It's Kentucky Derby Future Wager time. For some reason I am always excited by this prospect. I do not actually play the Futures, I play them in the theoretical sense and I keep good records to remind me why I shouldn't play them in real life. Really the risk of time makes these wagers a pretty bad value bet. Maybe if they opened it up so include 50 horses instead of 23 you might get prices worth playing but essentially the line is usually too tight.
Just to give you an idea of how risky it is the first pool in the Future Wager has yielded on average 38% Derby starters. That means that just 8 or 9 horses can be expected to make it to the Derby from the list of 23. An even lower percentage actually makes it to the Derby at a shorter price than they are listed in Pool #1.
Still you can make money if you have the winner and going over the possibilities is quite fun. If you do plan on playing the Pool make sure to wait until Sunday afternoon. The odds can change dramatically, especially among the horses who are actually running this weekend. Here would be my suggestions for pool #1.
Derby Pool #1
Any Given Saturday (20/1) - As my top ranked Derby horse I have to like his chances of paying out. The fact that his ML is 20/1 is all the more enticing. I wouldn't take him lower than 15/1 though. Hopefully his price stays in this neighborhood.
Drums of Thunder (30/1) - I would only play this horse if his price drifted in a serious way. Like 50/1 or more. He is not a main contender but he does have a longshots chance. I thought he improved greatly in his last race. His trainer is hot right now so perhaps its merely a case of the string being in form.
Forefathers (30/1) - Another horse I would only play above 50/1. He likely only made the list because they felt obliged to have a Zito horse in there and he looked like the best candidate. I don't know how far he wants to go, he seemed to have problems changing leads in his last and consequently his stride looked short and choppy. But it's possible that this horse could handle more distance. I though Adore the Gold was a much better horse than he was and he gave him all he could handle.
Great Hunter (30/1) - His price nearly jumps off the page. This was one of the most solid 2yo's of 2006. His Beyer Speed Figures weren't very high but he certainly wouldn't be the first horse to return as a 3yo and suddenly look like a monster. He showed plenty of potential and consistency and anything higher than 20/1 is a good deal in my mind. He still has lots of time to improve his figures and he may get forgotten because he hasn't run for a while.
Liquidity (20/1) - I'll admit it, I was quite taken with his last race, i thought it was fantastic. He has looked like a different horse with blinkers. He also seems to handle two turns just perfectly. I don't really want him if he is going to be bet down just because it's poor value. I'm thinking he has to be more than 15/1 for me to consider it. I predict he will be about 18/1 and for me that's a decent but not a great price.
Oaks Pool #1
I'm not all that enamored with the Oaks pool. Dreaming of Anna stands above the rest but she will be no value at all and she is not even certain to contest the race. Baroness Thatcher is very interesting but she is already 15/1 and is due to run this weekend and I feel she may well win the race. I'd only take her above 20/1. I also like Get Ready Bertie but I also think she'll win and I need 30/1 on her to be interested. I will review the Oaks pool after it closes for possible value but at this stage it looks like I don't have any suggestions.
Actually maybe the most interesting Oaks developments that will transpire today will occur in Gulfstream's 8th.
Most people will be focused on the Corinthian vs Jazil allowance but that race is not all that attractive to me. I think its quite possible that both big names could lose but I don't see a good value alternative. Instead I much prefer the 8th race which features the comebacks of Panty Raid and Early Vintage. Both horses are on my Oaks radar and although they are behind preparation wise I still think that they might be brilliant enough to have an impact. Most of the attention will go to Panty Raid. A big figure maiden winner for Pletcher coming back from a long rest. She showed speed in her debut and in the end she just outclassed them all but I see her as vulnerable in this spot. She will be bet down and high maiden figure maiden horses tend to regress next out. On the other hand I really like Early Vintage who herself just has a maiden win but she didn't earn the highest of figures, instead she oozed class. She appeared to be a horse of the highest quality without actually setting the clock on fire. As evidence of her class the two horses closest to her were Get Ready Bertie and High Heels, both of those fillies will be well backed in the Silverbulletday stakes this weekend. She is likely to be less than the promised 8/1 but really anything over 3/1 is a good deal for this filly. Silver Knockers is a danger second time out after bulling her way to victory in her debut. She has been working very quickly as well but I prefer the horse Zito's #1 rider opted for and that is Lookin Back At You. She is the speed of the speed and she will be winging it out there. I think she went too fast last time but the pace tends to be more relaxed at 7f. If Early Vintage doesn't fire this is the horse I like in her stead.
1)Early Vintage
2)Lookin Back At You
3)Panty Raid
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i don't get into futures betting very much because there are too many things that can happen before derby day as KC indicates with his stats// wagering in the first round is really just an out and out gamble like placing a bet on the roulette wheel/ if you do hit its' great and for some they enjoy the risk and possibility of a big score/// i do like to follow the futures however, just to see what everyone else is thinking and in that sense it is fun// i don't begrudge anyone who wants to take a stab at futures betting and i am all for them if they can predict the winner in february and march// more power to them/// to me 'every' horse race is a futures bet except i am usually making it 2 minutes before post time armed with hopefully an informed opinion i have at the moment including the post parade warm up, and tote board action, compared to an opinion i may hold about a horse 3 months before the race// when one considers ap indy was scratched the morning of the derby and others like him shortly before derby day, (ie. i think empire maker never made it to the gate due to injury) the futures bet is really kind of a general guess as to what may transpire//in any event, i couldn't find anything i disagree with in terms of horses KC would give consideration to, his logic and the odds he would expect and want// /i was only able to look at the pp's of the current derby hopefuls for the first time today so i am not fully seeped in it yet// what struck me was the fact that you have a situation similar to that on breeders cup day in that if you liked one horse than you ought like another that came close in the just prior //ie. and in no particular order street sense, great hunter, and circular quay; stomello, liquidity,and belgravia; ravel and liquidity; nobiz like shobiz and thunder of drums; nobiz like shobiz and zanjaro; and adore the gold and forefathers// further, i will eat my bears hat if any given saturday goes off at odds greater that 12-1//also, i believe street sense is the elephant in the room i would expect him to go off at 10-1 and below // in my view, the first round of futures is not one to get to involved in // there will be plenty of good opportunities in the second round and perhaps the 3rd round, and day itself/ i// simply put, i would rather wager $100.00 on a 3-1 shot on derby day, than wager $20.00 on five horses in the first round of the derby//..chicago gerry..
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