The Absence Of Thought

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=42855

To exist in the absence of thought is an unimaginable folly. We all make rash decisions on occasion. We get caught up in the moment or our emotions flash hot and we do or say things that we wish we hadn't. But how often to we consciously sit down and think through an issue then make completely the wrong decision?

I feel like this is what Eclipse voters are guilty of yet again. The photo linked above is apparently the best racing photograph taken in 2007. I'm no photography expert and I suppose there are many technical aspects of photography that go well beyond simply liking the picture or not. Lighting, clarity and other things are surely what the photos are judged upon but I wonder if any stepped and back and simply looked at this picture like an average citizen.

It's a curious choice for photo of the year for the sport of racing. The first thought one has when glancing at this picture is "what happened to the horse?". This is a hardly a shot you can show to your non horsey friends with pride. I can't imagine this picture being proudly hung in any racetrack in the world. On those grounds alone it would seem like a terrible choice for photo of the year.

I can' t say for certain but I'd be willing to bet the photo of the year awards in other sports often lean toward spectacular plays rather than spectacular falls.

Injuries are a black eye to the industry and although the horse was not injured it looks like a potentially dangerous situation and most casual glancers would assume they were at least slightly injured. Why are lauding something that closely resembles racings biggest turn off?

Imagine a baseball photographer got a picture of Barry Bonds being injected with steroids. No matter how well the photographer captured his rippling biceps, the glint of the syringe or the beads of sweat forming on his sparsely thatched orb there is no way it would be endorsed by the league as photo of the year. It draws attention to the biggest problem in the game.

No matter how great a photo is in terms of the technical aspects you still have to consider what it's a picture of. The voters that saw this photo take the Eclipse award have obviously never thought of it from this angle. I have to say I'm getting pretty tired of nonsensical stuff like this.

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KC Handicapping: There is no need for the typical weekly review. To be perfectly honest I did not have the chance to follow many of the race so my impressions of them would mean very little. But we still need to do the bookkeeping and that means reviewing all the picks made in this space. Sok Sok won like he should have but was unfortunately bet down quite a bit. He only paid $3.60 in the end but perhaps was still good value for that. The Bonapaw went on the main track and that saw the scratch of main selection Zetetic. Going Wild ran a decent third although this play was basically centered around trying to beat the favorite (and eventual winner) on the grass. It still counts because I didn't specify main track only.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(2)-1-0-1 (-$0.40 -10.00% ROI)

Overall record: 442(204)-80-74-66 (-$56.60 -6.40% ROI)

Weekend Picks and Analysis

The Sugar Bowl
I'm going to lump on a rather obvious play in this race but I am fairly confident of success. Sok Sok is 2/1 and may actually present value because I think he should be odds on. He has shown a good deal of class even if he is only a second tier 2yo. There is no one of his class in this race and it's the kind of event that ought to be meat and drink to him. I think he found his stamina stretched in the Iroquois and prior to that he ran a pair of races on the All Weather track at Presque Isle. He performed well there but his figures were a little lower. I chalk that up mostly to the fact that figures for Presque Isle should not have been made in the first place. It's far too early to establish reliable figures from that track. So I just look at the apparent class from those races. I think sprinting in this kind of company is exactly what he wants.

Sok Sok

Bonapaw Stakes
I'm not sure what's up with the morning line in this one. Stormin Baghdad is a pretty good horse and he might take to Turf. But handicapping 101 will tell you not to take a short price on a horse doing something for the first time. No Turf experience equals no support from me. I actually think quite a bit of Going Wild. This is the same Going Wild that Lukas used and abused through the Triple Crown trail. He was taken from D Wayne and given to Bret Calhoun who has coaxed a pair of second place finishes out of him including a narrow defeat to Stormin Baghdad. Going Wild actually does have a bit of form over the grass. Although he ran 5th it actually was a good effort during a time where he struggled to do anything well. I consider that a bit of hidden grass form and he should be the horse to beat in the lane. Staying in sync with my selection of the Canadian Sterwins last week I am also quite interested in another Woodbine based competitor Zetetic. The pace should be hot and Zetetic likes to have something to run at. He has proven himself to be quite an effective Turf sprinter in the allowance class. Now he's got a chance to step it up. Malcom Pierce has done very well at the Fair Grounds so far and Zetetic could be a square price.

Zetetic
Going Wild

CashCall Futurity
This is a very difficult and confusing race. We really don't know much about how good these horses really are. Instead of going through all the different scenarios I can foresee I think I'll stick with my visual impressions of these horses. Since I don't plan on betting the race anyway I'll just rely on what I've seen on the video and my impressions of those runners. Colonel John has to be the horse to beat. I think he has Derby potential written all over him, he just needs to start winning some races in fast times. I adore his turn of foot and a burst like that can help a late runner get out of a lot of sticky situations. He will be the horse I'm cheering for primarily because I think he's got a great future and I'd love to see that opinion confirmed. The horse I am second most impressed with is Eaton's Gift. I find it curious that they're running this Zayat horse in the same race as Massive Drama, another Zayat horse with speed and that they shipped all the way from Kentucky just to do so. I think this means that the talented but lazy Massive Drama will be taken off the pace and will work on perfecting his stalking technique. Eaton's Gift was rumored to be a good one right from the start and I really like him at Keeneland. He justified my faith that day but blew me away with his manner of victory. He went straight to the front with ears pricked and would not let anyone by him. He seemed to love winging it on the lead and when he was asked in the lane he just skipped away from his rivals. He did the same at Churchill and while his times have not been great he has been extremely impressive to watch. I really have a hard time making an argument for him in this race. He is unlikely to get an easy lead and he might be intentionally sent as a rabbit. His stamina is questionable and his figures are pretty low. But I cant get over the way he's looked in his last two so he's one I'll cheer for as well. Indian Sun is an interesting play coming off the Turf. He's by Indian Charlie so I don't know why he couldn't handle this surface well. I think he'll stay the distance easily which will help. He was not good enough to catch the Leopard last out but that was right on the back of a maiden win on the downhill course at Santa Anita. Going two turns around Hollywood is a totally different task he he looked very good while conceding a huge class edge to The Leopard. Those are my big 3 in terms of visual impression. A good number of others could win this race and it wouldn't shock me but I'll be rooting for this trio.

The Gift Of Racing

I struggle with writing Christmas Cards, once I get past Merry Christmas and my own name I'm usually at a loss for things to say. That may surprise some given the oft verbose nature of many of my entries in this space but I have always been more about facts, observations and opinions than emotional expression.

