BC Classic

This is the most anticipated race of the day for many but for me it appears to be a foregone conclusion. Don’t get me wrong I won't be that shocked if Bernardini loses. Many horses lose when heavily backed to succeed. And especially the ones who appeared to do everything so easily beforehand. But I don’t think there will be much value in chasing an upset. I will instead just look to find some small exacta’s. One thing that has impressed me this year is the strength of the 3yo crop and it is with that bias that I will base my Classic predictions. I am playing against the older generation. Lava Man is an unproven traveler, at the end of a long year and his figs haven't been all that great. Invasor has the long layoff he’ll be short priced and he did struggle on a surface similar to this one in Dubai. There were other rumors floating around his performance there but its enough evidence for me to look elsewhere for value. Sun King is 0 for 5 at this distance and 0 for 11 in this company. Perfect Drift just cannot seem to win and his form this year looks like his worst ever, pre-Classic. Premuim Tap is a sucker horse and Giacomo is very slow. Basically I think the 3yo’s Bernardini, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron will decide this one. Brother Derek will be the target. Breaking from the inside he has no choice but to be on the lead and that will compromise him. However what I love about this horse is his class. He doesn’t quit. Even when things don’t go his way he stays in there. So while I don’t see him winning I do believe he can hang on for a spot. Lawyer Ron is a wild card. He has the talent to run in the top 3. He loves dirt and if he could just find a way to be less headstrong he should be very tough. P Val is on board and everyone predicts that he’ll be sent. But P Val has ridden stalkers before, he isn’t one dimensional. I basically see all three of these horses being forwardly placed and in the lane Bernardini should just devour them. Hopefully Javier really opens him up and we’ll get to see what he’s got.

1) Bernardini
2) Lawyer Ron
3) Brother Derek