Crafty Placement

Fall Highweight Handicap
Sprints are supposed to be all about speed, and this race looks like the consumate sprint. We know Afrashad is going straight to the front, he really cant run any other way. Unfortunately for him Dutrow doesnt plan to run Kazoo any other way either. Dutrow said it best in the DRF this morning: "I can't see Kazoo and Afrashad running a big race because they're going to kill each other." I really see it the same way, Afrashad is one dimensional and Dutrow has Kazoo in as a rabbit. That makes Sir Greeley extremely dangerous, but I think the Jerkens trainee is more dangerous to his backers. Everything looks set for him. The pace, the track, his fitness.....however this is a horse who has routinely lost when he should have won. Its something that gets in the head of horses I think. I wouldnt be shocked if he won this race, however neither will any of the bettors who will make him favorite. I'm going to go for a streaking horse instead. Crafty Cammack is rising through the ranks very quickly and although this is a huge class jump, the sprint division is the easiest one to step up in. He gets 11 lbs from Sir Greeley and has more tactical speed, meaning he should get first run on the favorite. Lately he has been a very tough horse to reel in once he gets in front. He comes in fresh and working well. The only concern is that he doesnt get involved in the suicidal pace scenario. If he can steer clear of that he'll be in the cat bird seat. I think he's as fast as anyone in this race and the horss he has been beating lately are all coming back to run very well. Including Morine's Victory, who Spooky Mulder recently denied in a blockbuster finish.

1) Crafty Cammack
2) Sir Greeley
3) Mr Whitestone

Cigar Mile
Not much to say about this race. Its a pretty short field for a G-1 but there is still a good amount of quality. its just that the chaff isnt here so there are almost no exotic combinations. The way I see it, Discreet Cat will get a class test from the talented Badge of Silver. I see him passing that test after being made to work for it a bit. Badge of Silver has been one of America's most talented horses for years now but he's really struggled with injuries. He'll give the Godolphin superstar a run for his money but Discreet Cat has already dealt with some adversity in the UAE Derby and I think he'll prove the best here again.

1) Discreet Cat
2) Badge of Silver
3) Silver Train

DeFrancis Dash
Many interesting angles to consider in this one. The BC boys, Thor's Echo, Attila's Storm and Nightmare Affair will likely dominate the betting. However this race has in the past been dominated by horses who did not run in the BC. In fact over the past few years the DeFrancis Dash has been won by horses who had not even won a Graded Stakes yet. Another angle to consider is that horses who ran in the BC were often sharpened for it, they may be more dull afterwards. I expect Thor's Echo to be bet rather generously and I think that while he could run well he offers poor value to do so. BC Sprint winners in recent history have done decently in thier next start winning 50% and running ITM in 83%. But overall BC winners returning win at just 31%, about what you'd expect a favorite to do. A general guideline that I'd use is to not assume that the BC changed anything. Before Nov 4th Thor's Echo was a fast and talented horse who had won just 3 of 16 starts and none for a long while. I'm not going to assume that the BC made him into a winning machine. I expect that he'll resume his normal pattern. Running well without winning. So the question has to be, who can beat him? He's got the fastest figs by far and with a decent amount of speed in here he looks to get a good setup. I dont really like Nightmare Affair. He could win this race but he's always sort of up against it because he relies on the pace. He also has a strong preference for Calder and Tampa. He is 12-8-3-1 when sprinting over the Calder strip. He is also 3-2-0-0 at Tampa. However sprinting away from those tracks he is 9-0-4-1. That isnt a bad record, but it also isnt the kind of record that will see me take 3/1 on him. Celtic Innis seems to have a hard time running well at Laurel so I wont use him either. I am most interested in Attila's Storm, Diabolical and Joey Carson as alternatives. Attila's Storm is the speed of the speed and as such he merits a lot of consideration even in a race where it looks like there is a lot of other speed. He is the one they'll have to catch and he is not an easy horse to pass. Diabolical is a scary horse, he'll be a great price and he has the look of a horse who is going to be a serious sprinter next year. He has a spotty record but he has always run well in sprints and he is very live here. Last out he manhandled Fabulous Strike who is perhaps one of the speediest gate horses in the world. I really dont know what to do with him. He could smash this field or run last. He's worth including on your tickets but I think maybe his fig for the last had something to do with the wet track, which he loves. Joey Carson is the type of horse who will either step up to this class jump and make a name for himself or get demolished and go back to the Delaware allowance circuit. He is virtually flawless, he loves the distance and on his best day I really do think he can run with them. I think he could be sitting on a big one but I'm going to stick with Attila's Storm as my official selection.

1) Attila's Storm
2) Joey Carson
3) Thor's Echo