Friday, November 09, 2007

Weekend Analysis And Selections

Mrs. Revere Stakes
Bit Of Whimsey is a solid and deserving favorite but I still find myself looking deeper into this race to find some alternatives. The Tagg trainee won a decent renewal of the QE II at Keeneland and she always seems to run her race. My only thought in opposing her is that she's not a really dominant filly. On the right day she can be beaten. I will definitely use her but I'll be hoping for an upset. The top upset candidate in my mind is Tensas Yucatan. Right from the very start this is a filly seemed destined for better things. Her connections got very bullish with her early in the year and she failed to live up to expectations on the dirt. Since switching to the Turf she has looked like the filly her connections suspected she is. She beat nothing aside from some nice Louisiana Downs horses in her last two but she did it with real ease. Both times she was forwardly placed, not because she needs the lead but because she was acting so well on the ground. And each time when challenged at the head of the stretch she moved away from her competition like a good horse should and finished up with vigor. Despite the healthy ration of speed we have in this race it would not shock me to see her step up and get first run on the favorite. Albarado gets on her and there are few better on the sod at CD. Because of the plethora of speed you have to use Bel Air Beauty in case of collapse. A quick glance at the form shows only 2 wins in 7 starts but this filly has never run a bad race off the dirt. She's very nice on Polytrack and Turf. She can handle off going and she should be closing the hardest in the lane. Cat Charmer scares me, Motion brings his horses into form sneakily sometimes and most would glance at this fillies record and note that she's consistent but wonder if she's fast enough. Well that is exactly what Bit Of Whimsey looked like last time going for another savvy Turf trainer. I'm going to use 4 horses in this race because if anyone but Bit Of Whimsey wins the race I should show a profit and I really do see the winner being one of these 4. I would not use anyone else.

Tensas Yucatan
Bit Of Whimsey
Bel Air Beauty
Cat Charmer

Red Smith Handicap
The last big Turf race in New York this year. I've always loved this race for some reason. It often draws a big contentious field and this year is no exception. The favorite True Cause is pegged at 9/2. I think the bettors will have to decide on the favorite, and you will probably get at least 7/2 on the post time favorite no matter who that ends up being. Sounds like a great race for exotics. A few horses have caught my eye in this one. First Encinas, he and Garcia did not get along at all in his debut. He fought him hard for the first few furlongs and basically ran an even race. I think he more than belongs with the crowd he was facing, which includes True Cause. Second time out he should be more relaxed, not as fresh and hopefully more rateable. It's hard to say if the public will jump on him or ignore him but you will likely get good value. Soft ground is a plus with him. Operation Red Dawn has been a favorite of mine for a while. He has always looked like a horse who could be serious business once he gets it right. While he figured it out his natural class and talent always saw him run close. He could be turning a corner and I think the distance will suit him. Not a fan of Channing Hill in the saddle so I probably wouldn't use him if he ended up the favorite. A horse who I think will be overlooked is Golden Strategy. The always dangerous Marty Wolfson has his go to guy Eddie Castro up on this 10/1 shot. He's got useful early speed but he can also come from off the pace. Tricky Causeway is highly unlikely to repeat his feat from last time with this guy in here. People may ignore him because he's never actually won on the grass but he's more than capable and he stays all day. He is a versatile horse who has won from 6f to 16f on dirt but his connections have pegged him as a Turf horse and he could step up huge in his second try on the surface. This guy also loves wet weather. A horse who I consider a must use in the exotics is Dreadnaught. Although I had him in this race two years back I would not use him in the win spot here. He has not won in two years and while he is returning to what I think is his best course and distance I think the losing mentality he's developed will see him fall short to someone, but he should be there or thereabouts. He's still a very good horse and he runs consistently at a high level. It's unlikely that too many horses in this race will surpass that level.

Golden Strategy
Operation Red Dawn

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