Thursday, April 26, 2007

Keeneland Spring Meet

Thursday April 26th

Race #1 - Deputy Dance
Race #2 - Ludmig
Race #3 - Ms. Sabbatical
Race #4 - More Than A Feelin
Race #5 - Primal Peak
Race #6 - Pauillac
Race #7 - Zurich
Race #8 - Stream Cat
Race #9 - Roshani

EDIT: Unbridled Trust is no value at 4/5. I'm taking the other big priced maiden Pauillac

Ben Ali Stakes
I don't normally do any feature analysis during the week but this race so intrigued me that I just had to weigh in. There is no shortage of interesting entrants in this affair. The morning line favorite and surely the post time favorite will be Chatain. The lightly race, but quite brilliant colt from Angle Penna's barn. He found the Donn Handicap a bridge too far in his last race but still was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths to Invasor after encountering some trouble and rallying to the lead. He's been drilling quickly at Keeneland and he looks set. However he is untested on Polytrack and we know these routes races have been producing some odd results. Eccentric won the Fayette here last fall at the same distance over course specialist Ball Four so he has to rate a chance. But he is coming off a layoff for a cold barn. Mustanfar is certainly capable if he takes to the Polytrack. Turf horses generally do well on the main track here. But another alternative that I find myself drawn to is Stream Cat. I thought very well of him as a 2 and 3 year old. I think he has tons of talent, especially as a Turf miler. But at the same time he is 2 for 2 over the Polytrack and has always appeared extremely comfortable over the surface. His last race which was an allowance win over Perfect Drift may have been the best two turn main track performance of the meet. Still he has questions surrounding him as well. The 9f distance looks set to stretch him just a bit and I typically don't like using horses who are coming back quickly from a big performance second off the layoff. Many times they regress, but at the same time if he merely holds his form he will be very dangerous. I also like the Canadian, Welcome Again, for the shrewd Bobby Frankel. He has not been winning much at Keeneland but he has been producing live runners and this one is as live as any at 12/1. He is maybe not the same class as many of these runners but an argument could be made that his best form has come on Turf and Polytrack. He is useful on dirt but not of the highest class. His only race on an all weather surface was a revelation. Easily his lifetime best performance and a horse is always dangerous when running at the conditions that produced his lifetime best. He should sit right in the pocket behind the speed and could be very difficult to displace down the lane.

1)Stream Cat
3)Welcome Again

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