Thursday, February 12, 2009

Future Wager - Pool #1

The Future Wager is a funny thing, for some reason I always feel exciting about analyzing different possibilities but in the end I've never played this wager and I'm not sure I ever plan on it. I would be far more interested in playing all the horses as separate entities instead of having to wager on "all others" at 5/2.

I suppose for those seriously playing this wager you're looking for horses that you'll want to play on Derby day but at a better price. By that definition you shouldn't play anyone from the "all others" pool. It's a collection of horses that would be longshots and even if some of them do extremely well in the next few months you'll be able to get better than 5/2 on them in the Derby. In the last 10 years the "all others" group in Pool #1 has only paid out 4 times. You'd think it would be much more based on how the selection committee seemingly gives the pool selection process very little thought.

I know This Ones For Phil is semi famous because of his massive Beyer Speed Figure and the ensuing fall out but the horse isn't even nominated to the Triple Crown and all his success has come sprinting. Surely a horse like Break Water Edison would have been more appropriate.

As I said I won't play this wager but here are a few horses that do theoretically interest me at the right price.

Hello Broadway
At 50/1 he looks like the steal of the century. Not only do I think he is capable of winning a race like the Derby but news just broke that he's likely headed to the Tampa Bay Derby next instead of the Fountain of Youth. I think that's a massive positive as it now gives him two preps around two turns whereas Capt. Candyman Can (10/1) will just have one prep around two turns. He's already fast at shorter distances and indications are that he'll be better going longer.

Flying Pegasus
He's never run a bad race and his speed figures are getting into the area that make him a contender. He's got good tactical speed and both his breeding and preparation look like they're in good order. I can't figure out why he's listed at 30/1 when a horse like This Ones for Phil is 12/1.

I Want Revenge
Unlike half of the horses on this list he doesn't look like a sprinter. Yes it's true that Papa Clem turned him back last time but the final margin between them was not enough to equate for such a price discrepancy (50/1 compared to 20/1) It's easy to envision I Want Revenge turning the tables with a different trip. He may also want a traditional main track surface.

I suspect he'll be a hot horse in the wagering but just in case they leave at 20/1 or more he might be worth a bet. Dutrow is a good trainer and I am very sure he can improve this horse. No disrespect to Josie Carroll but I think he's going to make it to the next level with Dutrow and that makes him a contender. Albeit not one whose chances are worth less than 20/1.

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