Here are some of the Kennedy Speed Ratings for the cards at Belmont on Saturday and Oak Tree on Sunday. Make of these figures what you will. They are still very much in the test phase but I thought some people might be interested in seeing how the tests are going.
Just as a reminder, the basic premise of these figures is that any horse with a rating of 100 or more is considered fast enough to win this particular event. In my database of races calculated it looks like the horses with a 100+ rating win about 70% of the time.
Showing posts with label Kennedy Speed Ratings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kennedy Speed Ratings. Show all posts
Friday, October 02, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekend Picks And Analysis
I've calculated the Kennedy Speed Ratings (KSR) for each applicable race at Woodbine on Sunday. Unfortunately I could not find the BRISnet data for races 3, 10 and 11 so those have been left out. For anyone not familiar with these ratings the essential premise is that any horse rated 100 or higher is fast enough to win, the others are not. This system is still in it's infancy so posts like these are really more like tests rather than statements of confidence. Still perhaps a few of you will find it interesting.
Northern Dancer Stakes
It's a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I've ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he's in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It's hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he's only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It's hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I'm not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the "Euro bounce" last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That's good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don't like them as much.
Marchfield
Quijano
Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby I'm not sure that there's a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy's Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I've enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy's Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can't fault him because of a lack of information. I don't think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I'm going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I'm becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy's Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy's Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he's a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he's been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he's as good or better than he was last year. He won't be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I'll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy's Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we'll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It's more like the European tracks that he didn't do as well over. I'm hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.
Rahy's Attorney
Northern Dancer Stakes
It's a pretty even race with many logical ways to go. I've ended up with Marchfield in this race. I think he's in excellent current form and 12f on the grass is just perfect for him. Having watched all of Marchfields races this year he just seems like a horse that is coming up to a boiling point. All his races are looking better and better and it has generally been coinciding with him having longer races. It's hard to believe that his connections have given him so few chances on the grass. He won a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown at 12f in his turf debut but still he's only had 6 turf races total. He is 4 for 16 on the main track and 3 for 6 on the grass. He is 4-2-1-0 in races 10f or longer on the grass. It's hard to imagine any of the horses he beat in the Sky Classic coming back to reverse the form. The main threats I see are Quijano and Just As Well. Just as Well is a logical threat but I'm not a huge fan of his first time in Canada and first time at 12f I prefer those with a bit more course and distance experience. Quijano fits the bill as one having both course and distance experience. This will be his 4th race at Woodbine and he has twice gone close to winning a G-1 here. He fell victim to what I call the "Euro bounce" last time out but he should be better this time. Europeans often run extremely well first time off the plane but fade next time out if they try another North American start right away. I think Quijano will bounce back to his normal form which puts him in the 102 Beyer range. That's good enough to get himself right in the mix here. I still narrowly prefer Marchfield but Quijano has a major chance. There are others with chances as well I just don't like them as much.
Marchfield
Quijano
Woodbine Mile
This is one of my favorite races of the year. Outside the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby I'm not sure that there's a race I enjoy more. This field is as solid as ever and I think whoever wins this will have to do it with a real top drawer performance. Ian Black, the trainer of Rahy's Attorney, has predicted that the stakes record is likely to fall on Sunday. I think I agree with him. This race has some decent pace, excellent stalkers and tremendous closers. Every sectional of this race could be run very quickly. I've enlisted the help of my 20-20 profile system to help parse the contenders from the pretenders. You can view the full rankings below but in a nutshell there are actually 4 perfect qualifiers this year. Bribon, Rahy's Attorney, Jungle Wave and Daylight Express. Ventura surprisingly is not among the qualifiers. Daylight Express is a bonafide bomb who surprisingly ticks all the right boxes. His speed is an unknown quantity but we can't fault him because of a lack of information. I don't think Barbadian form is quite good enough though so I'm going against him. Jungle Wave is a horse I'm becoming increasingly partial to but a mile is not his best distance. Connections really should be sticking to sprints with him. That leaves me to Rahy's Attorney and Bribon. Both are fantastic horses and both could easily win the race. I will personally lean towards Rahy's Attorney. I know he had a blowup in his last race but he's a machine at shorter distances and until his last race he's been a real tiger all year long. I think the Sky Classic is just obscuring his real form and he's as good or better than he was last year. He won't be a juicy 12/1 like he was last year but I'll settle for 4/1 on this quality gelding. I still remember watching his father in the inaugural Woodbine Mile. He finished third just a head back of second place behind Geri and Helmsmen. He was never anywhere near as good as Rahy's Attorney is. Bribon may be the next mile superstar and if he is we'll just have to cede the race to him but Bribon has been a bit inconsistent in the past and this track is very different from Saratoga. It's more like the European tracks that he didn't do as well over. I'm hoping the Canadians can defend themselves here and take home first prize.
