La Prevoyante
The media is billing this as a match race between Safari Queen and Royal Highness because they were a close 1-2 in the Long Island. This time Royal Highness comes with a pacemaker. Safari Queen hasnt run 2 good races in a row in North America and I think it would be foolish to think she'll start here when she will be at 2/1. Royal Highness to me is one of those always coming never getting there types. She'll be close but dont be surprised if she burns some more money with a belated late run. I really like Barancella in here. I think she comes out of the strongest last race and is in the form of her life. I like her to get in front before the Clement trainee but Castellano will be wary about going too soon which he arguably did at Woodbine. She stays the distance although it is not readily apparent in her form. I think she might be the best bet of the weekend.
1) Barancella
2) Royal Highness
3) Wait It Out
Hollywood Futurity
I'm really torn in this spot between taking the obvious horse or taking the interesting alternative or even going for an absolute bomb. Obviously Belgravia stands above this field. Visually he was extremely impressive in his debut but he got a low figure. Next out he got a high figure but didnt look nearly as good. He was wandering a bit late and looked to lose focus. However he still got the job done and I think the concerns over his ability to get two turns are overstated. However he isnt the only one who can win this. All weather tracks have been kind to longshots, especially longshots coming from the turf. Whatsthescript has looked every inch a budding top class grass miler. He isnt overly big, but he can shut off and he can accelerate very well. His last two races have been excellent but because of the way he runs I dont think he's going to be destroying fields by large margins. He displays his dominance through the ease of his acceleration. He is a very dangerous horse here if he likes the ground and he might be the best value. I'm oddly intrigued by outside maiden Senior. I always like to ask myself why connections have placed horses in certain spots. This guy has never run on the surface, never run this far and he has never even finished in the money. But here he is. From what I saw of him he is a pretty big horse who moves well when he feels like it. He was all stop and start in his debut. I think he could forward a great deal in this race. But he is perhaps too much of a bomb to make my primary selection. Notional could move forward as well. He was well beaten in his last and it was a good try first against stakes horses. I'd use him in the exotics.
1) Whatsthescript
2) Belgravia
3) Senior
Hollywood Starlet
In this race I am going to take a shot. I was very impressed with Down's maiden race. I've been tracking her waiting to play her next out ever since. The fact that this is a G-1 has made me rethink how much I like her but I dont see many horses who are really to be feared. There isnt a G-1 horse in this race. She has been working very well and Frankel is confident. Confident enough that he scratched her out of a maiden last week. That along with my impression of her is enough for me to put the money down. I respect Mystic Soul very much as I know she stays and she looks quite talented. I think Runway Rosie may be overlooked a bit as well. She is perhaps the most proven all weather runner in the field. She was quite good in her tuneup for this one. She came into a slow pace and the margin was closer because she pulled herself up after hitting the front. She gets Gomez and is a huge threat.
1) Down
2) Runway Rosie
3) Mystic Soul
Friday, December 15, 2006
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Love the blog Kennedy. I found it through the link on DRF - that's some pretty good advertising huh!
Anyway, I wanted to comment on the Futurity. I love Stormello - and there's no questioning his heart, but is he reminding anyone else of Lawyer Ron (with a better jockey). As for the others, what a disappointment! Notional and Belgravia brought nothing on the stretch, and Principle Secret had a perfect set up and couldn't fire. May is definately a ways off, but I didn't see anyone that got me motivated to place a derby futures bet in this race.
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