Thursday, August 20, 2009

Saratoga Diary - Aug 20

I thought that the winner of the feature yesterday was aptly named. Worstcasescenario really was just that. The Adirondack was a complete disaster for both my wagers and the figures upon which I based my plays.

In fact it was quite an embarrassing debut day for the Kennedy Speed Ratings. 9 races calculated and only 5 winners among those deemed "fast enough". It did have 3 winners on top but just failed to break even if you had wagered every horse with a 100+ rating. The value was definitely with the slower horses yesterday. This is the first day of the meet where so many ran above themselves. Still I'll post today's figures in hope that today will be a bit more to form. Only 3 races on this card could be calculated.

Spot Plays for Aug 20th

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Bobbi O./Myrtle Gray/Rogue's Jewel =$6

Race #8
$1 exacta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$12
$1 trifecta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$24

Race #10
$1 exacta box - Flying Sappho/Dear Contender/Beso Del Sur =$6

Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$552.30 (-56.36%)

Ken McPeek has been well off the pace this meet but it is worth noting that he had a hugely impressive winner yesterday in a turf race for maidens. House of Grace romped at 23/1 and Bobbi O. has been a workmate of House of Grace. This horse could be ready to pop as well although likely not at such a generous price.

In the two last turf races of the day I think there is an opportunity to get some prices in the mix. I respect the favorites but I don't think they have to win. Horses like Moon Drop and Justify should be right there in the 8th. In the 10th I think the favorites are very vulnerable. I included Beso Del Sur in the exacta because of the fear of Linda Rice but otherwise I think the tote board could light up in the last.

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