Rahy's Attorney
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Saratoga Diary - Sept 5th
Friday was not exactly the type of day I was looking for to get me back in the swing. In truth it was one of my worst days of the entire meet. Nine races and the winner was only a part of my top three selections three times. I completely blanked on all my exacta's and trifecta's as well.
Linda Rice is proving that she isn't just throwing horses to the wind and hoping something sticks. She took two more wins yesterday to Pletcher's one. By my count that locks them up with 18 a piece. Alan Garcia also had 4 winners which puts him back in the hunt against Dominguez for the riding title. These battles for the human titles have made the meet all the more interesting even without the fantastic racing we've been treated to.
Spot Plays for September 5th
Race #4
$1 exacta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$12
$1 trifecta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$24
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sean Avery/Mesa Sunrise/Hamazing Destiny =$6
Race #9
$1 exacta box - Peace Chant/Ready's Echo/Kodiak Kowboy =$6
Race #10
$1 exacta box - It's a Bird/Rachel Alexandra/Bullsbay =$6
Wagered - $54
Meet Balance = -$683.50 (-54.94%)
This whole final week has been very tough and today may be the hardest one yet. It seems like there aren't any clear picks aside from Rachel Alexandra and I'm actually choosing to go against her to see if I can get a price.
Race #4 looks like my play of the day spot. I really really like Karakorum Fugitive and I'm hoping that I have the right horses in the mix along with her. I'm also hoping that Mike Hushion continues his hot streak with Sean Avery. Hushion has quietly been one of the best trainers at the Spa this summer and his horses seem to be holding form very well. Sean Avery was impressive a few weeks ago so I'm hoping he continues that today. His race is a wide open affair though so it'll be tough.
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the racing today. It could be the day where we witness the confirmation of the best modern female America has ever seen.
Linda Rice is proving that she isn't just throwing horses to the wind and hoping something sticks. She took two more wins yesterday to Pletcher's one. By my count that locks them up with 18 a piece. Alan Garcia also had 4 winners which puts him back in the hunt against Dominguez for the riding title. These battles for the human titles have made the meet all the more interesting even without the fantastic racing we've been treated to.
Spot Plays for September 5th
Race #4
$1 exacta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$12
$1 trifecta box - Karakorum Fugitive/Soave/Ms Stilleto/Our Golden Dream =$24
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Sean Avery/Mesa Sunrise/Hamazing Destiny =$6
Race #9
$1 exacta box - Peace Chant/Ready's Echo/Kodiak Kowboy =$6
Race #10
$1 exacta box - It's a Bird/Rachel Alexandra/Bullsbay =$6
Wagered - $54
Meet Balance = -$683.50 (-54.94%)
This whole final week has been very tough and today may be the hardest one yet. It seems like there aren't any clear picks aside from Rachel Alexandra and I'm actually choosing to go against her to see if I can get a price.
Race #4 looks like my play of the day spot. I really really like Karakorum Fugitive and I'm hoping that I have the right horses in the mix along with her. I'm also hoping that Mike Hushion continues his hot streak with Sean Avery. Hushion has quietly been one of the best trainers at the Spa this summer and his horses seem to be holding form very well. Sean Avery was impressive a few weeks ago so I'm hoping he continues that today. His race is a wide open affair though so it'll be tough.
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the racing today. It could be the day where we witness the confirmation of the best modern female America has ever seen.
Friday, September 04, 2009
Saratoga Diary - Sept 4th
I'm finally back home and back in the groove. Although I love vacations and the chance to get to the track in person I do find comfort in being at my home base. This is my first post in almost two weeks. It's almost the longest I've ever gone without posting.
