Derby Top 10 (Jan 29th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Circular Quay (5)
5. Scat Daddy (6)
6. Pirates Deputy (7)
7. Notional (8)
8. Birdbirdistheword (9)
9. Hard Spun (9)
10. Ravel (new)
The biggest change in this top 10 is that Street Sense has been dropped from the list. This is the second major defection in a row after Tiz Wonderful was removed the week prior. Street Sense is fine physically but I have severe doubts about his suitability for Derby success after hearing the plans for his prep races. My concerns are outlined in more detail here but suffice it to say I think Street Sense, despite the confidence of his trainer, will not perform well in the Derby. So I dont see any point in keeping him on my top 10 list. Ravel gets upgraded to 10th by default. His stakes debut is this weekend in the Sham and he has all to prove. I added Major Pleasure to my on the radar list. He has looked fantastic in his two starts. He hasnt tried two turns yet but he moves like he wants extra ground and he is remarkably professional for a young horse. Pegasus Wind has been dropped from my radar because of his terrible comback effort at oaklawn. I know Lukas never gives up on a horse and we will still likely see him in some stakes races but he looked bad. Adore the Gold is a bit of a longshot who definitely needs to prove that he can run with graded stakes company but he has looked so good against lesser horses. The preps start in earnest this coming weekend. We'll have Nobiz vs Scat Daddy, Ravel vs Liquidity and many more. Stay tuned!
On the radar: Street Sense (4), Belgravia, Major Pleasure, Exhale, Day Pass, Minefield, Tenfold, Came To Pass, Adore the Gold, Dilemma
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
2 comments:
i have not seen many of your derby top ten in action yet, including those making up the "on the radar' list, save for the ones involved in the BC // i am in an area otb's (lucky magee's) 'road to the derby' handicapping contest which tracks 36 three year old races beginning with yesterday's california derby thru the derby trial so i will be able to see how these horses and your list evolves over the next 16 weeks/ also, it will be interesting to see where the odds fall on these horses after the first future's betting takes place beginning this week// //other// too bad about barbaro/ the main thing is i hope he wasn't under too much stress due to the extra ordinary measures that were taken to save him/ i hope there was new medical information that came out of all he went thru that justify's the attempt to save him and/or some human being, young or old, was able to take heart in there own illnesses because of the barbaro saga taking inspiration from it// chicago gerry
Interesting adjustment to your top 10 Kennedy. For the most part, I agree with your thoughts on Street Sense, however these newly turned 3yos can be tricky. It would not surprise me to see him beaten in his first three starts this year (including the KD), but you never know. My biggest concern with Street Sense is not the lack of preps, but the fact that he flat-out may not be good enough anyway. He had five starts as a 2yo and, though he placed in two stakes, all his runs prior to the BC were less than outstanding. I need to see a start from him this year before passing further judgement on him. If I had a top 10 list he might be #5 out of respect for that BC run, but no higher...
And I agree on Any Given Saturday. I'd rank Nobiz higher than him, but only because Nobiz won a stakes as a 2yo. Saturday looks to have a world of potential, and I'm eager for his 3yo debut. The other horse who looks to have a great foundation is Great Hunter. February should be an exciting prep month!
Post a Comment