BC Juvenile Fillies Profile

On Friday I wrote about a project that I'm working on called the Breeders Cup 20-20. In short it is a profile that is built on statistical guidelines for all the BC races. Basically we take important statistics that we feel relate to the key areas of Speed, Fitness, Current Form, Class, Experience and Suitability to the conditions and we combine them all to make a profile.

The purpose of this project is not to identify horses who can't win but rather to grade the chances of the entire field to help you in your decision making process. The past is not always indicative of the future but very often we can get clues about what is coming by looking back and seeing what it took others to get there.

This is an example of the statistical profile that was created for each BC race. Each race has its own unique set of factors but there are definite similarities.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies

Factors
#1 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races. This factor is geared towards identifying the fillies who are fast enough to beat the field. Beyer pars from past runnings are not used because the fillies lined up do not need to win any past renewals, they simply have to beat the horses they’re facing today. So every BSF achieved in a winning performance in a dirt route by a member of the field is added together and averaged.

10 of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing was the only winner who was deemed “not fast enough”. The Average BSF in her running was 84 and her career high was 82. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 38-1-1-2.

#2 - The entrant must have received the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for dirt routes races in their last prep race. This factor is similar to the one above but it demands that the entrant not only prove to be fast enough in their career but also in their last race. Most Juvenile filly winners enter the race off a new career high.

9 of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. Caressing and Cash Run did not run fast enough in their final prep race to qualify. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 62-2-5-5.

#3 - The entrant must have won at least one race in their career. The Breeders Cup is not the place to be breaking your maiden. Although very few maidens enter the Breeders Cup I want to keep this factor in order to make sure that as little support for maidens is given as possible.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 3-0-0-0.

#4 - The entrant must have finished in the money in their last start. This factor aims to isolate those with good current form. A sharp race last time out is often the best indicator of current form.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 18-0-1-1.

#5 - The entrant must have made a minimum of 3 starts lifetime. Experience is required to be successful at the highest level. We want the horse to be experienced as possible without being over-raced.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 16-0-0-2.

#6 - The entrant must have made at least one start at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. Basically we want to see solid route experience from fillies that are trying to win a championship race around two turns. We do not demand route experience for Breeders Cup’s at Belmont because the race is run around a single turn and I think it’s a totally different dynamic. The last 4 winners of BC races for Juveniles at Belmont were won by horses that had never contested a route race.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 11-0-1-1.

#7 - The entrant must have run in the money in all their starts at 8 furlongs or more, unless the Juvenile Fillies is being run at Belmont. In that case those who did not run in an 8f race must be in the money in all sprints. Experience at the distance is no good if it was a bad experience. We want our qualifiers to run well when stretching out.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 25-0-1-1.

#8 - The entrant must have started lower than 10/1 in their last race. Quality is often reflected on the tote board. Horses that are long odds in the preps usually have to run above themselves to convince their connections that they belong in the Breeders Cup. However regression after a career top is quite common. This is an attempt to identify horses that are susceptible to regression. Or to identify the horses that simply have no chance at all.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 22-0-0-1.

#9 - The entrant must have won a race at 6 furlongs or more.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 18-0-0-0.

#10 - The entrant must have won either a route or a stakes race. We want horses that are either proven at the route distance or classy enough to win stakes races. Hopefully you’ll find a candidate who is good at both but we don’t want horses that have not done either.

10 of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. Cash Run was the only non-qualifier. She spent most of her pre-BC career in allowance company. She was third in her only stakes and route attempt. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 38-1-1-3.

#11 – The entrant must have raced at two tracks minimum, unless all their career races have come at the BC host track. We seem to get the “Calder Flash” sensations every year and generally they under perform. Running at several tracks is not only good experience but often means they’re facing a different pool of competition which is a more accurate gauge of their true prowess.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 12-0-0-2.

#12 – The entrant cannot have finished in the money in a dirt prep race where the top three finishers are separated by less than one length. This applies only to the horses last prep race. Blanket finishes were often signal weak races. We want all the stars aligned form wise. Horses who ran in tight blanket finishes in their last prep are 2 for 42 in the Breeders Cup.

All of the last 11 winners qualified with this factor. The cumulative record in the Juvenile Fillies of horses eliminated by this factor is 12-0-1-2.

Yearly Qualifiers and Results
1996 – Storm Song 1st $5.20
Love That Jazz 2nd
Sharp Cat 9th
Dunbar Hill 11th
1997 – Countess Diana 1st $6.00
Career Collection 2nd
Marie J 4th
1998 – Silverbulletday 1st $3.60
Emanating 5th
1999 – Chilukki 2nd
Surfside 3rd
2000 – Notable Career 5th
Thunder Bertie 7th
2001 – Tempera 1st $25.80
You 4th
Take Charge Lady 6th
Shesastonecoldfox DNF
2002 – Storm Flag Flying 1st $3.60
Composure 2nd
Buffythecenterfold 7th
Ruby’s Reception 10th
2003 – Halfbridled 1st $6.60
2004 – Sweet Catomine 1st $6.60
Balletto 2nd
2005 – Folklore 1st $6.70
Adieu 7th
She Says It Best 9th
2006 – Dreaming Of Anna 1st $7.20

There have been 28 “perfect” qualifiers from the last 11 runnings for an average of 2.5 per year. That is horses who do not have any strikes against them based on the factors, they meet every criteria. During those 11 runnings, 126 entrants started in the Juvenile Fillies. So the profile qualifiers have an impact value of 3.72. Meaning that they win the Juvenile Fillies almost 4 times more often than their statistical probability.

A flat $2 win bet on each qualifier would have cost $56 and the total returned from those wagers would be $71.30. A tidy $15.30 profit or 27.32% return on investment.

A win bet on each entrant based on their 20-20 score would have cost $955 with $1,079.80 returned. That’s a $124.80 profit or 13.07%, not bad for a race that has mostly been won by favorites recently.

Other statistical trends worth noting:

The Juvenile Fillies has been won 17 times by horses who won their last prep race over its entire history. Conversely it has been won by horses who lost their last prep race 6 times. No edge can be found by automatically playing either the winners or losers.

Fillies entering this race with the Highest last Beyer Speed Figure have won 6 of the last 11 runnings. Much more than any other Breeders Cup race.

9 of the last 11 winners of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies contested a race at either Saratoga or Del Mar. The trend is similarly strong with the Juvenile suggesting that the best 2yo’s in the nation do indeed run at those boutique meets.