While in Toronto I was able to get out to Woodbine to catch Jungle Wave's excellent performance in the Play the King while also watching Travers Day via simulcast. I certainly hope that Jungle Wave's connections have the courage to venture south of the border. He's really in a zone right now and will likely lead the home team along with Rahy's Attorney in the Woodbine Mile.
Getting back to Saratoga, for those of you who may have forgotten I am getting sliced and diced this meet. My spot plays have yielded a -52.66% loss and I've had just 71 winners on top for a -16.41% loss in the public handicapping exercise. The silver lining is that the last two weeks of the meet have actually been positive for me. I'd need the most monstrous final week ever to show a profit for the meet but at least I'm gaining a bit of a foothold.
Saratoga has also been a time when I've been able to test and perfect my new Kennedy Speed Rating. It's not a guarantee of victory but in general the winners wind up being rated fast enough. Just as a little reminder the KSR is simply an average of each horses Beyer's, BRIS Speed and DRF Track Ratings. A rating of 100 or more means that a horse is faster on average at today's conditions than the field average which in my mind makes them a real contender to win.
Here are the KSR ratings for today. Many of the races are wide open with 5 or more contenders. It'll be a tough card but if you're right you should be well rewarded.
Spot Plays for Sept 4th
Race #3
$1 exacta box - Mississippi Hippie/Dogwood Entry/Paddy O'Prado =$6
Race #4
$1 exacta box - Positive Pitch/By M K/Australis Princess =$6
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Biggerbadderbetter/Valtrus/Tiger Woodman =$6
Race #6
$1 exacta box - Weaver Entry/Poppy Day/Adriatic Magic =$6
Race #7
$1 exacta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$12
$1 trifecta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$24
Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$623.50 (-52.66%)
I do see some chances to get some prices in several events today. It may be a tough day to get winners on top but some nice exacta's might be on the cards.
My longshot play of the day is Biggerbadderbetter. He is actually rated too slow by the KSR but I still like him to pull off an upset at a big price. The mile should suit him very well. I actually thought that he was a bit unlucky against Tahoe Warrior last time. His second race off the layoff ought to be better.
I'm hoping for a big day for Ken McPeek as I'm using My Baby Baby as a key in the feature as well. Belle Allure will be really tough and I'm not sure that I like the negative form reference from Cocoa Beach but My Baby Baby should win this race if she runs back to that form.
Good luck to everyone today!
While in Toronto I was able to get out to Woodbine to catch Jungle Wave's excellent performance in the Play the King while also watching Travers Day via simulcast. I certainly hope that Jungle Wave's connections have the courage to venture south of the border. He's really in a zone right now and will likely lead the home team along with Rahy's Attorney in the Woodbine Mile.
Getting back to Saratoga, for those of you who may have forgotten I am getting sliced and diced this meet. My spot plays have yielded a -52.66% loss and I've had just 71 winners on top for a -16.41% loss in the public handicapping exercise. The silver lining is that the last two weeks of the meet have actually been positive for me. I'd need the most monstrous final week ever to show a profit for the meet but at least I'm gaining a bit of a foothold.
Saratoga has also been a time when I've been able to test and perfect my new Kennedy Speed Rating. It's not a guarantee of victory but in general the winners wind up being rated fast enough. Just as a little reminder the KSR is simply an average of each horses Beyer's, BRIS Speed and DRF Track Ratings. A rating of 100 or more means that a horse is faster on average at today's conditions than the field average which in my mind makes them a real contender to win.
Here are the KSR ratings for today. Many of the races are wide open with 5 or more contenders. It'll be a tough card but if you're right you should be well rewarded.
Spot Plays for Sept 4th
Race #3
$1 exacta box - Mississippi Hippie/Dogwood Entry/Paddy O'Prado =$6
Race #4
$1 exacta box - Positive Pitch/By M K/Australis Princess =$6
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Biggerbadderbetter/Valtrus/Tiger Woodman =$6
Race #6
$1 exacta box - Weaver Entry/Poppy Day/Adriatic Magic =$6
Race #7
$1 exacta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$12
$1 trifecta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$24
Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$623.50 (-52.66%)
I do see some chances to get some prices in several events today. It may be a tough day to get winners on top but some nice exacta's might be on the cards.