Despite this literary handicap in the spirit of Christmas I will attempt to convey some of the things I feel blessed to have received from racing this year.

It is so very easy for the dedicated race fan to get caught up in all the issues of racing. So many areas of this sport are operated in ways that seem to defy reason, and then of course there are the tragedies that shake us all. There always seems to be things to fix about this game and while I do advocate for several grand scale changes myself I think this is a good time to put that all on the back burner and salute the things that are truly good about racing, the gifts that racing gives us on an ongoing basis.

I'm sure you are all touched in different ways by this sport and I'd love to hear about them. Here are some of the gifts that racing has provided for me.

Hope - This is my favorite aspect of racing. The fact that there is always tomorrow, there is always one more race. There is always a yearling or juvenile just itching for the chance to do what they love. We're also constantly provided with great stories of how individuals overcame the odds to achieve glory. Horse racing has a greater capacity to inspire hope among its patrons than any other sport in existence.

Beauty - This is where my punitive writing skills do my feelings the greatest injustice. How can one put to words the grace and beauty that the eye beholds. Horses themselves are beautiful creatures, horses in motion are more perfect still. "If God made anything more beautiful he kept it for himself" Unknown author.

Joy - There is nothing quite like the rush of seeing a horse you've backed financially, emotionally or both cross that wire in front. Especially if they've had to overcome the odds to do so. Deeper than that as well. I derive a good amount of joy simply from seeing others do things they love. I see this in the body language of the horses. They love it and it's hard not to get caught up in that.

The Chance To See Greatness - I think the human race is naturally intrigued by even a hint of greatness. Racing yearly affords chances to see brilliance and greatness unfold. It does not always come about nor do we always appreciate it for what it is but the chance is ever present.

The Mental Challenge - I love to be challenged and racing is the ultimate mental challenge. There are a myriad of clues that point to the eventual answer some are obvious and some perceptible only to the trained eye. No one has completely mastered this giant puzzle and no one ever truly will but there is tons of enjoyment to be had in trying.

These are the qualities of racing that will always endure no matter how frustrated we get with the lack of changes or the seeming nonsense of changes that are implemented and no matter how often we're beleaguered by tragedies. These are the gifts of racing. How lucky we are to receive them.

Finer Points

For the second year in a row we take off our hats to a lady, and specifically a young lady. Sealy Hill was named Horse of The Year just one year after Arravale won it as a 3yo filly as well. Sealy Hill fully deserved the award in my opinion. Cloudy's Knight did have a higher TCR score but only just and Sealy hill was definitely more representative of the Canadian racing year. Cloudy's Knight made the minimum amount of starts but was not really Canadian.

The TCR had another decent year in terms of predictive accuracy. It did not match last years performance of 9 of the 10 winners but all the champions this year were ranked at least second by the TCR in their division.

Horse of the Year: Sealy Hill (2nd)
Older Male: True Metropolitan (1st)
Older Female: Financingavailable (2nd)
Turf Male: Cloudy's Knight (1st)
Turf Female: Sealy Hill (1st)
Sprinter: Financingavailable (2nd)
3yo Colt: Alezzandro (1st)
3yo Filly: Sealy Hill (1st)
2yo Colt: Kodiak Kowboy (1st)
2yo Filly: Dancing Allstar (2nd)

I think the most interesting result of the Sovereign Awards was that Leonnatus Anteas did not win the 3yo award. Instead it went to Alezzandro who was the top ranked TCR horse for that division and definitely had a better record this season. Leonnatus Anteas, though, was favored to win the award because of the general feeling that he is the best horse at Woodbine and he finished the year very strongly. I was pleasantly surprised that the voters looked past the reputations and got the right horse.

I think it's a shame that Monashee did not manage an award but more credence will always be given to the races at Woodbine and she flopped badly in her only try in Toronto. Western horses are getting better and better and if things continue as they are I'll bet we see some champions come from the west without having to prove themselves at Woodbine.

Weekend Review

Weekend Overview: Calder does a fair bit for winter racing at the end of the calender year with their Grand Slam cards and racing fans were treated to yet another interesting day from Florida. Electrify and Paradise Dancer both took main track stakes at Calder and while neither is a true top class horse both deserve a nice victory now and then. But the two best horses in action this weekend both ran at Hollywood and Citronnade and Country Star put on a nice show for their fans.

Performance of the Week: It has to be Country Star. The Hollywood Starlet was at least as impressive as any 2yo race I've seen this year. She was fairly wide throughout but her trip was fairly non-descript. Even as they swung off the far turn she did necessarily look like the winner. Grace and Power was making a huge rally from the back and was the most eye catching runner at that stage but all at once the race was over. Grace and Power did continue her run and finish up powerfully but visually she appeared to slow down in comparison to Country Star who simply accelerated away and easily held her safe. The more we see of Country Star the more there is to be impressed about.

Flop of the Weekend: Soldier's Dancer was stepping up in trip to 12f but his connections had to be very disappointed with the way he ran in the W.L McKnight. He never got in the running and looked nothing like the tiger he was in his last two starts. Perhaps he's just tired after a long campaign or maybe it was just one of those days. At any race it was hugely disappointing from a horse who seemed to be getting better with each race.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Citronnade and Country Star both made some noise in their reepective divisions. Citronnade's win in the Dahlia moved her from 3rd to 2nd in the Femal Turf division. It likely won't be anough to get her an award since she is not a popular public choice but she has had a very fine year and led this division for much of the first half of the year. Country Star looks like an emerging star and has vaulted to 2nd place in the Two Year Old Female Division. Although she may arguably have more talent than Indian Blessing I think the ranking is correct in stating that she is less accomplished at this point.

Tip O’the Cap: This goes to Canadian Eugene Melnyk for his fantastic week. His excellent filly Sealy Hill was rewarded for her superb season with a trio of Sovereign awards including Horse of the Year. Melnyk himself took the top owner award and he even managed a stakes win at the Fair Grounds with Sterwins. I suppose his great week would also have include his Ottawa Senators going undefeated in their last five games.

