Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Apr 16th)

1. Any Given Saturday (3)
2. Scat Daddy (6)
3. Dominican (new)
4. Street Sense (2)
5. Nobiz Like Showbiz (7)
6. Hard Spun (9)
7. Curlin (new)
8. Circular Quay (10)
9. Great Hunter (1)
10. Cowtown Cat (new)

It seems like we've come a thousand miles since last week. I think one thing was confirmed that I've been thinking for a long time. No one is a clear cut, top notch Derby contender so even horses with huge holes can be ranked highly because everyone has holes. Ketchikan and Notional's injuries were easily the most disappointing events that transpired. I thought both horses could have had an impact on the Derby but they will have to wait for another day. As far as unravelling what happened in the prep races I'll start with the Arkansas Derby. Curlin was in a totally different class than those horses. He may be in a totally different class than every three year old in this crop but his inexperience is a major doubt. He has not even faced a field of 10 horses yet. On talent alone I think he is top 3 material but you need more than raw talent to win the Derby. He basically needs to get a dream trip or be a super horse to win the Derby. Officer Rocket ran very poorly in the Arkansas Derby and won't be in Kentucky. The only other horse from that race who looks like they have a future is Deadly Dealer, but he doesn't have a Derby future. Now the Bluegrass was a mess. I'm not sure if you can trust the 93 Beyer speed figure firstly because of the pace and secondly because of the generally lower figures achieved on Polytrack. Back in the March 19th Derby Top 10 I wrote that the figures for the Blue Grass were likely to be deceivingly low so I'm not about to be deceived by them now. I have given Dominican the top spot among Bluegrass finishers. Although he has run only on Polytrack this year his performances have been fantastic. The only reason he is not the #1 horse on my list is because he may just be a Polytrack specialist. He is 3 for 3 on Polytrack and 0 for 4 on conventional dirt. I cant make him my top selection without a main track win but I do think he will handle the surface. He also has the unfortunate angle of being sired by a sprinter, but when you look at this horse you can see he should get the distance. He will also likely have the distinction of being the only Derby horse with a Dosage figure over 4.00. that has been a neat little contrarian angle in the past 11 years. The ROI for betting such horses is actually very good. You can bet that Dominican will be in the first slot on many of my tickets. Street Sense was not nearly as impressive as I thought he would be. He did not seem comfortable going wide and he was out hustled by Domincan in the lane. Nafzger has time to get him right but I think he is worth opposing on Derby day. I think I will use him primarily underneath. Great Hunter saw his standing plummet big time. I know he got shut off and I know he is a very very good horse but from a historical perspective he would be the biggest upset winner since Sea Hero. Because of that poor result in the Blue Grass he fits less historical criteria than even Giacomo. I'm not a slave to history but it would be a huge task for him. That means Any Given Saturday has defaulted his way back to the top spot. He is not a solid Derby contender. He has all sorts of weaknesses, but he is no less likely than anyone else. A horse who has been quietly good is Scat Daddy. He may be a forgotten horse a bit but he fits a Derby winners profile very well. The reason he is not the #1 is that I feel that Any Given Saturday is a better horse when at his best. Last week I said that I did not consider Cowtown Cat a Derby horse, well opinions change and this change is mostly due to the fact that a bunch of horses got injured or ran poorly in their last prep. At this point the top 3 horses are the only ones that I would consider betting to win in the Derby. Given the relative weakness of many of the contenders in my top 10 I think the Lexington may produce a contender. Possibly Liquidity will get a third kick at the can if his connections choose to go.