Wednesday, October 31, 2007

As Simple As......

.....betting the highest Beyer Speed Figure?

After the Breeders Cup hindsight abounds. People love to point out mechanical ways you could have made money, which are obvious only upon reflection. I'm sometimes one of them, but I do like to distinguish good stats from bad ones and if the angle has no verifiable reason why it works or it was just a fluke that happened in a certain year then it makes for interesting reading but little else

Wagering on the horse who achieved the last highest Beyer Speed Figure is actually a common angle that gets tossed around. It happened to do very well in this Breeders Cup. You would have had 3 of the 5 dirt races. The Turf races had 2 winners from 3 races. So a healthy 5 winners from 8 races were there to be had.

Highest Last BSF
Classic - Curlin, Lawyer Ron
Turf - English Channel
Distaff - Indian Vale, Unbridled Belle
Mile - Kip Deville
Sprint - Midnight Lute
FM Turf - Precious Kitten
Juvenile - War Pass
Juvenile Fillies - Phantom Income

10 horses in 8 races that compiled a record of 10-5-0-0. A flat $2 win bet on each would have returned $30.60 or a 153% ROI.

So what's not to like? There is a difference between what is true and the truth. What is true can be the truth but also it can often mislead you and steer you away from the truth. There is no question that it is true that betting the last highest BSF was a good angle this year but what is the truth?

Betting the highest last BSF figure in every BC race since 1996 would have yielded a $48.70 loss (22.14%). The 110 top figure earners went 110-21-14-12 in the Breeders Cup.

In Dirt races alone the record is 72-16-11-10 and you would have incurred a 16.19% loss.

All in all it's not a smart play. This was far and away it's most successful year. The truth is that there are better ways to lose money.

I'm currently on vacation and will be for the next 10 days so forgive me if the entries on this space are sporadic. I'll try to find some interesting tidbits as time allows but it won't always be possible.

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