My longshot play of the day is Biggerbadderbetter. He is actually rated too slow by the KSR but I still like him to pull off an upset at a big price. The mile should suit him very well. I actually thought that he was a bit unlucky against Tahoe Warrior last time. His second race off the layoff ought to be better.
I'm hoping for a big day for Ken McPeek as I'm using My Baby Baby as a key in the feature as well. Belle Allure will be really tough and I'm not sure that I like the negative form reference from Cocoa Beach but My Baby Baby should win this race if she runs back to that form.
Good luck to everyone today!
Friday, August 21, 2009
Saratoga Diary - Aug 21
While I failed to have many winners on top yesterday I did manage to hit all three exacta's that I played. My horses also ran 1-2-4 in the only trifecta I played on the day. Things worked out pretty well. Many of the picks were just combination's of the obvious but it's still nice to enjoy some success. Success has been a rare thing in these parts during Saratoga.
George Weaver went on an unbelievable run of three straight winners. He's one to watch in the second half. For some reason I basically never catch any of his winners. I guess his style and mine don't line up at all.
If anyone was checking out the Kennedy Speed Ratings yesterday they could have put you onto 2 winners in 3 races. Also two exacta's and a winning trifecta in those same races. It was mostly chalk but that's just the kind of day it was. Some horses ran surprising races but all in all none of the winners were totally off the wall horses.
Spot Plays for Aug 21
Race #1
$10 W - Sapphire Sky =$10
Race #2
$1 exacta box - The Mayor/Jazz Hands/Orrsville =$6
Race #3
$10 W - China =$10
Race #6
$2 exacta box - Genuine Charm/Awesome Maria/Sing My Song =$12
Race #7
$1 exacta box - Ice Road/Blackberry Road/Luv Gov =$6
Wagered - $44
Meet Balance = -$538.70 (-52.40%)
I went back to some win bets despite my recent success with exacta's. I think Sapphire Sky was great value when Doremifasollatido was still in the race, now that she's out I think she's a possible standout.
I also put some money down on the nose of China. I really think this horse has something special and I would have bet him in the Saratoga Special yesterday. His connections likely saved me some money by scratching because the Dutrow horse ran out of this world. Maybe Pletcher knew something. At any rate he looks like the winner here.
Not much to say about the two $1 exacta boxes I'm playing but the 6th looks like a great opportunity. McLaughlin is an automatic with second timers and his Genuine Charm fits the profile perfectly. Dynazaper has the look of a good one and Awesome Maria is the deserving chalk. I like my chances in that one because of the strong McLaughlin angle.
EDIT: Dynazaper is out so I'm replacing her with Sing My Song
George Weaver went on an unbelievable run of three straight winners. He's one to watch in the second half. For some reason I basically never catch any of his winners. I guess his style and mine don't line up at all.
If anyone was checking out the Kennedy Speed Ratings yesterday they could have put you onto 2 winners in 3 races. Also two exacta's and a winning trifecta in those same races. It was mostly chalk but that's just the kind of day it was. Some horses ran surprising races but all in all none of the winners were totally off the wall horses.
Spot Plays for Aug 21
Race #1
$10 W - Sapphire Sky =$10
Race #2
$1 exacta box - The Mayor/Jazz Hands/Orrsville =$6
Race #3
$10 W - China =$10
Race #6
$2 exacta box - Genuine Charm/Awesome Maria/Sing My Song =$12
Race #7
$1 exacta box - Ice Road/Blackberry Road/Luv Gov =$6
Wagered - $44
Meet Balance = -$538.70 (-52.40%)
I went back to some win bets despite my recent success with exacta's. I think Sapphire Sky was great value when Doremifasollatido was still in the race, now that she's out I think she's a possible standout.
I also put some money down on the nose of China. I really think this horse has something special and I would have bet him in the Saratoga Special yesterday. His connections likely saved me some money by scratching because the Dutrow horse ran out of this world. Maybe Pletcher knew something. At any rate he looks like the winner here.
