Weekend picks and analysis

Overview
This is the last chance for basically all the Breeders Cup horses. I would be surprised to see any BC horse run after this weekend. Chief among the contenders runing today is Gorella. Its hard to say exactly what her connections are loking for from this race in terms of deciding where she will be next. But I do think that anything other than a win will see her in the FM turf. Even if she has excuses for losing, if she cant beat this field at a Mile she wont win the BC Mile. The Juvenile races at Belmont will be interesting. I'm sort of hoping that a good filly really distinguishes herself in the Frizette but as I look at the race I think its unlikely. The Champagne on the other hand has tons of good horses who could be legit BC contenders. Across the pond we have the last major G-1 of the season in the Champion Stakes. The Turf may well get a runner or two from that race, with Hurricane Run and Sir Percy looking like the most likely to try the double.

Selections

Perryville - Mach Ride
Meadowlands BC - Reverberate
Frizette - True Addiction
Jamaica BC - Showing Up
Champagne - Big Timer
TB Club America - Malibu Mint
First Lady - Gorella
QE II Challenge Cup - Take The Ribbon
Champion S - Hurricane Run
Dewhurst - Teofilio

Analysis

Frizette
I'm feeling a bit frisky with these fillies, basically because none of them are any good and literally any horse could win this. I'm not even sure how the betting will look. Awesome Ashley will likely be the favourite but she is nothing to be scared of. On the contrary I think she is there to be opposed. There is on paper an apparent glut of speed. However that can be a bit decieving but a good number of maidens are won on the front end, however its not always indicative of the horses true running style. Sometimes the rider forces them to go to the front and sometimes they are just much better than the horses they are facing and they can hardly help getting to the front. So it might be worth a gamble to take a speed horse despite what you see in the PP's. The speed horse that I like is Lilly Carson. She won her maiden at Saratoga very well and although she is no sure thing to get the distance I love seeing the longer works on the Polytrack. Its a more demanding surface and obviously Nicks feels she can go the mile. But just to balance that selection I'll go with a closer just in case the pace collapses. True Addiction goes here for the savvy Breen barn. Her figs are terrible but her class matches up with Octave and I have always suspected that the Adirondack figure is low. On form she isnt far behind Meadow Breeze which essentially puts her on par with the rest of the field. Watch for her to come late.
1) Lilly Carson 2) True Addiction 3) Allude

Champagne
This is a very interesting and well matched contest. It probably the strongest assimalation of talent we've seen this year in this division. Liquidity and Nobiz Like Showbiz are pretty good and they'll take some money. I dont really like Liquidity because of the pace factor and I'm going to take a gamble against Nobiz. I'm going to stick with the more experienced horses as I believe there will be better value with them. The three I'm going to focus on are Scat Daddy, Big Timer and Got The Last Laugh. Scat daddy is the class of the field. He is a solid colt and he has already shown that he can deal with adversity. However I dont see him as brilliant enough to deal with some others who might step it up. Big Timer is one of those. He has been untouchable in Europe and he has also displayed some courage by going through narrow gaps. He has also performed well on 3 different types of going, plus being bred for the dirt he is likely to adapt well to it. It would not surprise me to see him beat this field easily, however I suppose he could just as easily react to the kickback and finish nowhere. I think 4/1 or more would be nice for him. The horse who I think is getting overlooked the most is Got The Last Laugh. Mott is not reknowed for being adept with 2yo's, he is also not known to be aggressive with them. This guy broke his maiden at first asking which is a rarity for that barn. Then he went toe to toe with a seasoned stakes performer and dead heated. This horse is a runner with confirmed toughness. If Big Timer gets slammed down on the board he will become my primary.
1) Big Timer 2) Got The Last Laugh 3) Scat Daddy

First Lady
I would love to beat Gorella in here. For all her brilliance in America she has only won 50% of her starts and traffic is always a concern with her. However all the speed in here I really cant make a case for anyone else. Mea Domina is a fave of mine but she likes an easy lead. She is a bit like Sweet Return in that regard. Sweet talker will get the perfect setup but I just dont think she is good enough to hold off Gorella. I'm looking for the same members of the trifecta of last year's QE II. Just with the order rearranged.
1) Gorella 2) Sweet Talker 3) Karens Caper

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
This is a mouthwatering clash. I especially dislike Mauralakana, I generally make a habit of opposing Euro's who are second off the plane. Regressions are commonplace. I think this comes down to Germance, Magnificent Song and Take The Ribbon. Germance might be simply too good for these girls but there are tons of questions. The ground may not be suited to her and the distance may be a tad short for her. Magnificent Song is just a consistent horse who is going to be close at the finish, but she can be beaten. Especially in a full field. I'm also wary of her significant jump in Beyers last out. She was getting fairly consistent numbers until then and I wonder if she wont back out of it. I find myself settling on Take The Ribbon again. I used her against Magnificent Song last time and I think I will do so again. She has real talent, she has just had the misfortune of losing to a pair of fillies who ran thier lifetime bests against her. She should get first run and hopefully this time she wont get caught.
1) Take the Ribbon 2) Magnificent Song 3) Germance