Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 - Jan 27th

1. Imperial Council (1)
2. Old Fashioned (2)
3. Hello Broadway (3)
4. Capt. Candyman Can (4)
5. Square Eddie (5)
6. Midshipman (6)
7. Vineyard Haven (7)
8. Terrain (8)
9. Break Water Edison (9)
10. Quality Road (10)

This past week provided very little guidance but as we close out January the results will start to come thick and fast. My top 10 has changed very little over the past month and that is because of the fundamental belief that the January racing action is mostly inconsequential. This weekend kicks off the important action on the Derby Trail.

Interestingly three of my top 10 will be in action in the same race. The 7f Hutcheson stakes will see Hello Broadway, Capt. Candyman Can and Break Water Edison face off. It wouldn't shock me to see them finish in that exact order. I won't be too disappointed if any of the three fail to hit the frame. This is still a one turn race and connections are likely looking to get a pair of two turn races into their charges after this one. I'm very excited to see them in action, especially Hello Broadway and the Candyman.

The other major stakes race this weekend is the Holy Bull. This race could easily produce a legitimate Derby contender. I'm not sure who it'll be at this point with several horses looking as though they could fit the bill. I'm hoping the winner fits the following description. I hope they're bred for the distance and also have the look of one who will appreciate a route. I hope that they win the race in a decent final time, earning a Beyer in the mid 90's at least. I'd also love to see the winner show good tactical speed. If he fits that description I'm sure I can find a place for them in the top 10.

After evaluating the pedigree of Quality Road I'm not sold on his ability as a Derby horse. I think he's a horse of quality but perhaps not of stamina. He is still in the top 10 because there is no point in rushing to judgement without a suitable replacement standing by. Theregoesjojo tops my radar list but he hasn't stretched out yet. Pioneerof the Nile is on top of many people's list but I have severe doubts about his dirt ability. Poltergeist is the new hot ticket in town but I'm not in love with his pedigree for 10f either. Neither of the Gulfstream Beyer bullets Notonthesamepage or This Ones for Phil has much of a Derby chance in my opinion. Quality Road will likely be replaced in the top 10 next week after I get a look at the Holy Bull but for now he stays in there, barely.

1 comment:

peeptoad said...

Mine is the same as last week. Expect some changes after this weekend! :)