Friday, April 04, 2008

Derby Radar

Here are some things I'll be keeping an eye on.

Although I won't be betting all of the big three preps I will be watching them closely for clues.

I'm really only interested in the horses who finish in the money and/or within 3 lengths of the winners.

Atoned may be the only exception to that, given the fact that he's had so many seconds in a row I would forgive a poor effort as often horses that are stuck in rut like this throw in a bad performance before they get better.

Colonel John, Denis Of Cork, Atoned and Court Vision are really the only horses who I'm expecting to appear like possible Derby winners after these preps are over. War Pass is a maybe but with the questions surrounding his participation and the sloppy track I'm not what I'll make of his race even if he wins.

It'll take a big race done in the right way for any other horse to force his way into my thinking. Even though I'm backing Coast Guard to win the SA Derby I don't think he'll be a real legitimate Derby horse. Well at least not a Kentucky Derby horse, I certainly hope he's up to Santa Anita's version.

I will also be frowning upon horses that get passed in the last 1/8th of a mile.

For pretty much all of these horses I'm also going to prefer a new Beyer career top. None of them have run terribly high numbers as of yet so a regression in figs might suggest that they aren't fast enough.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I'll be taking a stand against all the faves in this weeks Derby preps as none, with the possible exception of Colonel John, look all that imposing.
Despite his previous poor showing in the slop SPURRIER seems like the type who will keep on improving, and could go off well above his ML price of 15-1 in the Wood if the field stays intact. The extra distance should be no problem, and if War Pass runs out an over/under/all exacta wheel would offer a good return.
COAST GUARD looks just fine in the SA Derby if you throw out his Bay Meadows excursion, though anything near his 20-1 ML price seems highly unlikely. I suppose half that would do, though a box with Colonel John is a must.
I've never actually seen Denis of Cork so my IL Derby outlook may be tinged with blissful ignorance, but I never cared much for Harlan's Holiday colts anyway. That makes GOLDEN SPIKES a somewhat shaky pick, and I'll probably need better than the 5-1 the ML is offering to actually back him. With Z Humor and Atoned in the mix I might get it.

Thanks for your kind words on my Dubai score. Much appreciated.
Now watch me strike out. ;)