KC Handicapping: Sterwins was bet down to 3/1 favoritism and won like he should have so while I was pleased with the result I wasn't too happy to lose a few bucks on the price. BR's Girl and Meribel continued with their losing ways. Both look like horses who lack the mental ability to win. The miss of the weekend was Redaspen in the La Prevoyante. Three weeks agi in this space I wrote that Redaspen was a great win bet next time out. But when I saw that she was lining up against Dalvina at a distance far beyond anything she had tried before I chickened out and had to watch her win nicely at 8/1.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(3)-1-0-1 (+$2.20 +36.67% ROI)
Overall record: 440(202)-79-74-65 (-$56.20 -6.38% ROI)

Weekend Picks and Analysis

Buddy Diliberto Memorial Handicap
The Fair Grounds is not a usual haunt for me but this race is unique in that it features form from two places that I am more familiar with, Kentucky and Woodbine. This is a pretty tough field for just $60k. I personally think a lot of Sterwins. He showed a lot of promise early on in his career but never seemed to reach the next level on the dirt. Since switching to the grass he's been excellent. His loss last time out can be forgiven because of the ground. I think we'll see the form that saw him finish just a length adrift of Cloudy's Knight. He's not typically a fast workhorse, but he recorded a bullet two works back. The last time he had a bullet was just prior to facing Cloudy's Knight in the Sky Classic and that was his best career performance. He should get a nice trip just outside the speed. Ascertain is the main danger but I wouldn't use him off that terrible race last time out.

Sterwins

Hollywood Race #5 (Sunday)
I have no idea how B R's Girl is still a maiden. She was well thought of right from the start but has lost 5 races in a row. She has faced some wickedly tough company though. The big danger here is that this horse obviously has talent but has become mentally accustomed to losing. The reason I like her here is because of the big changes. She switches back surfaces, which often wakes horses up. She has changed barns and is now part of the Pletcher race winning empire and she gets blinkers off coming off the bench. If all those changes aren't enough to shake her up then she has some major mental problems. I do expect, though, that Pletcher and Gomez will get the best from her. It should be an easy success.

B R's Girl

Dahlia Handicap
The best race of the weekend. This race could have year end award ramifications. With a win Nashoba's Key or Citronnade could conceivably toss their hats back into the ring with Precious Kitten and Lahudood for top Turf Female. This is a very good field despite the G-2 rating and shabby purse. There are several G-1 winners and almost all 12 entrants are at least Graded Stakes placed. I notice that there seems to be a good deal of pace this race. Citronnade is unlikely to be helped by that or her outside post position. She has been a win machine in California though. Nashoba's Key is at a cross roads, if she wins again the Breeders Cup will look like an anomaly. If she loses people might start to think she's primarily a polytrack horse or perhaps that she is a shade below top class. I personally think she could lose this race and still be a top class turf horse but I would love to see that tough winning mentality she had. She never won by great distances but it seemed inevitable in her races that she would win. She just seemed to be too good to lose. Her BC effort was not a bad one even if you don't consider that it was the worst turf she will ever encounter. She was beaten 2 lengths for all the money and had a rough trip on the inside. The speed in this race should suit her style and I expect her to be very tough to beat. The one horse I might use against her is Meribel. Maybe I'm getting suckered into using a horse that is accustomed to losing but the pace is in her favor, she along with Black Mamba are the best closers in the race. I have always suspected that her talent would see her beat a group like this and Clement is extremely savvy with Turf horses going west. She'll be running latest of all and may be able to ambush Nashoba's Key right at the line before she has a chance to fight back.

Nashoba's Key
Meribel

Sovereign Awards

Below I have listed the TCR rankings for the Canadian racing season. One of the advantages of the TCR is that it can be used in any context. It's not tailored to America only. The scores are on average much lower because there are a dearth of graded stakes races in Canada. And not only that but a good amount of the major races are restricted to Canadian-breds, thus they are subject to further reduction. I have given unofficial championship status to certain ungraded Canadian races like the Queen's Plate. Simply because that more accurately assesses the value of those races.

The way the TCR system is recommended to be used is to have the points standings be just 50% of the final consideration. The other 50% would be decided by vote. So the #1 ranked horse in every division would not necessarily be the Canadian TCR award winner. We would have to conduct a vote to determine that. However the rankings have proven to be fairly accurate in the past. Last year's Sovereign Awards saw 9 of the 10 winners ranked a top their respective TCR division.

Overall Top 10 (Horse Of The Year)
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Alezzandro -100.58
Monashee - 88.52
Eccentric - 88.50
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Mike Fox - 83.98

Older Male
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Test Boy - 59.75
Arthurlooksgood - 53.86
Car Keys - 53.04
Judiths Wild Rush - 45.56

Older Female
Monashee - 88.52
Financingavailable - 63.88
She's Italian - 51.58
Arden Belle - 48.56
She's Indy Money - 48.28

Turf Male
Cloudy's Knight - 204.44
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
Eccentric - 88.50
Marchfield - 76.90

Turf Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Essential Edge - 50.70
You Will Love Me - 31.86
The Niagara Queen - 31.30
Silky Smooth - 30.62

Sprinter
Bear Now - 74.08
Financingavailable - 63.88
Just Rushing - 58.28
She's Italian - 51.58
She's Indy Money - 48.28

3yo Male
Alezzandro - 100.58
Mike Fox - 83.98
Marchfield - 76.90
Footprint - 61.02
Jiggs Coz - 59.34

3yo Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Bear Now - 74.08
Dance To My Tune - 44.94
Saskawea - 44.42
Alpine Garden - 42.17

2yo Male
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Deputiformer - 45.80
Mikayla's Baby - 45.56
Bear Holiday - 38.74
Kesagami - 36.46

2yo Female
Littlemiss Allison - 45.18
Dancing Allstar - 34.86
Officer Cherrie - 24.20
Mrs. Began - 21.88
Victory Romance - 20.44

*Ineligible for voting consideration.

The awards are held later this week. It will be interesting to see how accurate the TCR is this year. The most interesting discrepancy is the fact that Leonnatus Anteas is not ranked among the top 5 for 3yo's. He achieved just 47.84 because he skipped the Canadian Triple Crown and only had a single G-3 win and a G-3 placing to his credit. Although I agree with those who feel that he is the best horse on the grounds I don't think his accomplishments merit a championship. I think his stablemate Alezzandro is a far better candidate.

Sealy Hill is ranked second overall but I would probably vote for her as Horse Of The Year. Cloudy's Knight ran very well this year as well but Sealy Hill is all Canadian and she managed wins on two surfaces as well as sweeping the Triple Tiara. I think she is the most deserving of Horse of the Year.

The Death Of A Vision

As you've no doubt heard the Breeders' Cup has added three new races to it's menu. When the Breeders' Cup announced that it was adding new races last year there was a far greater reaction, both positive and negative. Many fans and writers were firmly behind the idea while some were firmly against it. I think the majority of us saw both positives and negatives in the addition of the races and were willing to let it play out before passing judgement.

I was personally intrigued by the notion of making the season less Breeders Cup focused. One possible benefit of adding new races that I saw was that it may change the way voters view Breeders' Cup winners with respect the Eclipse Awards. In recent times racing had become quite focused on the Breeders' Cup as the sole determining factor for championship's rendering the rest of the year meaningless. I do want to see the whole year given it's due and while I think the Breeders' Cup Classic is the single most important race of the year I don't think that it outweighs two G-1 races like the Whitney and the Santa Anita Handicap on it's own. The thought was that voters looking to crown the Champion Older horse may not be simply looking for the Classic winner, now the Dirt Mile winner might have some claims.

It was a nice theory but in practice this has had little effect. Part of that was due to the fact that the Graded Stakes Committee refused to give the new Breeders' Cup race G-1 status. Clearly creating a two tier Breeders' Cup. The established races were the "real" Breeders' Cup and the races held on Friday seemed more like under card supporting races. If anything the addition of the new Breeders' Cup races did more to harm racing throughout the year than help it. More horses were attracted to run in the Breeders' Cup and given the preferred preparation methods of trainers this meant that stakes races all over the country lost top class contenders because the goal was to "be fresh for the Breeders' Cup". It is still theoretically possible that the Dirt Mile for instance will take some of the focus off the Classic in terms of year end awards but the effect on the rest of the calender is still the same but to a greater degree. More horses will be campaigned with the Breeders' Cup specifically in mind and the result will be less competing prior to the Breeders' Cup.

As I sought to understand why the Breeders' Cup has decided to take this road I looked carefully at the statements being made by those currently in charge. Statements like "our goal is to reach $200 million in handle by 2010" and “These new races also continue our mission in providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest levels over the two-days of the Championships.”

I realize that we as fans, or at least I, see the Breeders' Cup in a totally different way than the board of directors and particularly CEO Greg Avioli. It seems as though the goal of the Breeders' Cup is not what it used to be. When John Gaines came up with the concept of the Breeders' Cup it was supposed to be an event where all potential champions met on the same track on the same day. It was to be the Super Bowl or World Series of horse racing. Implying that only the best of the best would be on showcase.

I feel that Greg Avioli has led the Breeders' Cup away from that vision. The goal now is to increase handle not the quality of the racing product and obviously the easiest way to increase handle is to have more races. Since when was a championship day about "providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest level"? Shouldn't a true championship be exclusive? Shouldn't the bulk of the efforts be geared towards attracting the actual best horses on the planet? The theory that more racing equals more handle is not even a sound one but it seems to be the course that the Breeders' Cup is pursuing. In their statement they mention wanting to make the Breeders' Cup a bigger entertainment product for the fans, the sponsors and television. Notably missing from the mission statement is a commitment to benefiting racing, the sport itself.

I suppose we knew this already, the different factions in racing are primarily concerned with enlarging their own piece of the pie and they care very little about what benefits the sport itself. It's just sad to see it once again put into practice.

As for the specific implementation of the races themselves it seems like the ideas were rushed and half baked. Three new races have been added and none of them have true divisional status in North America. There are no awards to give out for the best 2yo Turf Filly, or Dirt Stayer and although the Turf Sprint division does exist worldwide it does not really exist in North America, beyond the listed stakes race level.

The Dirt Marathon is not even a marathon and the distance of 12f is nearly an impossible one for many of the tracks in North America to host. I believe I'm correct in saying that there are no Graded Stakes aside from the Belmont Stakes that are run at 12f on the dirt. Apparently racing secretaries have pledged to start carding a few more distance races to serve as preps but let's be honest. The Dirt Marathon will be full of claimers and allowance horses. The favorites for the event will be the allowance level horses who happen to win the newly carded $50k overnight stakes races. Any horse who is good enough to run at a high level over 12f on the dirt will attempt to win the Classic which offers 10 times the money.

Europeans are not going to be attracted to this race because 12f is a middle distance in Europe and Turf is clearly the preferred surface. They've already got a 12f Turf race so the only way to attract overseas stayers like Yeats and Septimus is to make the race a true stayers affair, perhaps over the distance of 2 miles. Even then the fact that it's on dirt will not bring the Europeans over in numbers.

I'm all for encouraging long distance racing in North America, but this is putting the cart before the horse. Use the money to create a division first. Then when you do have the basis to create a championship race don't make it's value a measly $500k. The message is clear, there isn't any value in sticking around for Dirt Marathon. It's far better to be a moderately useful 2yo on the grass. You're playing for double the money and it's not nearly as difficult to get there.

It makes sense once you understand the context of the Breeders' Cup mission of getting more handle and providing an opportunity for everyone to run. But for those of us stuck in the past still thinking that the Breeders' Cup is a championship event we have to ask. Which "highest level" horses were not at the Breeders' Cup last year that you think you can attract with the new races this year?

The answer is that there were virtually no healthy G-1 level horses who skipped the BC because they could not find a suitable race. There simply aren't more than 100 G-1 level horses in America. In fact there are probably only around 50 or 60 and the Breeder's Cup already attracts more than 100 horses with its premier eight races. The new races boast $5.5 million dollars in purses. Instead of throwing that money at turf maiden race winners or allowance class geldings how about using that money to subsidize championship level horses who happen not to be nominated to the Breeders Cup? How about using the money to entice foreign participation like Dubai, Japan and Hong Kong do?

You want to increase handle? Then realize that most casual bettors lose money, so by day two of the Breeders Cup their wallets will be lighter and they won't be able to bet as heavily on the main races. How about raising handle by attracting bigger bettors? Since most of the huge bettors on earth are based in Europe and Asia, use your money to attract hometown horses that these bettors will want to back. The Japanese in particular travel in droves to the Arc d'Triomphe when they have a horse with a shot and they bet heavily because betting heavily is a part of their current culture. The handle in Asia is immense, find a way to get those people attending the Breeders' Cup.

These suggestions are far from perfect but they are at least aimed increasing the quality of the existing races instead of diluting the overall quality of the event by attracting horses of ever decreasing quality. They are aimed at preserving the original vision and intent of the Breeders' Cup. Although the Breeders' Cup in its original form was far from flawless, in it's inception it was created with the good of the sport at heart. The intent and vision that Mr. Gaines had for this event is something that should be respected and upheld. Mr. Avioli instead has decided to put that vision to rest. The sport is the poorer for it.

