Thursday, July 23, 2009

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - FM Turf

Filly and Mare Turf Top 10- July 23rd

1. Forever Together (1)
2. Gozzip Girl (3)
3. Pure Clan (2)
4. Look Here (4)
5. Acoma (5)
6. Rainbow View (6)
7. Cocoa Beach (7)
8. Rutherienne (8)
9. Cuis Ghaire (10)
10. Midday (new)

Dropped: Well Monied (9)

I've done a little bit of mixing around but there was no reason to make major changes to the Top 10 for this race. Three notable absentees from this list are the European powerhouses Ghanaati, Sariska and Stacelita but they're all absent from the list because I don't really see any of them pointing for this race. I think Ghanaati is the most likely to come to America but the Mile and Ladies Classic would seem to be more likely targets. If the status of any of these three changes I'd put them right near the top of the list.

Gozzip Girl very nearly took top spot on my list after a powerful performance in the American Oaks. She could not have been more impressive to my eye. In fact she was so good that it contributed to my decision to drop Well Monied off the list entirely. Well Monied ran a good race but she was obviously a class below Gozzip Girl. It's no easy feat for an American 3yo filly to win this race if Well Monied is decidedly inferior to Gozzip Girl then she likely doesn't have much of a chance. The only reason Gozzip Girl is not the #1 horse is because I think Forever Together as the defending champion deserves a chance for a rebuttal. If she looks less than her old self in her next race she could start falling down the list.

Pure Clan continues to look solid as she readies for the Beverly D. She may face Forever Together in that race so that will be a very interesting class of titans.

Don't get too concerned with the recent last place finish by Acoma in the Delaware Handicap. It actually makes her case for this race a bit stronger. Connections may now be persuaded that she is primarily a turf horse and should target major turf events. Dirt races won't change my opinion of her merits for this race.

Look Here is set for a major test against three of my top five BC Turf contenders in the King George. Even an on the board finish will be a major accomplishment for her. Rainbow View missed hitting the board in her most recent start but she was facing older horses for the first time in the Falmouth. She finished 4th but just 1 1/4 lengths behind Goldikova and the very talented Cheveley Park pair Heaven Sent and Spacious. I still think she'll find her best stride over in America. Connections only need purchase the plane ticket.

For the last spot on my list I gave the nod to Midday who has been chasing Sariska in her last few starts. Being a Juddmonte filly she is always liable to end her season in America and she does seem to prefer firm ground over the heavy ground she encountered in the Irish Oaks.

Honorable mention goes to Points Of Grace who emerged from a 4th place finish against Rutherienne to score a G-2 victory at Woodbine. It was just her second stakes race and she got a 100 Beyer figure for it. She'll spend the year at Woodbine and might be the best female on the grounds. Breeders' Cup participation would likely hinge on how she does in the E.P. Taylor which is Canada's championship race for Turf fillies.

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