Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Hollywood Turf Festival

Citation Handicap
Tough race to figure out. There are so many different ways you could go but I'm choosing to go against the Drysdale duo and the main speed. Rob Roy will get a lot of action, and deservedly so. He's a good horse who could win this. But he missed the start in his last and if there is a trainer who could be described as the worst gate trainer in the nation it would de Drysdale. I think he gets off slowly and has a hard time getting thorugh this field. Becrux is a sloid contender but I've never thought of him as really fast. He is a solid horse who I dont think will be able to beat a collection of talent like this. He is also less proficient beyond a mile going 5-1-0-2 in his career. Whilly and Sweet Return are very difficult horses to pass if they get things thier own way. But with both of them here they wont so both are tosses. Ashkal Way looks like the horse to beat to me. He has been super consistent and this distance really suits him better than a flat mile. But then again the competition he has been facing has all fallen flat and we dont know how he'll like California. He's worth using but also worth going against. Silent Name is one horse I'd liek to use against him. I think he is the most talented horse in the race. However how he's going to run is a complete mystery. He is best when he sits close to the pace and uses his turn of foot. However he hasnt done that since April. He has had a series of curious rides and bad luck, but the good thing is that he has still been running rather well. He wasnt well beaten in the BC Mile and if he were behind horses He'd have a great shot. He is a risk though because he could easily go straight to the front and burn out. Its been a long time since he's passed a horse in the stretch. Stormin Away is a very interesting longshot. He loves Hollywood, he comes in fresh, he's been working well and this distance is a perfect fit for him. He clearly prefers Turf so his last two races can be thrown out. On the grass he actually gave Becrux a great run for his money, but that race was at a flat mile and Stormin Away was coming from way back. He was a littel closer next out and he destroyed a decent field. He is short of the best here on talent. I dont think he has ever run a race good enough to beat this crowd at their best. But ifhe runs a new career top (which he very well could) and a few of the others dont run so well he could light up the board. Another horse to consider is Cosmonaut. He has been running very well without getting any good results. Include him in your exacta's, I doubt Biancone sent him for nothing.

1) Ashkal Way
2) Stormin Away
3) Silent Name

Matriach
Boy it seems like every mare with early pace was entered in this one. I think tactics will play a bit part in this one because connections can certainly see that it would be a traffic jam if they all went. I think the speed of the speed is Attima. I thin she has the most to lose from taking back because her post pretty much dictates where she'll be. I think the classiest speed is Pommes Frites but I generally dislike Eastern horses coming West. I dont think she's been on a course like this so I'll be wary of her. Cambiocorsa will press the pace if she decides to run but I catn see her staying out a mile in this company. To me the races look like it'll be settled between Price Tag, Danzon and Memorette. Price Tag is the next installment of Juddmonte's high class conveyor system. She is classic winner in France so she's got talent. She also has been very inconsistent. Frankel runs her here on Lasix and get Prado to ride. She might have a slight preference for soft ground but Frankel had her go over the course just a few days ago and all seemed well. Danzon makes her first start in America for the dangerous Biancone barn. Her form in Europe was more consistent than Price Tag's but not as brilliant at her best. She has really done all her good running over soft ground so I dont really think she's worth taking on top. Memorette is a forgotten horse who loves the course and is not too shabby at the distance. She could very easily spring a shock here. She might get the pace she needs and I think she'll do well fresh.

1) Price Tag
2) Memorette
3) Danzon

No comments: