Monday, October 30, 2006

BC Juvenile Fillies

I don’t think anyone really knows what to do with this race. Untouched Talent looked decent but she’s out. That logically makes this race a match between Dreaming of Anna and Cash Included. Most people will eventually settle on one of the two but I do believe that this race could go to anyone. The odds of the major prep winners were 12/1, 47/1, 13/1, and 12/1. To now believe that this race comes down to match between a pair of 5/2 shots is I think a little foolish. The problem with this race is that no alternative really looks good. I am personally willing to oppose Cash Included. She has a shot but I think she’ll regress a bit off her last. Dreaming of Anna has that freakish quality that makes you nervous about opposing her. Her dirt form is nothing to speak of and she isn’t really bred for the dirt. She is also a speed horse and while speed help up well at CD this past weekend I wonder if she wont be compromised by the pace. Just because the race looks so confusing I will likely use her as my main play but work to structure exotics with plenty of longshots. The three longshots I prefer in this race are Adrhythm, Octave and Quick Little Miss. Adrhythm may just be the latest Calder flash, I fully accept that evaluation of her talents. However if a horse like that was ever going to have a good shot it would be in this type of field. Her Beyer figs are pretty low but consider this. Take the average figs achieved by each horse in their last two races and Adrhythm actually ranks 4th behind the two favorites and Quick Little Miss. So while she may not be very fast, she may well be fast enough. Another thing to like about her is her good turn of foot. She accelerated beautifully in her first try around two turns and she persevered through the lane. It was a visually impressive race and I don’t blame her connections for taking a stab at this one. If Dreaming of Anna fails because of the pace she is one horse I really like to take advantage. Octave is simply a solid little horse who tries. She isn’t brilliant by any means but she is maybe the safest show bet candidate in the race where nothing appears safe. She has been working like a tiger lately and while I don’t think she can win she is definitely good enough to be top 3. In a race packed with pace it only makes sense to find the best closer and to me that definitely is Quick Little Miss. The race where she broke her maiden was hugely impressive and her follow up in G-1 company was sneaky good. She was always going to be up against it closing in California. I think Churchill will suit her better and she should be flying at the finish.

1) Dreaming of Anna
2) Octave
3) Quick Little Miss

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately most of my capping will be done late Friday afternoon, however:
I took a quick look at the pps for this race this morning (first chance I've had and it was a very brief glance). This is not a very inspiring renewal of this race for me anyway...Dreaming of Anna and Cash Included are far and away the fastest in the field, and will be heavily bet. At least one of them should win or hit the board, if not both. Most of the fillies in here are not fast enough, and many of them don't even look like they'll move forward on Saturday. Additionally, those coming off the Polytrack at Kee may be difficult reads due to the nature of that surface. Of the rest, Octave may have the best chance to move forward- she's been consistent, if not spectacular (who has in here?), and if the top two falter in the stretch, she'll be there to pick em up. The only really interesting longshot prospect I see here (and bear in mind that I only barely glanced at the pps) is the Biancone-trained Her Majesty. She's only raced on the synth surface, so is a bit of an unknown, but Giants Causeways seem to be able to go either way...so she may take to the dirt. She's also getting both Lasix and blinks for the first time. Biancone can be dangerous with those 2yos, so I'll take a long look at her.

Preliminary selections:

Dreaming of Anna
Cash Included
Octave
Her Majesty