Not much to say about the two $1 exacta boxes I'm playing but the 6th looks like a great opportunity. McLaughlin is an automatic with second timers and his Genuine Charm fits the profile perfectly. Dynazaper has the look of a good one and Awesome Maria is the deserving chalk. I like my chances in that one because of the strong McLaughlin angle.
EDIT: Dynazaper is out so I'm replacing her with Sing My Song
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Saratoga Diary - Aug 20
I thought that the winner of the feature yesterday was aptly named. Worstcasescenario really was just that. The Adirondack was a complete disaster for both my wagers and the figures upon which I based my plays.
In fact it was quite an embarrassing debut day for the Kennedy Speed Ratings. 9 races calculated and only 5 winners among those deemed "fast enough". It did have 3 winners on top but just failed to break even if you had wagered every horse with a 100+ rating. The value was definitely with the slower horses yesterday. This is the first day of the meet where so many ran above themselves. Still I'll post today's figures in hope that today will be a bit more to form. Only 3 races on this card could be calculated.
Spot Plays for Aug 20th
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Bobbi O./Myrtle Gray/Rogue's Jewel =$6
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$12
$1 trifecta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$24
Race #10
$1 exacta box - Flying Sappho/Dear Contender/Beso Del Sur =$6
Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$552.30 (-56.36%)
Ken McPeek has been well off the pace this meet but it is worth noting that he had a hugely impressive winner yesterday in a turf race for maidens. House of Grace romped at 23/1 and Bobbi O. has been a workmate of House of Grace. This horse could be ready to pop as well although likely not at such a generous price.
In the two last turf races of the day I think there is an opportunity to get some prices in the mix. I respect the favorites but I don't think they have to win. Horses like Moon Drop and Justify should be right there in the 8th. In the 10th I think the favorites are very vulnerable. I included Beso Del Sur in the exacta because of the fear of Linda Rice but otherwise I think the tote board could light up in the last.
In fact it was quite an embarrassing debut day for the Kennedy Speed Ratings. 9 races calculated and only 5 winners among those deemed "fast enough". It did have 3 winners on top but just failed to break even if you had wagered every horse with a 100+ rating. The value was definitely with the slower horses yesterday. This is the first day of the meet where so many ran above themselves. Still I'll post today's figures in hope that today will be a bit more to form. Only 3 races on this card could be calculated.
Spot Plays for Aug 20th
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Bobbi O./Myrtle Gray/Rogue's Jewel =$6
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$12
$1 trifecta box - Moon Drop/Justify/Grace's Valentine/Cap the Thunder =$24
Race #10
$1 exacta box - Flying Sappho/Dear Contender/Beso Del Sur =$6
Wagered - $48
Meet Balance = -$552.30 (-56.36%)
Ken McPeek has been well off the pace this meet but it is worth noting that he had a hugely impressive winner yesterday in a turf race for maidens. House of Grace romped at 23/1 and Bobbi O. has been a workmate of House of Grace. This horse could be ready to pop as well although likely not at such a generous price.
In the two last turf races of the day I think there is an opportunity to get some prices in the mix. I respect the favorites but I don't think they have to win. Horses like Moon Drop and Justify should be right there in the 8th. In the 10th I think the favorites are very vulnerable. I included Beso Del Sur in the exacta because of the fear of Linda Rice but otherwise I think the tote board could light up in the last.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Saratoga Diary - Aug 19
Week 3 was not all that kind to me. I had 12 winners on top and still lost money with my spot plays but having said that it was actually my best period of the meet. So essentially I still suck but just not as much. One of the main reasons for my minor improvement has been my intentional development and use of something I call the KSR (Kennedy Speed Rating) I've played around with the concept for for more than a year off and on but after getting killed in claiming race after claiming race where I simply had no idea what to do I decided to knuckle down and refine the ratings to see if they could help a bit.
Starting Monday Aug 3rd I made calculations for every race possible. Not every race can have KSR's applied because the rating is essentially based on the premise of finding the average speed of each entrant at a similar condition that they're facing today. If a horse has never run on the surface or has never run with 2 furlongs of today's distance it's basically impossible to say how they'll do. If a horse achieves a rating of 100.00 or more it is the KSR's suggestion that they are fast enough to win this particular race.
