2 Beyer points difference between B and A. The compiled a record of 12-4-0-1 with one more qualifier hitting the superfecta. To me that would seem to be the greatest among positive Beyer Patterns for the Derby.
Personally I would be inclined to stay away from all three negative patterns. A cumulative 51-1-1-1 with Giacomo the only winner. In most years you'll do well by avoiding Giacomo types. The worst pattern for sure is the dreaded C/B/A. No horse with three declining figures going into the Derby has ever hit the frame and only one (Atswhatimtalkingbout) has hit the superfecta.
Here is a breakdown of this years likely Derby starters and the Beyer Pattern they fit into.
A/B/C: Chelokee, Cowtown Cat, Hard Spun*, Scat Daddy, Tiago*
A/C/B: Circular Quay, Curlin, Nobiz Like Showbiz
B/A/C: Dominican**, Great Hunter, Sam P, Zanjero**
B/C/A: Liquidity, Teuflesberg
C/A/B: Any Given Saturday, Stormello
C/B/A: Street Sense
*A/B/C with 100+ figure in their last
**B/A/C with less than 2 Beyer points difference between B and A
This would seem to be bad news for Street Sense and Any given Saturday, while Dominican and Zanjero have the strongest patterns going for them.
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3 comments:
I have to admit I have enjoyed the Derby Angles columns (who cares about your KEE picks, please stop), but I think you need to consolidate a little just so you don't throw too many angles out there, and when one works you can't take too much credit for it. You're a #'s guy so I think you'll enjoy this. You've been great at giving the record of what said angle produces so use those to compile a useful tool.
For instance Angle 1 Produces a record of 4: 1-1-0, If a horse fits that angle give him a score of .25-.25-0, if the same horse fits in another angle that's 10 4-2-3 then his score would be .65-.45-.3 and so forth. Call it the anlge score, and you'll get me to put up with another KEE column.
Good Sir/Madam
I have in fact already consolidated 20 of what I consider to be the most relevant Derby angles into a profile. I call it the Derby 20-20. It is linked on the sidebar but you can access it here as well:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pK74cTgFt4SPw3AHy0i6IXA
Not every single stat mentioned in my columns are part of the profile though.
The sheet shows the "angle score" of each Derby entrant since 1996. The whole idea with this is that if you would have put money down on each horse based on their score (ie $20 for a score of 20 and $8 for an 8) you would have turned a 33% profit while betting every horse in the field! (Every horse that is except those with a score of 0 or less) I have no intention of taking credit for single statistics that bear relevant. It's not worth anything if you didnt find a way to make money off of it.
I apologize for the fact that you dont prefer the Keeneland picks. I do intend to see out the meet though. Luckily for most it's only a 15 day meet. During Derby week I intend to do a summary of all the Derby angles columns with links to each.
in monday's posting Kennedy's Corridor mentioned huge holes in regard to several of the derby contenders/ i assume these are holes as they relate to the typical derby winner's profile/ i really think this was a great point, in that, those who follow derby contenders, and who believe in profiles, if they like a particular colt, they will have to do a little or a lot of forgiving/ the so called super trainers of today have made it more difficult and complicated for profile followers by the way they have trained some of their derby contenders this year/ it is my belief, for many of these trainers, it is going to come back to bite them / some were subject to events and situations in which they had to adjust and over which they had little or no control/ for others it may be a case of out smarting themselves and getting cute with their training decisions / depending on the outcome of this year's derby, there may be a reassessment by some trainers on how they bring their colts into the derby/ i say all of this this being a believer in profiles as a great handicapping tool but not a slave to them / i think i might for example, be willing to forgive a hole presented by AGS over another colt if i felt AGS was brought to the derby in traditional derby winner profile fashion// for my part, in the run up to the derby, i dont think there is going to be any thing good that is going to come out of the Lexington // if you get a 110 beyers from that race, given the starters, in my opinion, all you are going to have is another sinister minister/ / i believe the derby winner will come from those that have already proven themselves// i am going to look at what the contenders do and how they look during or shortly before derby week// to forgive a hole i may have to see what post position a particular colt draws/ i want to know how they track is doing the week of the derby and the day of the derby/ for example, i may consider forgiving street sense if he comes out of post 5 and the rail is acting as a conveyor belt/ at the very least it would give me pause// chicago gerry
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