Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Turf

Turf Top 10 - July 21st

1. Tartan Bearer (1)
2. Fame And Glory (2)
3. Conduit (3)
4. Soldier of Fortune (4)
5. Ask (5)
6. Casual Conquest (6)
7. Vision D'Etat (7)
8. Bronze Cannon (8)
9. Father Time (9)
10. Presious Passion (new)

Dropped: Dancing Forever (10)

Almost nothing has changed in my top 10 for the BC Turf because only two of my original 10 ran in the month that has elapsed. Europeans continue to dominate my thoughts for this race because the North Americans are weak at the 12f distance. Gio Ponti won't really stay 12f but he still be the best 12f horse in the country. Europeans that have talent and the ability to stay will crush the locals.

Presious Passion takes over from Dancing Forever as the only North American on the list. Dancing Forever has been terrible this year and is likely done as a competitive racehorse. Presious Passion on the other hand is in the form of his life. He could give the Europeans a taste of some tactics that they might not know how to deal with. Run off leaders in route Turf stakes races seem to be in vogue this year and Presious Passion is the best there is at that. Even the great Brigadier Gerard was beaten by a horse that took off quickly and just never came back. Presious Passion likes firm turf and should show up on BC day. As of now he's the best of the home crowd.

Horses like Midships and Battle of Hastings are not good enough to compete at the championship level. If you're looking for some home grown longshots take a look at Musketier who recently ran second in the Man O'War. He's not a horse with great established form but he might be improving in the second half of the year. I think another horse that is going to improve a ton is Straight Story. He's had two hard luck finishes behind Battle of Hastings but he is far less experienced than that one. I think he'll prove to be the better of the two. I'm not sure if 12f will be his ideal nor am I sure that he'll improve enough this year but he is worth a mention.

Fame And Glory was the only European on my list to run in the last month and he romped impressively in the Irish Derby. This horse has superstar potential and could easily wind up being the #1 choice. His only conqueror, Sea The Stars, remains unlikely to be considered for this race.

The King George and Elizabeth Diamond Stakes should have a major impact on the standings for the BC Turf. Three of my top five horses will be running in the King George and for many this will settle the question as to who the best older horse in the Stoute barn really is. Conduit is favored over Tartan Bearer and Ask but I think Tartan Bearer is the best of the trio and I'm looking forward to seeing him in action this weekend. If he's the better horse now is the time to start proving it. Golden Sword also runs in this race for O'Brien and if he goes close he could give a good form reference to Fame And Glory. Golden Sword has been thumped by Fame And Glory twice and is certainly an inferior horse. With Look Here and Frozen Fire also in the King George it will be a fantastic test of class. Any horse that manages to finish in the top 3 will get a very close look from me in the future.