Monday, October 29, 2007

And The Winner Is?

On Friday I posted the selections of the Breeders Cup 20-20 Profile system and pitted them against my own. Here's a recap of how things ended up.

My Picks
FM Sprint - Dream Rush, Shaggy Mane
Juvenile Turf - No selection
Dirt Mile - Corinthian, Gottcha Gold
Juvenile Fillies - Grace Anatomy, A To The Croft
Juvenile - No selection
FM Turf - Nashoba's Key, Honey Ryder
Sprint - Smokey Stover, Benny The Bull, Idiot Proof
Mile - Kip Deville, Purim
Distaff - Indian Vale, Hystericalady
Turf - Grand Couturier, English Channel
Classic - Any Given Saturday, Street Sense

19(9)-3-4-0 (-$2.20 -5.78% ROI)

BC 20-20
Juvenile Fillies - No selection
Juvenile - Globalization
FM Turf - Nashoba's Key
Sprint - Smokey Stover
Mile - No selection
Distaff - Hystericalady, Ginger Punch, Lear's Princess, Unbridled Belle
Turf - Grand Couturier, English Channel
Classic - Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Hard Spun

13(6)-3-2-0 (+$3.80 +14.62%)

This round goes to the 20/20 system. While my picks lost a small percentage in the BC races the system picks made a small percentage. One could have also used the BC 20-20 picks to hit the late Double and late Pick 3. The two bets combined would have cost $80 and returned $388.40. The only horizontal play my picks would have hit is the special double linking the Mile races which paid $83.

It is also worth noting that while the 20-20 system did not have picks in the Mile or Juvenile Fillies Kip Deville and Indian Blessing were among the top qualifiers for both races. War Pass was also the #2 ranked horse in the Juvenile behind Globalization. If used correctly there definitely was some value in the 20-20 system this year.

Flat betting every horse in the Breeders Cup according to their 20-20 score would have yielded a -28.66% loss this year. There were a lack of longshots and it was certainly a tough Breeders Cup from that perspective. Betting the same amount on every horse in the race would have lost you -46.9%.

Also mentioned in this space was the idea of playing 20-1 shots who fit certain criteria instead of just playing every 20-1 shot. Here is how the Bomb Squad play would have worked out this year.

Bomb Squad
Texas Fever - 6th
Globalization - 11th
Shore Do - 8th
Timarwa - 6th
Tough Tiz's Sis - 7th
Awesome Gem - 3rd
Diamond Stripes - 8th

7-0-0-1 (-$14.00 -100.00%)

Not a great year for longshots, but then if you had just bet on every horse who was 20-1 or more you would have lost much more because they went 25-0-2-1 in the Breeders Cup which would be a flat bet loss of $50. Streamlining the play to both limit your losses and give you a better shot at making a profit when you do hit a winner still makes sense. Even in a losing year.

Betting favorites in the Breeders Cup continues to be a decent play. Although it will never be the best route to take to find a big score it does return decently and almost always gives you something to cheer for in the lane. Favorites went 3 for 8 and if you recall the advise given in this space to avoid all odds on choices you could have gone 3 for 7 with a 34.28% flat bet profit. It's simplistic and won't make money every year but overall betting favorites while excluding the odds on favorites would have made you 3.62% since 1984.

An interesting stat to put in the armory. Favorites actually excel on off tracks in the BC. There have been 18 BC dirt races where the track has been rated less than fast and favorites have won 11 of them for an incredible 61% win rate. You would have also made a hefty 45.55% by betting on them, and that includes the odds on favorites as well. If you remove the odds on choices you'd have 12 races with 6 winners and a slightly better ROI of 47.5%. I sure wish I'd unearthed that stat before this year's BC.

Another thing to remark is that in off track races not only have favorites dominated but in the races they lost many of the winners were 5/1 or less. Only two winners, Desert Stormer and Is It True paid more than $15 to win on an off track.

It may be boring but one of the best things you can do on an off track would be to include the chalk in all your plays. It also might be smart to hold off on plays like the Bomb Squad when the track is off.

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