Friday, May 30, 2008

Weekend Picks and Analysis

Nassau Stakes
I'm inclined to take a shot against both Sealy Hill and Arravale. Arravale has been out of form for some time now and while I'd like to believe she still has the talent somewhere it's not worth taking any less than 15/1 on. Sealy Hill is the horse to beat and I don't count her last race against her too much but overall I think she's a better Polytrack horse than Turf horse and I think someone may be able to beat her with a career effort. Quiet Jungle is a good candidate to spring the upset. She chased Sealy Hill last year on the main track but was giving away a good amount of experience. In her turf debut this term she took the lead in the stretch but didn't have enough to hold off a late runner. With more fitness beneath her I expect a good race. I'm also interested in Tell It As It Is. Her form is quite good and I can't figure out the morning line of 15/1. She has not really been class tested on the grass but her form on the sod is better than it looks. She really developed as a racehorse last fall and I think she's primed to take another step forward. I'm not high on her connections as they don't win much but this has to be the best horse in the barn by a long way. There is not much between the top and bottom in this race so virtually anyone could step up and win it. The Niagara Queen is another horse I really respect but I'd likely just use her underneath.

Quiet Jungle
Tell It As It Is

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