Friday, July 31, 2009

Off The Pace

Friday was another tough chapter in my Saratoga adventure. Respectability is quickly fading out of sight. I once again failed to cash any of my spot plays which today were all exacta boxes. I was knocking on the door however with two of my exacta boxes featuring the 1st and 3rd place finishers. I just needed things to fall into place a little differently.

The major weakness I seemed to have exposed in myself is not being able to properly determine who the main speed will be. I keep expecting to see so much more pace out of my selections than they actually give.

Speed did pretty well today but my primary picks generally weren't the speed.

I don't know if anyone bothers to check out my full selections and results at the Saratoga 2009 spreadsheet but I thought I'd point out the fact that while my primary selections for each race have gone 28-5-4-2 with a negative return of -$21.90 for a $2 win bet my secondary selections for each race have gone 29-10-2-3. It seems as though the horses that I think are the second most likely winners can't stop winning. A win bet on each of those entrants would have yielded a $54.80 profit! Over all my ability to come up with the right mix of horses is spot on. It's just that I'm failing at making the final decisions of who to take.

Washout days often leave me feeling a bit depressed. Let's hope for some sunshine tomorrow and some turf races. We've got a $126k carryover for Saturday's Pick 6 so if anyone is looking for a good day to get hot at windows this would be it.


The_Knight_Sky said...

Well I just checked out your Diary.

Apparently, I have a lot of learning to do in the GoogleDocs department.

BTW TBC's Kramer has a new blog up
and he's also tackling The Spa this meet.

Gary said...

The weather has made the meet very uncertain thus far. Capping in advance is difficult with such wild swings in track conditions.

I'm hoping today we will get some sun and a fair track.

The meet is still young, there is money to be made.

BTW, I'm just lobbing picks in the graded stakes. I've learned a few lessons in humility just doing that. Much respect to Kennedy who puts his money where his mouth is on such a large selection of races.

I'll follow your picks today. Good luck!