Friday, September 11, 2009

Weekend Picks And Analysis

Endine Stakes
Keep the Peace is the obvious choice because of the class drop down. Any filly sprint looks easier without Game Face, or any Graded Stakes winner for that matter but the reason I like this race is that Keep the Peace has not been a winner in her career. She has dropped to classes lower than this in the past and she generally finds ways to get beaten. In her last 9 dirt sprints she has hit the board every time but has managed just one measly allowance win. I'm hoping the second best mentality stays with her here. I'm looking to play against her with the top two KSR rated horses. Sunday Geisha has the speed to pull this off if she can get back to the form she showed at Philly park in the spring. The worrying thing for me is that it seems like her only good races have been at Philly Park. Fearless Leader may be the second rated horse but she's the best qualified to pull off the upset. She's got a great record at Delaware and solid credentials at the distance. She can stalk the pace of Keep the Peace, Bold Union and Sunday Geisha and hopefully have a leg up tactically on that group. She just got run down in her last but she did that while coming off a layoff. She has been much sharper in the mornings lately and she looks like a prime play.

Fearless Leader

Presque Ilse Downs Masters Stakes
You're not going to find a better field of female sprinters outside the Breeders' Cup. This race looks every bit as tough as the Ballerina. A lot of trainers like Presque Ilse because they say horses come out the races there fitter. Handicappers have caught on as well and many last time Presque Ilse horses are getting bet. This is a good spot to prep for the BC Filly and Mare Sprint because you'll know very quickly if you belong. Informed Decision has never lost a race on synthetic and she is the deserving favorite. I don't view her as beatable from the standpoint that she'll run worse than expected. I think the only way she loses this race is if one of her rivals proves to be an utterly brilliant horse. Game Face I do not wholly trust. I'd like her a lot more on the dirt but her speedy style does not visually appear to be a good mesh with the surface. Diamondrella is really the reason I wanted to take a close look at this race. She is unbelievable in one turn turf races. Ventura successfully made the transition to synthetics and I'm hoping that Diamondrella does too. I think she has a slight advantage over Informed Decision because I think she closes harder than the Sheppard horse and I think less than 7f is better for her than the favorite. A bomb worth using underneath is Sweet Lorena. She loves the track and has been earning solid figures over it as well. I think she's the horse that Diamondrella and Informed Decision have to be worried about because she has a tactical speed advantage. It should be a very interesting contest.


Garden City Stakes
There are few horses that I have more faith in than Gozzip Girl. Maram should be a good test but if Gozzip Girl is as good as I think she is then there is no point in trying to get interesting. Gozzip Girl should win this race and continue her roll to the Breeders' Cup and a meeting with Forever Together. I think the rest are looking at second.

Gozzip Girl

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