Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Saratoga Scorecard - Halftime

Here at Kennedy's Corridor we have been playing Public Handicapper at Saratoga and the meet has now reached the halfway point. You can review the results and selections in full by clicking on this link or just by visiting the sidebar everyday.

My goals for the meet were to show a flat bet profit, have 100 winners and to select all the winners on one card. So far things have gone along fairly well. My record is 166-47-18-30 so my selections have won 28.31% of the time and finished in the frame 57.23%.

100 winners is the target so I'm 3 winners adrift of the halfway point. Hopefully I can make up that ground in the second half. I also managed to get 7 winners on one card. Thursday Aug 9th worked out pretty well for me as went 9-7-1-0. I missed just 2 races, now part of that was because chalk was coming in all day. None of my winners paid more than $10.00, still I nearly accomplished one of my goals.

A straight win bet on all my selections so far would have yielded a $72.30 or 21.78% profit. I'm fairly pleased with that. Also if one were to take the single selections and bet them on top of an exacta using every other horse in the race you would have made $602.80 or 23.83%. I don't necessarily recommend using my selection and the ALL button in every race but you would have made some money.

The average payout for winners that I've selected is $8.60 so the majority of my winning selections are around 3/1.

By visiting the spreadsheet you can see the breakdown of my selections by race type and surface but I'll just outline some of the highlights. Dirt races have been far better than Turf races in every respect. I'm 98-32-9-19 in Dirt races with a 33.52% profit while in Turf races I show just a 5.92% profit. Allowance races have been the kindest single sector. I'm up 73.70% in allowance/optional claimers. The most difficult type of race for me has been the "others" which is essentially encompasses maidens for older horses. I'm winning just 10% of those races and have lost -62.50% of monies wagered.

Another not so successful part of Saratoga has been my analysis and selections of 2yo races. My record is: 14(6)-3-0-1 (-$11.40 -40.70% ROI) and with the other pressures in my personal life I kind of fell away from making selections in all the races. Actually I only analysed 6 races of the 28 that have been carded for 2yo's

My favorite horse of the meet thus far has been Thorn Song. Trained by Dale Romans and owned by Zayat stables Thorn Song has won twice at the meet with me backing him both times. He's used his speed on the grass to slip away from more fancied rivals and he's been very tough to pass. He obviously loves this course and has paid $16.40 and $31.80 for his wins. He may be a good horse for some stakes races next year.

Good luck to everyone in the second half.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

great handicapping going into the second half of the Saratoga meet/ it looks as if KC is playing into several of your strengths / i was surprised at the variety of winners coming from both dirt and turf and from varied race conditions // continued success in this regard for the rest of the meet// also the Royal Highness pick at Arlington was a great KC selection and paid a great price // // other // i had read that the beyers people were having to adjust some of their numbers at Delmar // it got me to wondering whether or not a a lot of races have had to be adjusted elsewhere and how much the beyers people might be flying on the seat of their pants as most the major tracks are converting to synthetic surfaces // i was wondering how many months, or perhaps years it may take for all the speed figure people to fully understand the nature of polytrack and get accurate speed figures // i was wondering how many polytrack races this year at all levels and conditions have produced speed figures that are just out and out wrong// most importantly, i was wondering whether or not a speed handicapper is being placed at a greater disadvantage by the polytrack vs. pace handicappers and etc., // other// some of the things i have noticed about the Arlington Park track is that most all horses having no polytrack experience coming into Arlington do very poorly and it is a waste of money to back these types at the window // also the cushion track appears to play quite differently at Arlington as horses coming from there do not transfer their cushion track form // thanks// chicago gerry