Friday, September 04, 2009

Saratoga Diary - Sept 4th

I'm finally back home and back in the groove. Although I love vacations and the chance to get to the track in person I do find comfort in being at my home base. This is my first post in almost two weeks. It's almost the longest I've ever gone without posting.

While in Toronto I was able to get out to Woodbine to catch Jungle Wave's excellent performance in the Play the King while also watching Travers Day via simulcast. I certainly hope that Jungle Wave's connections have the courage to venture south of the border. He's really in a zone right now and will likely lead the home team along with Rahy's Attorney in the Woodbine Mile.

Getting back to Saratoga, for those of you who may have forgotten I am getting sliced and diced this meet. My spot plays have yielded a -52.66% loss and I've had just 71 winners on top for a -16.41% loss in the public handicapping exercise. The silver lining is that the last two weeks of the meet have actually been positive for me. I'd need the most monstrous final week ever to show a profit for the meet but at least I'm gaining a bit of a foothold.

Saratoga has also been a time when I've been able to test and perfect my new Kennedy Speed Rating. It's not a guarantee of victory but in general the winners wind up being rated fast enough. Just as a little reminder the KSR is simply an average of each horses Beyer's, BRIS Speed and DRF Track Ratings. A rating of 100 or more means that a horse is faster on average at today's conditions than the field average which in my mind makes them a real contender to win.

Here are the KSR ratings for today. Many of the races are wide open with 5 or more contenders. It'll be a tough card but if you're right you should be well rewarded.

Spot Plays for Sept 4th

Race #3
$1 exacta box - Mississippi Hippie/Dogwood Entry/Paddy O'Prado =$6

Race #4
$1 exacta box - Positive Pitch/By M K/Australis Princess =$6

Race #5
$1 exacta box - Biggerbadderbetter/Valtrus/Tiger Woodman =$6

Race #6
$1 exacta box - Weaver Entry/Poppy Day/Adriatic Magic =$6

Race #7
$1 exacta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$12
$1 trifecta box - My Baby Baby/Final Refrain/Belle Allure/Colina Verde =$24

Wagered - $60
Meet Balance = -$623.50 (-52.66%)

I do see some chances to get some prices in several events today. It may be a tough day to get winners on top but some nice exacta's might be on the cards.

My longshot play of the day is Biggerbadderbetter. He is actually rated too slow by the KSR but I still like him to pull off an upset at a big price. The mile should suit him very well. I actually thought that he was a bit unlucky against Tahoe Warrior last time. His second race off the layoff ought to be better.

I'm hoping for a big day for Ken McPeek as I'm using My Baby Baby as a key in the feature as well. Belle Allure will be really tough and I'm not sure that I like the negative form reference from Cocoa Beach but My Baby Baby should win this race if she runs back to that form.

Good luck to everyone today!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

check out the Spinaway 9/6,and give
your opinion on Opus a .