Weekend Review

Weekend Overview: Evening Attire was the highlight of the American racing weekend, most of the other big news came from Hong Kong where once again they staged a top class meet that featured fantastic fields and classy winners. Sacred Kingdom is officially the new king of turf sprinting. This once beaten budding star was fantastic at Sha Tin, hopefully his connections decide to go international with him. Maybe even a tilt at the new BC Turf Sprint, we can always cross our fingers.

Performance of the Week: How about the gallant old Evening Attire missing the break and appearing to be not doing enough in mid stretch only to come alive and run down the loose speed. This was one of those moments I wished I could have witnessed live. It's not a race that will go down in history as one of the greats but it will likely live on as the defining race of Evening Attire's storied career. Every fan of racing in NY will remember this race forever. It may even result in him getting his own stakes race at Aqueduct. I think it would be fitting if they renamed the Queen's County.

Race of the Week: The race of the week was definitely the Hong Kong Mile. For those who haven't seen it follow the link provided. A top class field of milers going to post and just a nose to separate the top two in a very fast finish. Good Ba Ba just got the better of improving European Creachadoir with the fantastic filly Darjina back in third.

Flop of the Weekend: Ravel was supposed to have a coming out party in the Native Diver, instead he looked uncomfortable all the way around and he had no kick. Perhaps it's a good sign that he ran 4th without showing much but a 4th place finish still stands out as a terrible underachievement for this "superstar to be".

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Not much action atop the standings as you'd expect from a quiet week. Doctor Dino did move to 11th overall with this win in the Hong Kong Vase. He is not eligible to win any TCR awards because he did not make a minimum of 3 starts in North America but he did start here at least once so his name appears on the overall ranking. For comparison's sake he would rank 4th in the Turf Male division. Sunriver moved to 8th in the Turf division with his big win at Hollywood. He might be the American horse to beat in the Breeders Cup next year.

Tip O’the Cap: Evening Attire deserves a standing ovation for his gutsy performance in the Queens County but I like to try to be original so this week's tip o'the cap goes to Frankie Dettori who plainly out rode Mick Kinane in the Hong Kong Gold Cup. It was the biggest race of the weekend by far and Dettori on Ramonti showed Kinane a thing or two about timing and judging the pace. Viva Pataca was brave in defeat and Kinane did not necessarily ride him poorly it's just that Frankie rode a textbook race on a very brave horse who has stuck his neck out and reached for the line on more than one occasion this year.

KC Handicapping: Another tough week of handicapping. The surface and conditions switch did not help Isipingo or Champs Elysees to get out of their funk. Ravel and Cave's Valley simply ran poorly and Spring House did as well as could be expected with a bad ride and the level of competition he was facing. I got the pace all wrong in the Hollywood Turf Cup I though for sure the other Frankel horse would press Sunriver but he didn't put any pressure of note on him and Sunriver is too classy to leave alone.

My Hong Kong Analysis worked out much better. It's a shame those bets don't count. I selected 12 horses over 4 races and the cumulative record was 12-2-2-1. My top picks went just 1 for 4 but Doctor Dino was about a 7/1 winner, he was my best bet of the meet as well. Ramonti was about 4/1 so all in all I would have made money flat betting those selections to win.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-0-1-2 (-$10.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 437(199)-78-74-64 (-$58.40 -6.68% ROI)

Weekend Picks and Analysis

Delta Jackpot Stakes
This is probably the best field ever assembled for the Delta Jackpot. Although Cave's Valley is listed at 6/1 on the morning line I think there is a good chance that he'll be the post time favorite. He seems to be the wise guy selection. I don't blame anyone for selecting him. He is one of my top 10 Derby hopes and I do expect him to run at least first or second in here. Anything less may see his reputation severely downgraded in my mind. But Cave's Valley, unlike the morning line favorite Z Humor, has all the right tools to beat this field on this track. It's a 6f bullring so a one paced plodder like Z Humor might be up against it. While the quick and agile Cave's Valley should have no trouble with the turns and short stretch at all. The pace should be solid so I expect that Cave's Valley will be rated. Another horse I like in here is Racecar Rhapsody. I think he'll turn into a very good one but my feeling is that Cave's Valley is simply better. I don't really like taking Cave's Valley if he dips below 3/1 but he is the horse that I consider to be the most likely winner.

Cave's Valley

Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes
This is a much more open race than I was expecting. Sunriver and Champs Elysees have been getting all the attention but this race could be won by several different horses. Spring House has to be respected as he has really improved since coming to Canani. I think they took a race or two to figure him out but the Carleton Burke was a coming of age for him and I expect him to build off that performance. They found that the best way to ride him is relatively close but don't move him early. Soft ground should not be a problem for him and he should get a nice pace to track. Sudan is a wild card in this race but you have to think that his best form could be good enough. He gave Rail Link and Red Rocks a few good contests as a 3yo but has never really been on track as an older horse. I'm inclined to go against him but I do respect his chances. Sunriver is likely to be undone by the ground and the presence of Cheif Running Bear and Heroi Do Bafra. I think both of those horses might show speed and although Sunriver's is classier than both of them their pressure should take it's toll. Champs Elysees is definitely the horse to beat. He should get a good pace to run at, he's got the super patient Leparoux on board. His breeding is second to none and the distance and ground she be no problem. What I don't like is that he might be even money unless the bettors really come in for Sunriver. I think perhaps that Spring House could get the jump on Champs Elysees and just maybe he'll have enough to hold him off, but I'd use both just in case.