In 13 race days at Saratoga 69 races had the KSR applied to them and 47 times the winner had a rating of 100.00 or more. 11 times the winner was unrated and another 11 times the winner had a rating of 99.99 or less. A flat bet on every horse in those 69 races that had a rating of 100.00 or more would have made you $85.60. It's not the most unbelievable profit margin ever but it does show a profitable correlation.
The KSR is still pretty new so it might need some revision but I've decided to link today's figures here on the blog and we can follow the results as they happen. Hopefully these ratings can help put you and I onto a few winners today.
Spot Plays for Aug 19th
Race #1
$1 exacta box - Miss Fleetfoot/Dressmaker/Sneaky Girl =$6
Race #3
$1 exacta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$12
$1 trifecta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$24
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Starfish Bay/Thoroughly Holy/Gemswick Park =$6
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Akonite/First to Come Home/Galluscio Entry =$6
Race #9
$1 exacta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$12
$1 trifecta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$24
Wagered - $90
Meet Balance = -$487.00 (-54.72%)
You may notice that most of the horses I'm using today are well rated by the KSR. There were a lot of playable races today based on those figures. In fact there were likely more races today than any other that I've calculated so I'm going a bit heavy in relation to my stated average of $50 per day.
In Race #5 I'm taking a bit of a risk in that I'm leaving out a lot of really good horses but I just like the race because you have a good looking Pletcher, a good looking Rice and Gemswick Park, a horse that I've always thought very well of. So hot trainers combined with a classy sprinter, it seems like a good deal to me.
The other plays are mostly based off the figures. I'm looking for overall speed to dominate the races and hopefully cash me some tickets.
I think Pletcher will really come to hand in the second half of this meet and he's starting to put in some serious horses. Look for him to win 5 or more races this week.
Starting Monday Aug 3rd I made calculations for every race possible. Not every race can have KSR's applied because the rating is essentially based on the premise of finding the average speed of each entrant at a similar condition that they're facing today. If a horse has never run on the surface or has never run with 2 furlongs of today's distance it's basically impossible to say how they'll do. If a horse achieves a rating of 100.00 or more it is the KSR's suggestion that they are fast enough to win this particular race.
In 13 race days at Saratoga 69 races had the KSR applied to them and 47 times the winner had a rating of 100.00 or more. 11 times the winner was unrated and another 11 times the winner had a rating of 99.99 or less. A flat bet on every horse in those 69 races that had a rating of 100.00 or more would have made you $85.60. It's not the most unbelievable profit margin ever but it does show a profitable correlation.
The KSR is still pretty new so it might need some revision but I've decided to link today's figures here on the blog and we can follow the results as they happen. Hopefully these ratings can help put you and I onto a few winners today.
Spot Plays for Aug 19th
Race #1
$1 exacta box - Miss Fleetfoot/Dressmaker/Sneaky Girl =$6
Race #3
$1 exacta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$12
$1 trifecta box - Rodman/Penna Entry/Banking Holiday/Levine Entry =$24
Race #5
$1 exacta box - Starfish Bay/Thoroughly Holy/Gemswick Park =$6
Race #8
$1 exacta box - Akonite/First to Come Home/Galluscio Entry =$6
Race #9
$1 exacta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$12
$1 trifecta box - Dashing Debby/Sassy Image/Camille's Appeal/Babai Baby =$24
Wagered - $90
Meet Balance = -$487.00 (-54.72%)
You may notice that most of the horses I'm using today are well rated by the KSR. There were a lot of playable races today based on those figures. In fact there were likely more races today than any other that I've calculated so I'm going a bit heavy in relation to my stated average of $50 per day.
In Race #5 I'm taking a bit of a risk in that I'm leaving out a lot of really good horses but I just like the race because you have a good looking Pletcher, a good looking Rice and Gemswick Park, a horse that I've always thought very well of. So hot trainers combined with a classy sprinter, it seems like a good deal to me.
The other plays are mostly based off the figures. I'm looking for overall speed to dominate the races and hopefully cash me some tickets.
I think Pletcher will really come to hand in the second half of this meet and he's starting to put in some serious horses. Look for him to win 5 or more races this week.
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