BC Juvenile

I am quite intrigued by the many different possible outcomes of this race. At first glance it really is hard to figure out who is superior between Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Principle Secret and Scat Daddy. Perhaps the truth is that they’re all pretty even and the winner will just be the one who is best suited to the track and pace on that day. If we consider the track then surely Circular Quay has the edge. He’s looked explosive over it twice and is apparently working well back on conventional dirt as well. I have been high on him all year. He has looked to me an excellent candidate for this race for many months. However I must admit that his last effort shook me a bit. He did appear to struggle with the added distance. The surface switch may have been the real cause though and with the news that he once again looks brilliant on the dirt I am more inclined to forgive him. However I am wary of his chances because of his style. He comes from well back and weaving through traffic might be very difficult. I think I shall use him primarily underneath. Great Hunter appeared to be crying out for two turns and he looked good when finally getting to run it. I think he is a very dangerous horse and could certainly win but you have to take a stand against someone and I’m choosing him. He hasn’t been brilliant and while the California form has looked good, I prefer Circular Quay’s track experience, Scat Daddy’s class and Principle Secret’s brilliance. Scat Daddy is the horse I consider most likely to hit the frame. He is just a solid classy horse. He has always shown up and run a great race. He has faced adversity and he doesn’t mind a little rough stuff either. This horse is bang on mentally and I like him to win any close contest. Principle Secret to me is the most capable horse in the race. I think he’s sitting on a career top and I do believe that at his best he will prove to be too much for the rest of these. Paasch was furious with the ride last time out and there is no way he’ll be sent to the lead in here. Not with Teuflesberg and Pegasus Wind setting the pace. He does his best running from off the pace and a good patient ride should see him produce his best here. Two horses I don’t like at all for this race are Stormello and King of the Roxy. I think Stormello was very fortunate in his last and that he’ll regress this time. I also think that the lack of two turn experience will hurt King of the Roxy. He also isn’t working that well. The only longshot that excites me is Skip Code. There are plenty of things to like about this horse. He is quick, he is able to get himself into and through holes that other horses may not be able to. He is also quite brave. For an inexperienced horse he has made some moves that are shocking. He is one you could be sure will be better able to deal with adversity than most of the others. His low Beyer figs may be a result of of the Polytrack. Frankly I don’t even know how they're making those figs. They're supposed to use pars but since the surface is new where did they get the pars from? I find cause to question the Beyer figs on Polytrack. So don’t throw him out just because he looks too slow on paper. One could certainly do worse. He will be about 40/1 on BC day.

1) Principle Secret
2) Scat Daddy
3) Circular Quay