Spring House
Champs Elysees

Native Diver Handicap
I was not going to even look at this race. It seemed like a spot tailor made for Ravel but when I did decide to give it a cursory glance I noticed a few interesting alternatives to Pletcher's super horse in waiting. There is no question that Ravel has looked phenomenal in his career to date and likely he should cream this field and go on to be one of the top older horses in the nation. But so far in his career he has not yet had that huge breakout performance, essentially if he only runs back to his career best then he's beatable. It's possible that he could improve on his career best but he's a 3yo against stakes quality older males for the first time and he's drawn the rail. I was mildly interested in Bold Chieftain but I think he's reached his peak and third place would be a good result for him. Racketeer is a very good horse on his day, he even managed to beat Awesome Gem who later ran third in the BC Classic. But I don't love the layoff against a group that is mostly fresh but has the advantage of recency. I'm intrigued by Isipingo, I always like to figure out why horses are entered in the races they end up in. Isipingo has never run on any surface but Turf and he's been competing well against some of the principles in the Hollywood Turf Cup, yet they elected to go on the all weather surface instead. I think one of the main factor's behind that decision is the distance. Isipingo will do far better at 9f than he will at 12f. His breeding is curious as it definitely suggests turf however his sire did win his only North American dirt start in dominant fashion. They are still trying to figure this horse out but if his Turf form translates directly to Cushion Track he will be right in there. He likes to stalk the pace and make a move once the real running begins, basically identical to what Ravel will be hoping to do except Isipingo has a better draw in post 5. This is a horse who is still learning after 10 career starts but he has already run well enough to nearly beat The Tin Man. Another real positive factor for him is that he seems to be coming into his own physically. I was very impressed with how his coat looked and how well muscled he was in the Carleton Burke as compared to what he looked like in the summer.

Isipingo
Ravel

Hong Kong International Races

Overview: The Hong Kong International Races are an annual highlight for me. There are three big international race meetings all year that I consider to be championship type events. The Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup and the Hong Kong International. The quality of racing really is that good. Now they do not offer any racing aside from Turf racing so it does not typically attract much American participation, but neither does the Breeders Cup attract much Asian or Australian competition. Over the four Hong Kong International races you’ll see horses from Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. One of the best things about the Hong Kong International meeting is the information they make available to the fans free of charge. You can get Past Performances (below), watch the workouts, see a few races from the International participants and of course you can watch any race conducted in Hong Kong over the last year as well as viewing all the past HKIR events.

In this years events we have a ton of good story lines and plenty of high profile races. In the Sprint we have Australian Horse of the Year Miss Andretti facing superstar to be Sacred Kingdom. In the Mile Darjina will be a hot favorite. Dylan Thomas will try to end his season off in style in the Vase and then in the Hong Kong Cup we have Viva Pataca against archrival Vengence of Rain. I’ll do my best to handicap these races but given the different structure of the gambling scene and the different currency involved these picks will not count towards the blog handicapping scorecard. These are just some novelty plays.

Hong Kong Sprint
I wish this were just as simple as Miss Andretti vs Sacred Kingdom but there are many more horses capable of winning this race, not the least of which Absolute Power who won this race by a record margin last year while setting a track record. The first thing that stands out to me is that all the principles like to be ridden from off the pace, which is an odd phenomenon in a Sprint race. There is virtually no early speed in here at all and I think that gives a slight advantage to Why Be, the highest rated horse in Singapore. He likes to go to the front and he might control this race. Having only run in Singapore his chances against international competition are not though of as excellent but the pace scenario has to move him up. Just two years back a similar situation existed with the speedy Natural Blitz who hailed from Macau. He never looked back once the gates opened. Miss Andretti is clearly the horse to beat in my mind though and she does have the ability to sit rather close to the pace without cover and still make a good run. Sacred Kingdom sometimes gets close to the front but without cover he gets quite rank. I would expect them to tuck him in and hope for a seam when it counts. I think that gives Miss Andretti the advantage of first run and if Why Be is not digging in she should be the horse they’ll be trying to run down. Absolute Champion was easily handled last time out by Sacred Kingdom but they still train the old way in Hong Kong where prep races are used to bring horses around, especially 6 year olds like this guy. He should improve off the run and his trainer is saying he is better now than he was going into the race last year. That has to make him a huge factor and with his experience edge over Sacred Kingdom I’m actually going to tab him as the best of the locals for this race. European Sprinters are often scoffed at on the International scene but Benbaun has done himself credit in this race running third last year. His form is much improved this year and it would not shock me to see the gallant old gelding improve on that performance. The only question mark with him is that he likes to come from last and much of his best form has come on straight tracks. If you happen to be at a location that permits wagering on these races then Benbaun is a great horse to use underneath. Why Be is consistent against lesser competition and is also quite the battler. I think he’ll either win this event or run poorly. Miss Andretti is the safe play and she may even offer value as Sacred Kingdom will get the local money. In the end I think I’ll go with Miss Andretti but not ignoring the upset chances of Why Be and Absolute Champion. If Sacred Kingdom is truly the super horse his fans claim he is then he’ll beat me, but I’m going to make him beat me.

Miss Andretti
Why Be
Absolute Champion

Hong Kong Vase
This race is typically dominated by the Europeans and I think this year it will be par for the course. 9 of the 13 entrants represent Europe and between Dylan Thomas, Doctor Dino, Quijano and Red Rocks I don't see any room for a local to land a blow. Those 4 principles should decide this race between them and I'm looking for a shock in this race. I think Dylan Thomas can be beaten again. It's not that he has been particularly unimpressive in his gallops but it has been a long season and he might not be at the level he once was. Doctor Dino on the other hand is the most impressive horse I've seen in the whole meet. He looks colossal in his gallops and is clearly a horse in fine form right now. His form is already nearly good enough to tackle Dylan Thomas. Add in his peak physical condition and his proven ability to ship and run well and I think Doctor Dino is your winner. He has not been the distance yet but he should easily stay 12f on this course. It's what they would call a "soft" or "easy" 12f. I also think Red Rocks is sitting on a big race. Not sure if he's up to winning the contest but I do expect one of his best efforts of the campaign. He should be running late and could do as well as second or even first should some bad luck befall Dylan and the Doctor. I'm not big on Quijano, I think he is a shade below top class and he looks a little gaunt right now. His form on paper looks okay but my suspicion is that he is not as good as the form suggests.

