Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Woodbine And The Mile

The Woodbine Mile has gone through several names changes in it's short history and this year it's to be known as the Woodbine Mile presented by Bell but it's still the same great race.

I have a personal affection for this race, the 2006 renewal was the first and only that I was not able to see live. Unfortunately my chances of seeing the 2007 version are slim but its a race I simply love both to watch and to handicap.

The field for this years race looks spectacular, really the only credible horse missing is Crossing The Line. This will undoubtedly be the toughest race for milers outside of the Breeders Cup and given the fact that the Americans have swept the last 3 runnings of the BC Mile it is worth paying close attention to the results this week. Here is the prospective field at the moment.

Art Master
Dead Red
Kip Deville
Le Cinquieme Essai
Remarkable News
Storm Caller

Handicapping this race will be a joy and we'll be sure to take a close look at it on Friday. In the meantime we'll take a look at the Woodbine Mile's impact on the Breeders Cup.

Since its inception in 1997, 26 runners have gone from the Woodbine Mile to the Breeders Cup and have compiled a record of 26-1-3-2. It's not exactly a great record but the winners of the Woodbine Mile have hit the BC superfecta every time they've run in the BC aside from 1999 where Quiet Resolve failed badly.

As you're watching the Woodbine Mile trying to find a good play for the BC keep in mind some of the statistical factors for the Mile.

Fresh horses usually outperform. We're not looking for horses who are coming into the BC Mile directly off a layoff but we are looking for horses who have had a layoff within the last 3 running lines. Horses who didn't went 52-0-4-4 in the BC. Especially oppose those who have not had a recent layoff and have achieved 3 increasing Beyer Speed Figures. They have gone 10-0-0-1 and many of them were well respected.

Highest Last Beyer Figure is not really a positive. Since 1996 the horse with the highest last Turf BSF in the BC Mile have gone 13-0-1-1. There were two occasions where two horses shared the highest last BSF. It is the poorest record by last highest BSF holders for all the BC races.

Prefer horses who did not run at Del Mar. They have gone 0 for 34 since 1996, and Saratoga has not done much better. It would seem that the majority of Mile winners are actually on vacation during those months.

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