Friday, July 31, 2009

Saratoga Diary - July 31

Rain has forced Races 1, 3, 4 and 9 off the grass and onto the main track. Obviously weather like this and off-turf races result in scratches. 23 horses are early scratches and there are surely more to come as the day progresses. The 8th race, the Lake George, may still come off the grass if the rain does not relent. I'm going to tread lightly today with just a few exacta boxes but hopefully I can cash a wager here sometime. I haven't fared well in the first two days.

Race #2
$2 exacta box - Musicsetsmefree/Notably Made/Miss Lulu Belle =$12

Race #4
$2 exacta box - Key Quality/Kid Kate/Pletcher Entry =$12

Race #6
$2 exacta box - Frankel Entry/Maraschino Red/See the Forest =$12

Race #8
$5 WP - Strike the Bell =$10 (Turf Only)

Wagered - $46

Meet Balance = -$96.00 (-100.00%)

My big bet of the day was set to be on Tommasi but connections are obviously worried about him over a sloppy track. We'll look for him to surface again in the next few days, perhaps in allowance company.

I'm left with a few exacta boxes on the juvenile races and an allowance in the 6th. In the second I think Ramon Hernandez is pretty dangerous with his state-breds and certainly the Ward third timer has a huge chance after facing much tougher horses in her first few starts. I threw Notably Made into the box because it struck me as odd that connections are running her back in this company after two horrendous tries at Belmont. She is not well bred so there is little to lose in risking her in a claiming race. Cheap maiden state-bred claimers would seem to be more logical company for her but here she is. Perhaps she has something that she hasn't shown yet.

The 4th race is interesting because although all the horses entered with the intention of running on turf most of the connections seems to be fine with starting on dirt as well because only 3 horses have come out of the race. Mott and Pletcher are must use connections in these kinds of races. Kid Kate starts off the meet for Chad Brown who has won with 45% of his 2yo's. It's a small sample size but Brown is one of racings training stars in waiting and many of his juveniles will be live.

I love the Frankel entry in the 6th. I think both of his horses are live and either could win, both may run in the money. Maraschino Red has been consistent at the distance and could move forward second off the layoff. See the Forest is a speedy bomb who suddenly got good in March at Aqueduct and connections have put her away until now. She has a solid run of workouts and a nice pedigree. 20/1 seems like a bit of value for a horse that could be on the lead.

I don't have a strong opinion in the feature but Mary's Follies is likely the best horse on turf or dirt but soft ground does concern me a bit. Strike The Bell has a huge chance if it stays on the grass but at the time of writing I simply don't know if it will be a grass race. I'll try to get a small Win/Place wager on her if it stays on the grass. I thought she was moved a bit too soon in her last and should come forward off that effort.

1 comment:

Kennedy said...

The Lake George has been moved off the turf so cancel the proposed wagers for Race 8. Strike the Bell has scratched anyway and will reappear with a great chance in Sunday's first.

You may also notice that my official selection in the 8th on the sidebar has changed to Mary's Follies.

Best of luck to everyone today.