Doctor Dino
Dylan Thomas
Red Rocks

Hong Kong Mile
Always a very even contest, the Sprint is dominated by Australian breds and the Vase by Europeans but the Mile is routinely won by an eclectic mix of horses from all over. There is no regional advantage and this is one race where the locals have a really strong shout despite the presence of some tough Europeans. Darjina and Excellent Art have dominated much of the pre-race build up. Two of Europe's finest milers without a doubt. Good Ba Ba is drawing a lot of local support after a fine win in the local trial. I think Excellent Art is vulnerable. He always comes with a run but losing is a mindset and Excellent Art is in the habit of not getting by. The pace should be solid so it might setup for him but I'm leaning against. Darjina on the other hand is not a great horse to oppose. She has looked in fine form and on any ground aside from soft she has been spectacular. She figures to get her type of ground in this race and it is hard not to see her doing her best. The only real question mark is traffic, when you come from the back you need some luck in running. I'm not a fan of Good Ba Ba at all. I think he's a terrible gamble to take off that big performance in the prep race. He's a decent sort but quite beatable. I much prefer Floral Pegasus to him. Floral Pegasus was just a length behind Ramonti in this fixture last year and he has since had surgery to correct his breathing. He was not at all ready in his first start back and he nearly denied Good Ba Ba in the Trial. They still use prep races in the traditional sense in Hong Kong and I think this is a horse that moves up off that race. I think he'll be primed and ready to spring the surprise. Kongo Rikishio should set a strong gallop and may be largely uncontested but I don't see him being able to outrun this field. I'll take Floral Pegasus in a tight decision over Darjina with Excellent Art or Joyful Winner coming in third.

Floral Pegasus
Darjina
Excellent Art

Hong Kong Cup
This race is all about two horses. Vengence of Rain and Viva Pataca. Ramonti has been entered and some will give him a chance but aside from his class and enormous heart he does not have much going for him. He is the horse they'll both have to pass but I think the final furlong will find him out and he won't be able to withstand two legitimate G-1 level 10f horses. He is streets above the rest of the chaff in this race so he should stay on for third but this race is about Hong Kong's leading pair. In the Spring these two had it out 3 times with Viva Pataca taking the last two of those meetings. It is that form that will see him slightly favored here. But I think those races were not as conclusive as the 3 length winning margin in the Champions & Chater suggests. Popular opinion is that Vengence of Rain was slightly superior when they first met but by the end of the head to head matchups Viva Pataca had improved beyond the 7 year old. My personal impression was that Vengence of Rain looked tired after his trip to Dubai. He never had the same punch and in any event he is probably not as good over 12f. But 10f is right up his alley and I loved his prep comeback. Viva Pataca took a 10f trial race in fine style but Venegence of Rain was intentionally entered in a spot where he had little to no chance. He was never going to beat good milers over their preferred distance but he came with a huge run in the final furlong to be 5th. That race should set him up beautifully for yet another win in the Hong Kong Cup. He is fresh and his trainer knows how to get him set up for a big day. I think his marked preference for the course and distance stands him in good stead against Viva Pataca.

Vengence Of Rain
Viva Pataca
Ramonti

Derby Top 10

Starting in the new year I'll be updating my personal Derby Top 10 on a weekly basis, until then I'll just post my initial list. I apologize for it's length. I promise that the weekly updates won't be nearly this long. I just wanted to give you all an idea of why I liked these specific horses. From this point on the Top 10 will be focused primarily on recent occurances not past accomplishments, but I felt a solid base of context was necessary. That and I just started writing and didn't realize how much I'd done until it was too late!

Derby Top 10 - December

1. War Pass
2. Colonel John
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Pyro
5. Court Vision
6. Cave’s Valley
7. Kodiak Kowboy
8. Majestic Warrior
9. Wise Answer
10. Riley Tucker

War Pass had to be put on top of the list at this point because the reality is that no horse has proven himself to be in the same class as him thus far and it is entirely possible that we are simply witnessing one of the great talents of our time. That often gets said about 2yo’s that look promising but War Pass is utterly dominant and has received the highest speed figures of any 2yo on record. Some talk warily of his ability to stretch out or what might happen to him when he is faced with a speed duel but his competition tried that in the BC Juvenile and no horse in that race was capable of going with him early and of course none could catch him late. This was not merely a front running score it was a clear display from War Pass that he is in a different class. For the record I’m not fond of how Zito prepares his Triple Crown horses but War Pass could be good enough to overcome that. Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest, the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease. He has not yet run on real dirt and so far Tiznow’s progeny has been better on All-Weather tracks but I’m not going to assume that’s a problem until it becomes one. Tale Of Ekati is a horse I regard very highly. I disliked him in the Juvenile because I thought he was not prepared the right way for it. Still he ran a good race to be 4th while appearing not to get a hold of the track. He’s a quick horse who I think we’ve yet to see the best of. Tagg should take him along the traditional Gulfstream/Aqueduct route and I expect him to be a dominant horse in the preps. I have Pyro ranked 4th despite his fine late closing finishes and good speed figures. I do love the way he runs on and one can hardly be blamed for losing to War Pass but he’s lost to him 3 times in a row and that kind of dominance can effect a horse mentally. I want to see him start to win some races and he should get a chance to do that at the Fair Grounds. Court Vision has everything you could ask for from a Derby prospect except for the fact that he seems about 10 lengths slower than the best of this crop. He may improve as time goes on and a look at his record and accomplishments without race times make him a peer or War Pass. But this is the value of speed figures. When they are consistently slow it often indicates that the horse is slow. I have a wary eye on Court Vision if he does not start to get fast in a hurry he won’t stick around long. Cave’s Valley is a bit of an oddball selection but I find it hard to criticize an undefeated Saratoga maiden winner who has already won two minor stakes races going long. He is 3 for 3 lifetime with a 92 Beyer around two turns, his other figures have been quite slow though and there is some question as to why he has been kept at Delaware recently if he’s so good. But he got an excellent form reference in the Remsen when Atoned nearly beat Court Vision after almost falling. Cave’s Valley beat Atoned twice in a row including one very dominant performance. That form suggests he can run with many of the best horses in the East. He has good early speed but has also won from off the pace and is conditioned by Micheal Trombetta who had Sweetnorthernsaint a few years back. He might take the winter route through Aqueduct or head to Gulfstream after a run in the Delta Jackpot. Kodiak Kowboy is the class benchmark of the generation. Like Scat Daddy or More Than Ready he is a classy and consistent horse who probably has distance limitations but that should not affect him in the preps where he will be a tough horse to beat every time he runs. Do I see him winning the Derby? Probably not, but at this early stage I’d rather highlight a horse who will be a major factor in the preps than some maiden. Majestic Warrior gets one race to prove that his Champagne was a fluke. The Hopeful form did not work out at all and if not for his breeding I would have likely tossed him already. But he was so bad in the Champagne that he deserves another shot. Wise Answer is another horse that is on a short leash as far as his standing in this ranking goes. He’s shown brilliant speed going short and long and for the most part he’s been fantastic. He also got a great form reference from Check It Twice, a horse he demolished in the In Reality who has not lost since. But he might be nothing more than a Calder flash so I’ll want to see him confirm this form on another track. If he proves to be just as good away from Calder he could easily be a top 3 prospect. Riley Tucker is another Mott horse that I think highly of. He struck me as a very good horse that has yet to figure things out. He was far too good for the horses he faced in his debut then ran a good third to Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse in the Saratoga Special. He was ridden too aggressively on the front end that day and tired. In his next start he was taken back and made a good run to the front but seemed to pull up a bit once he hit the front and Wicked Style came on again to deny him by a head. He has since been injured and Mott does not have him back on the work tab but I liked what I saw from his juvenile campaign so if he comes back in good time and continues to improve he could be a very useful horse.

