Derby Top 10 (Feb 26th)
1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Nobiz Like Showbiz (2)
3. Great Hunter (3)
4. Ravel (4)
5. Liquidity (5)
6. Notional (6)
7. Scat Daddy (7)
8. Birdbirdistheword (8)
9. Law Breaker (9)
10. Adore The Gold (10)
Very little to report this week. The biggest news is that some horses have been dropped from the radar. Exhale who was highly touted by nearly everyone is off the trail. He was always facing an uphill battle to get himself there and know he's picked up an injury. Exhale never featured in my top 10 despite his brilliant maiden win. Belgravia has also been dropped because of the news that he is battling illness. I wondered if he was good enough to begin with. Now it looks as though we may not see him at all this spring. Street Sense's connections also reported that he is no longer set for the Hutcheson. His targets are now the Tampa Bay Derby where he would meet Any Given Saturday or the Rushaway. This is a partial positive because now it means that Street Sense will have two prep races around two turns. Which I think is very important, however he doesnt move back into the top 10 because it worries me that this horse is behind. His trainer said he simply wasn't ready for the Hutcheson. That's not a positive sign at this time of year. He could still get back into the top 10 but I'll wait until I see his debut. Twilight Meteor was the only 3yo of note to run this weekend. He won the Hallandale Beach stakes on Turf at Gulfstream and earned a 94 Beyer speed figure. I dont know yet if this horse is being pointed towards the Kentucky Derby. He has never run on dirt but he did get a 97 Beyer when winning a stakes on the polytrack. He will most likely be pointed for the Queen's Plate since he is a Canadian bred but he might start next in the Lane's End. A win in that race and the allure of the Derby might be too much for his connections to resist. He should handle the distance well and he has a nice long stride. He is certainly an interesting prospect and he debuts on my radar list this week. Another Canadian bred Buffalo Man also gets added to the radar ahead of his race in the Fountain of Youth.
On the radar: Ketchikan, Circular Quay, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Twilight Meteor, Curlin, Summer Doldrums, Day Pass, Teuflesberg, Buffalo Man
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Well, both of the horses I mentioned being excited about on your last top ten update are now off the trail. KC mentioned Exhale, and you can add Buffalo Man to the list. http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=37751 Apparently he had a misstep following a workout. They indicate that the injury is not life threatening and expect to see him racing again in the fall. At this rate, we'll be lucky to get 20 horses to the first week in May in one piece!
the derby picture ought to start sorting itself out a little bit after the next three weekends, and in particular after this weekend, especially in regard to not so much who is going to pop up as a surprise but as to how well current top contenders fair/ i saw in the form that buffalo man was off the derby trail due to injury noted after a workout/ as mentioned before i am being drawn over to supporting nobiz like showbiz/ apparently he tore up the track in his latest 6 furlong workout/ i am looking forward to seeing how my little david, johannesburg star, does againt goliath /// likewise, stormello, another one of my 'road to the roses' horses, is training gangbusters out west// in regard to stormello, this business of needing a ride to florida is kind of interesting/ are the costs that high that trainers and owners have to share the costs? / maybe so, and its probably easy for me to say since i don't have to pay the freight bill, but when you look at what is paid for some of these thoroughbreds, and when you you look at the potential earnings if the colt would happen to win the derby, it kind of makes it seem like the barn and/or owner(s) are living hand to mouth// in any event, i don't know much about that aspect///i also really enjoyed the gulfstream turf race won by jambalaya/ i see it got the most votes in terms of the best race of the weekend// however the las flores race was really fascinating/ hello lucky won at boxcar prices and i think a handicapper, looking hard enough could have made a case for the mare/ both hello lucky and selvatica were coming off the turf/ hello lucky was coming off a terrific workout/ if one looked back to her dmr dirt races she actually stood a reasonable chance to win if things went right for her/ certainly, she didn't deserve the 30-1 odds assigned by the betters/ if one could have foreseen the maniacal up front speed of the race, those that laid of he pace a bit were given a great opportunity/ well, in handicapping hind sight is always 20-20 but it is always fun to speculate/ chicago gerry
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