Overview
Most of the big action is at Keeneland this weekend and you can find my single selections (aka horses to avoid) in the post directly below this one. I am quite interested to see Wait A While run again. She was a big favorite of mine and although the ground figures to be soft I hope she'll but in a good run. Perfect Drift also comes back this weekend. Let us hope he fares better than Funny Cide did in his comeback.
Commonwealth Breeders Cup
This looks like a tricky race but I love Steel Light in here. I have been hoping to play this horse in a sprint on Polytrack for a long time. Back in 2005 he was one of the best turf sprinters out there but he also has form over the dirt. He looked none the worse for wear in his comeback effort and he's had more than enough time to recover. Turf form often holds up well on the Polytrack and I taking him for the mild upset. At the same time you have to respect Midnight Lute. He's a 7f horse and he's been working great for this race. He is the horse to beat and a solid favorite. I'm not really trying to beat him I just think Steel Light may have his measure. A horse that scares me is Silent Name. He has never tried anything but Turf but he is bred for this. He has great speed and purely on talent he may be the best in the race. But he has mental problems, surface changes can often correct those problems and I would not be surprised to see a breakout performance from him. I fear Frankel's Ramsgate but he doesn't seem fast enough to compete with this group.
1)Steel Light
2)Midnight Lute
3)Silent Name
Blue Grass
I would not advocate betting on this race. I think the prices will be short but all the commentaries seem to be leading the same way so I'll offer a dissenting opinion. Most people are saying that Street Sense is not the likely winner because he isn't being primed for the race. I look at the workouts and I see the opposite. I think Great Hunter is light on his preparation and Street Sense will be ready to roll. What this may mean for the Derby I won't speculate yet but I believe Street Sense will win the Blue Grass and maybe by open lengths. Great Hunter is too good to be off the board but I don't think he will be sharp enough to beat the champ. The wise guy horse in this race is Dominican but I don't really see him upsetting this race. Sure he was awesome in his last but I don't see him beating the top two. He may even have a hard time beating Zanjero for third. I think he is the forgotten horse. One of the reasons why he may be forgotten is because it really is hard to picture him winning. At least with Dominican you could argue that if he moves forward he could be brilliant enough to make a race of it. Meanwhile Zanjero is an uninspiring plodder but I think he has the class to be third best here. Most have noticed that Tueflesberg will be alone on the lead. I don't think that will matter. I don't see him staying 9f in top company. Street Sense should win and go to Churchill Downs as a big favorite.
1)Street Sense
Comely
This may be a chance to go against a vulnerable favorite. I think Boca Grande is a terrible bet. She will likely win just to spite me but everything about her screams bet against. Her figures have never been high, the horses she has faced haven't gone on to do anything. But she is a Phipps horse running in New York and they always take money, especially with a profile like hers. I think there is a strong possibility that she didn't train on. She looked dreadful in her first race back, now it was the first off a layoff but I think her connections thought it was extra poor because they've taken her back and put her in this soft spot. They have virtually conceded a position in the Oaks starting gate I think this race is more about deciding if she can still run rather than looking to move her into the Oaks. Boca Grande is also a better horse around two turns. I really see nothing to like so now the challenge is finding horses who can win. Perfect Forest is the first to catch the eye. Pletcher's are always dangerous and this one has front end speed and decent figures. She is more of a sprinter who goes a mile but this is the perfect kind of race for her. Desire to Excel is looking to rebound after a taxing trip over the Tampa Bay surface. I don't think she is a two turn horse but at one turn she is the best closer in the field. She has a bullet since her last outing and she may just gain some status back. I think the horse I will concentrate most on though is Fee Fi Fo Fum. She did superbly well to win her debut in what was a very stop and start trip. Not many first timers win coming up the rail. She was tossed in against High Again and Christmas Kid second time out and again she looked very very good. Now she does appear to want more ground than this but he has a quickness about her that suggests she will adapt.
1)Fee Fi Fo Fum
2)Desire to Excel
3)Perfect Forest
Arkansas Derby
Like the Blue Grass I'm not sure if I'd advocate wagering on this race. I think Deadly Dealer will find it very tough to get in front of this group from the outside and it's any ones guess as to whether or not he will be able to deal with the distance effectively. All in all I think he's a bad play. No horse in this race really looks like a Derby winner. Officer Rocket looks like a solid underneath Derby horse but he is unlikely to win here. Curlin should win the Arkansas Derby at a short price. I think he is simply better than most of these at this distance. He has an ideal post and it looks like a formality. Officer Rocket as previously mentioned is unlikely to win, he is the kind of horse that will win every so often. Hopefully he will get a better trip than he did last time when he was rushed up early on then backed out of it only to re-rally. Hopefully this time he'll come with just one run. For You Reppo is the only other horse in here that I think is worth looking at. He has some good tactical speed and I think he is sitting on a big race. Watch also for the kind of form reference he gives to Hard Spun.
1)Curlin
2)Officer Rocket
3)For You Reppo
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my theory on why many of this crop of 3 year old colts have not turned in many beyers in the range of 104-108...global warming.. believe me if you need an excuse for anything, use global warming/ it also works for mistakes on the job, and for personal relationships// i see 50 degrees and rain for the blue grass on the poly track/ i see 60 degrees and high winds forecast for the arkansas derby// actually, based on the training tactics employed by several trainers of derby prospects, that less is more (duly noted by Kennedys Corridor much earlier this year0, i am thinking that we might see some of the derby candidates break the 104-108 beyers level on derby day itself/ it is going to be interesting to see how the, number of starts before the derby statistic, is going to play out// in the blue grass, i agree with KC's selection of street sense/ all the talk of settling for 3rd like unbridled is merely that and nafzger, like tagg , like a lot of trainers is pretty crafty / i am sure he is enjoying the speculation on how he is going to run street sense/ we will see if street sense can handle the poly track// my guess is that, with both street sense and great hunter, trying to throttle back on a thoroughbred's natural competitive spirit, while not impossible, is going to be difficult and i am not sure, at this stage , if it is all that smart// my thinking through is that borel may let street sense basically do what he wants to do and try to win it in the last 3/8ths of a mile while attempting to finish up with a 23 last quarter/ i also believe borel, with the small field, will experiment with trying to win off the 3 or 4 path/ he would do this because of the large number of entrants in the derby where he might have to win from somewhere else other than the rail/ we'll see/ in any event, we all know great hunter and street sense will not be abused-all out because it just would not make any sense due to the fact both colts have already earned a spot in the derby// street sense may have enough raw talent, whatever borel does with him, to beat this group/// i agree with KC's selection of curlin// although i was disappointed by the lightly raced cobalt blue/ i think curlin, having won on the track already, could be something special// let's see if a really big run comes from the colt// the odds are some colt is going to do something big one of these days/ why not curlin// finally, i wore my winter coat this week// the one with the mittens attached to the cuff by safety pins// i also knocked off several inches of wet snow from my car..hey, blame it on ...global warming//chicago gerry
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