On the radar:
Salute The Sarge – A very consistent performer in California I don’t think the Breeders Cup was necessarily a good indication of what he could do on dirt. He get’s another try.
Slew’s Tiznow – Pointing to the Hollywood Futurity and could be one of the favorites for that race. The form from the Breeders Futurity has not worked out all that well yet but he does appear to be a progressive sort.
Wicked Style – Another Juvenile retread, he looked great prior to the race so I can’t toss him based on a bad performance in the slop.
Atoned – Although Cave’s Valley handled him with ease and Court Vision overcame trouble to deny him atoned does appear to be a solid competitor who might turn the corner and become a good one.
Etched – If he were staying in the US he’d be in the top 5 but preparation in Dubai will leave him with a lot to do. He has been phenomenal so far and Anak Nakal a horse he teased in his last start came back to win a G-2.
Country Star – The only filly I’m really watching to have an impact against the boys. Most likely she’ll be run conservatively but it’s possible that she might get a chance against the boys. She certainly appears to have plenty of talent.
Fidelio – Probably Frankel’s best 2yo male, I believe he even tabbed him as his Derby horse. He won his first start well then looked green when losing to War Pass but he still finished second that day ahead of Pyro. Incidentally he and War Pass are the only horses to have beaten Pyro. Did not show much in the Breeders Futurity but dirt may be the key with him.
Alaazo – A Zayat maiden winner for Mott. He won his 8f debut after an extremely eventful trip. He broke slow and endured some bumping that basically caused him to blow the first turn. He made a strong middle move then ran down the loose leader on Monmouth’s speed favoring summer strip. The figure was modest but this horse is bred to get better and better being by AP Indy out of Atelier. He was obviously injured after that start but hopefully he comes back in good order. He is my number prospect among horses who have not yet run in a stakes race.
J Be K – Another Zayat undefeated maiden winner except this one runs for Baffert. He got a huge figure in his first start and it will be interesting to see what he does next.

Weekend Review

Weekend Overview: Winter is here and this was the kind of weekend we'll be seeing for the next few months. A few graded stakes from Florida and California along with some listed stakes action from Aqueduct's inner track. Many of the winners will never force their way into the limelight during the peak racing season but this is their chance to earn their keep and maybe some will turn the corner. Digger was heartily maligned when it emerged that he might run in the Belmont stakes but this useful little horse has since won 4 of 5 starts. He dominated the Jennings Handicap at Laurel. Check It Twice looked solid but uninspiring in his first 4 starts and even at the 1/16th pole of the What A Pleasure that opinion seemed to be confirmed but then all at once he seemed to get on track and the leader stopped. It created a visual effect that made his race look better than it was but he received a solid 96 Beyer for this route race and as a son of Repent he could improve as the distance lengthens.

Performance of the Week: I'll give this to Control System who got her career back on track in a big way in the Garland Of Roses. She started her career with a brilliant 3 for 3 including a win in the G-3 Cicada but then got injured and did not look quite as zippy in her two comeback races. However in this seemingly even race she looked much the best. She easily took control when given her cue and held the rest of the field safe. She may not be ready to win a BC race yet but it was the best performance I saw this weekend and if Control System goes forward off this race she might be a force.

Race of the Week: It has to be the Tropical Turf with it's tight 3 horse finish. Ballast had not won since last years running of this race but the Graham Motion trainee stuck his neck out to deny the improving National Captain and Minister's Joy. Ballast had to pick his way through the field to get in position and he showed real determination to hold off National Captain who seemed to have the ideal setup. Minister's Joy made a big late run on the outside to just miss. This kind of race is exactly why I love turf racing so much. You usually get a great blend of experienced old timers and up and comers and there is often little to separate them at the line.

Flop of the Weekend: I would give this to Host for his race in the Tropical Turf or even Coal Play who stopped like he'd been shot in the What A Pleasure but at least both of those horses managed to beat some of their competition. Sugar Shake failed to beat anyone in the Bayakoa. She was outrun for a lead she obviously looked intent on having and fought her jockey until she finally just tired badly and trailed the field by some 21 lengths. It was a brutal performance for a horse sent off as the favorite in a 5 horse field.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Not a great deal of movement in the standings as you might have imagined given the rather low profile of many of the horses running this weekend. Oprah Winney missed a chance to move into 3rd or 4th in the Female Sprinter division when she ran just third in the Garland Of Roses Handicap. Instead she remained 5th but closed the gap on 4th ranked Pussycat Doll. Tough Tiz's Sis also missed a chance to move up the 3yo Female rankings. She closed some ground on Dream Rush in 5th but did not pass her with just a second place finish. The action atop the TCR will likely remain more or less unchanged for the duration of the year.

Tip O’the Cap: Hats off to Somethinaboutlaura who recorded her 17th career victory from 30 starts and managed to become a millionaire. Not everyone is destined to become a G-1 winning champion and for Somethinaboutlaura even winning a graded stakes of any kind was seen as a goal reached by her connections. The vast majority of her starts have come in small stakes races in Northern California where winning a million dollars is quite a feat. So congratulations to her, she has been everything an owner or fan could want from a racehorse.

As an aside I'd also like to tip my cap to Patrick at Handride for his look at the graded stakes conundrum. The ASGC's decisions fail to make sense on so many levels and he accurately pinpoints yet another logical inconsistency.

KC Handicapping: The handicapping did not go overly well this week. Fishy Advice scratched out of the Tropical Turf so we were just left with 2 selections in 1 race. La Dolce Vita never landed a blow and was anonymous throughout. Redaspen ran a decent race to be third after encountering some trouble but she looked like she needed a race. She did not have the type of closing kick that would have seen her win with a clean trip. Next time out if she's well spotted she might be worth a tilt again.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-0-1 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 432(196)-78-73-62 (-$48.40 -5.60% ROI)