Swan Song in Hong Kong

Overview: As usual the Hong Kong international meet is absolutely sparkling. Along with the Dubai World Cup meet this is the day that truely deserves a World Championship billing because the world actually shows up to this. There are horses from every continent and really only America is poorly represented. Takeover Target aims to get an extra million for winning the Global Sprint challenge but he may not run because of a drugs test. Vengence of Rain is back to defend his title after being injured. And best of all the wonderful racemares Ouija Board and Pride get their final career starts. What a mare Ouija Board's been. 10 wins from 21 starts. 7 G-1 wins in 4 countries, a dual classic winner and 2 time Breeders Cup winner. She's also racked up a pair of G-1 wins against males. I'll be sad to see her go. Pride also finishes her career and while her record isnt as sparkling she is certainly a top class mare and racing will be poorer for her absence.

Hong Kong Sprint
Nobody knows quite what to do with this race if Takeover Target fails to run. He looked set to layover this field but in all likelihood he will have to withdraw because the drugs havent cleared his system as of today. If he runs I'd have to make him my first selection however since he is unlikely I'm looking for other options. As usual I'll tend to steer clear of the Europena sprinters. Many of them of not of the highest class and I think Desert Lord will be well overbet. Able Prince is a solid local horse who may get overlooked. He's got decent early speed and he should be right on the pace. The distance may stretch him a bit but I think he's in top form and he should run them close if not steal it. She Is Tosho is another horse I'd take a long look at. The Japanese usually send a very strong contingent and they do well in these races. She is at the mercy of the pace in some respect but she'll love the fact that this is now a 6f race. She will be trucking at the end. But I feel that Sha Tin favors horses who get first run and Able Prince should get it. I'll give an outside chance to old champ Silent Witness. I dont think he has the legs to run with this crowd anymore but I'd love to see him gut out a top 3 finish.

1) Able Prince
2) She Is Tosho
3) Silent Witness

Hong Kong Vase
This race is really about Ouija Board. The Europeans have the best stayers and they should dominate this race. The real question is just can Ouija Board get a clear run and is she over the top from all her travels. I tend to think she can get clear and that she isnt over the top. I think it'll be the perfect sendoff for this fabulous mare. However there is one horse who I jsut cant seem to shake. I have always had a soft spot for Maraahel because I think he's got talent he just hasnt showed yet. He has looked awesome in the pre-race gallops and on class he isnt far behind. We already know he likes Sha Tin as he outperformed expectations last year in the Cup. He is the main danger and he may even be worth a flyer in case something happens to Ouija. I like the pacy Scorpion to run well too. He is quicker than his main rivals and that wil serve him well. He should be forwardly placed and for the first time in a long time he should be in good physical shape.

1) Ouija Board
2) Maraahel
3) Scorpion

Hong Kong Mile
This may be one of the best contests of the card. Armada is Hong Kong's newest thing and he will extremely tough to beat if he produces his best form. He is 7 for 8 lifetime but he has never faced this quality. He likes to run late and I think the horse that beats him may wind up being the winner. I do think though that because of his lack of a class test that he could be found out. He isnt as dominant as previous sure things from Hong Kong like Vengence of Rain and Silent Witness. The filly I like to take him out is Dance In The Mood. She is world class and although she is winless in her last 3 I think there is every reason to back her. First off she has been facing Daiwa Major who is the best miler in the world and is making a decent case that he's among the best horses period. She loves the distance, she likely stands above all these class wise aside from Bullish Luck who is past his best. And she is quick, that is the thing I love the most about her. They'll all have to catch her as they turn for home because she should be sitting right in the pocket. Hopefully she'll have enough to hold off Armada. I'll also give a shout to Mustameet, he is one of the most improved horses in ireland this year and although I think he is short class wise he could run a very big race.

1) Dance In The Mood
2) Armada
3) Mustameet

Hong Kong Cup
The Hong Kong Cup is supposed to be a match between defending local champ Vengence of Rain and hot racemare Pride. These two hooked up last year and Vengence just held her off but since then he's been injured and hasnt run well in any of his comebacks. Pride on the other hand has gone from strength to strength and as we speak many consider her a decent match for Ouija Board. Her last two races have been spectacular but my concern is always with French horses who come into a hot weather climate. She isnt a dazzling horse and never has been so its hard to get a line on her from the mornings. She is the horse to beat. I'm not convinced of her invincibility however I'm having a hard time coming up with an alternative I can really get behind. Vengence of Rain is still undefeated at the distance and his connections claim despite his recent poor results that he is in better form than he was last year. It would certainly be a popular victory if he pulled it off but I'm not going to take him on top. An outsider I give a chance to is Growl the Australian. He is well below these on form and he has never been right handed but he is a very progressive sort who could be getting good at the right time. He has the speed to be forwardly placed and he could be in front a furlong from home. I think he has looked spectacular in the mornings at Sha Tin and to me he is worth an including. Admire Moon is a scary horse as he has all the tools to win this race. I'm not taking him however just because you cant take everyone and I feel that he will disadvantaged by the lack of pace.

1) Pride
2) Growl
3) Vengence of Rain