Don't play favorites at Breeders' Cup?

Quoted below is an excerpt from MSNBC's Bob Neumeier in a recent article he wrote about finding value in the Breeders Cup.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15236017/

"Bernardini, Fleet Indian, Henny Hughes, Wait a While, and George Washington
all wrapped up into a tidy Breeders’ Cup winning package.

It looks just that simple.

But as good as these horses appear to be on paper, they are a losing
proposition. Since the debut of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, 93 horses have gone
to the post (discounting multiple entries) at odds of less than $1.90 on the
dollar ... prohibitive favorites. Thirty-eight of those horses won their
respective races for a 40 percent winning ratio, again far and above the 33
percent national average.If you had placed a $2 dollar bet on all BC
favorites, it would cost you $186 bucks (93 X 2). For your 38 winners,
your return would be $161.20, or about 86 percent of your original
investment.

You’re a L-O-S-E-R. At 40 percent win ratio in Breeders’ Cup Races."

The trouble with this opinion is that he is simply adding the wrong numbers. There is actually value to be found by playing the favorites. There have been 161 favorites go to post in BC history. A flat bet on all of them would cost $322. The total return from those favorites would be $314.80 a loss of just $7.20 or -2.24% with a 36.65% winning percentage.

The aim though is to extract value though right? So how about we toss all odds on favorites and just bet those favorites who are higher than even money. We end up with $246 wagered and $255.20 returned for a $9.20 (3.74%) profit. It really is that simple, and that is just with 34% winners. Normally I wouldn't advocate playing just favorites, but surely the best place you could find to do so is the Breeders Cup. Value lies with having the winner. A 2/1 winning favorite always pays more than a logical 7/1 loser.

While I'm busting myths I might as well mention that the notion of favored Europeans flopping in America is well...a myth. Favorites who are Europeans win at the exact same percentage as American favorites but they actually pay more. I suppose this is due to the natural skepticism by Americans of mostly unknown horses. Anyway betting on European favorites returned a 10.16% profit. Eliminate the odds on choices and you're looking at an easy 16.48%.

It sounds much more virtuous to preach about the pitfalls of betting favorites, but really winning at the Breeders Cup comes down to backing the winner. If he happens to be the public choice dont sweat it, you have a better chance of making money than on any other day of the year.