Thursday, August 06, 2009

Breeders' Cup Top 10 - Dirt Mile

Dirt Mile Top 10 - Aug 6th

1. Smooth Air (1)
2. Georgie Boy (3)
3. Albertus Maximus (4)
4. Big Drama (5)
5. Informed (6)
6. Monterey Jazz (7)
7. My Pal Charlie (8)
8. Mythical Power (9)
9. Wishful Tomcat (10)
10. Mast Track (new)

Dropped: Rail Trip (2)

Rail Trip is the only major change to my rankings for this race and he was not removed because he's not good enough. He was removed from this list because he's far too good for this race. The Dirt Mile has always been a place where Classic rejects go to prosper. Rail Trip could win up being the Classic favorite if he follows up his Hollywood Gold Cup performance with a decent effort in either the Pacific Classic or Goodwood.

Mast Track makes the top 10 for the first time because of the removal of Rail Trip and I think if we're being realistic we realize that Mast Track is the kind of horse that runs well once or twice a year. He has a decent effort recently in the San Diego but he'll likely look much worse in his next few starts. The positive thing about an inconsistent horse is that negative form is more or less expected. He doesn't have to be great every time out. He still has a chance in the Dirt Mile because he'd just have to run big on that day.

Informed bolstered his reputation with a nice score in the San Diego but he's not at the class level of the horses in front of him. Even Big Drama, despite his recent loss has to be feared because of his capacity for the brilliant. Big Drama simply ran out of gas in the West Virginia Derby. A shorter race would have seen him named the winner.

Smooth Air hits the track this weekend in the Whitney and he's likely the best horse in the race. I certainly expect him to come out on top but I don't think it will be the kind of effort that has his connections thinking more of the Classic than Dirt Mile. Smooth Air has shown that he can do 9f but 10f is a bit too much.

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