Man Against Machine

I've finally finished all my Breeders Cup analysis and for those who don't want to wade back through the long winded prognostication I'll just post my picks in summary form.

FM Sprint - Dream Rush, Shaggy Mane
Juvenile Turf - No selection
Dirt Mile - Corinthian, Gottcha Gold
Juvenile Fillies - Grace Anatomy, A To The Croft
Juvenile - No selection
FM Turf - Nashoba's Key, Honey Ryder
Sprint - Smokey Stover, Benny The Bull, Idiot Proof
Mile - Kip Deville, Purim
Distaff - Indian Vale, Hystericalady
Turf - Grand Couturier, English Channel
Classic - Any Given Saturday, Street Sense

19 selections over 9 races, that means I'll need a total return of $38 on $2 win bets to break even with these selections. I would not actually bet this way when actually playing the races. My bets for the card would be more like this. But for the sake of this blog I like dealing with just win selections.

As some of you may have read another thing I like to do in the Breeders Cup is develop statistical profiles and see how they end up doing as compared to my actual handicapping. Basically how it works is that there are several factors that make up a profile. Each BC entrant is given a profile score based on how many of the factors they qualify with. You can see an example of the Juvenile Fillies Profile here. Betting on every single BC entrant based on their profile score has turned a profit since 1996 and hopefully this year will be no different on that score. You can see the full 20-20 predictions for this year and past years by clicking on the link. But I thought I'd post the system "perfect" qualifiers and see how they end up doing compared to my selections. These are horses who fit the historical statistical mold perfectly, thus it stands to reason that they should have a better chance of winning then those that didn't. But again I'd like to reiterate that the system is only meant to give guidance and help you think about the races differently. It should never be substituted for sound judgement. I personally did all my analysis after seeing how the system worked things out and as you'll see from the selections in some areas I agreed and in others I didn't. So without further ado here are those selections.

Juvenile Fillies - No selection
Juvenile - Globalization
FM Turf - Nashoba's Key
Sprint - Smokey Stover
Mile - No selection
Distaff - Hystericalady, Ginger Punch, Lear's Princess, Unbridled Belle
Turf - Grand Couturier, English Channel
Classic - Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Hard Spun

13 selections over just 6 races as the Juvenile Fillies and Mile produced no perfect qualifiers. Cry And Catch Me would have been the selection in the Juvenile Fillies if she had stayed in the field. Many selections seem obvious aside from Globalization in the Juvenile. Honestly I can't make a case for him myself but I've actually seen someone I respect select him so maybe he is not without a hope.

Best of luck to everyone who is watching, playing or participating the Breeders Cup this year. I hope you all have fun and make a little money and I especially hope that they all come home safe.