Weekend Picks and Analysis

Overview
Dreaming of Anna makes her comeback appearance this weekend, while she appears to lay over the field I feel I must remind everyone that juvenile winners of BC races are far from sure things in their comebacks. Anna looks special so I can't wholeheartedly support opposing her but a horse like Secretsoftheheart may just give her a run for her money at a good price. I am also looking forward to the Silverbulletday Stakes but I'm not recommending any wagers. I really like Get Ready Bertie and Appealing Zophie going forward but the prices aren't right this time.

Risen Star
I think Circular Quay is vulnerable, both times he has gone two turns he has looked a little flat. I know he is the class of the field and everyone is saying how the long stretch will suit but I think he's worth going against. I'll use perhaps a combination of three horses against him. The first is Notional. Sure he's got a bad post and some question his ability at the distance. I don't think he'll have any problem with the distance and its worth noting that he is undefeated on conventional dirt. He also received a pair of pretty good figures for both of those efforts. He'll sit off the pace and he's got the tracks money rider which makes him very dangerous. I'm also interested in Izzie's Halo. Tom Amoss is a pretty shrewd guy and this horse was well thought of early on. He struggled to live up to the expectations but he finally seemed to put it together two starts back. Then he faced Hard Spun who was in a different league. He could be a threat here and at the very least we could learn something about Hard Spun. I also like the longshot Imawildandcrazyguy. He goes here for the underrated Bill Kaplan who has had Storm In May and Drums of Thunder run well recently. For those of you who remember he also got High Fly started on the Derby trail. This horse woke up in a big way in his last race and beat a useful horse in Steelix very handily. Jara comes all the way to the Fair Grounds to ride him. He's his only mount on the card. This horse could seriously spring the upset.

1)Notional
2)Imawildandcrazyguy
3)Circular Quay

Las Virgenes
A surprisingly good group of fillies is assembled for what is usually a weak race. This year I have to say I'm impressed with the lineup. Its almost as if there is a horse for every type of player. You have the undefeated sprinter stretching out in Swiss Diva. You have the high figure, big reputation horse in Cash Included, the exciting Pletcher maiden, Rags to Riches, the solid recent form trio of Jump On In, Baroness Thatcher and Runway Rosie as well as the classy come backer Romance Is Diane. I think I could justify going for any of these horses but that's what makes racing so great. Cash Included is the horse they will all have to beat. She was magnificent over this course and similar distance last year. A repeat of that effort could find the rest of these flat footed. A filly I have always thought well of is Baroness Thatcher. She isn't quick be she is tough and I think she will improve with distance. She seems to have come into her own with Biancone. I do think though that some fleeter filly might be too tough for her here. Rags to Riches could be any kind of horse. I wasn't all that impressed with her action, but hey whatever propels you 6 lengths ahead of the competition is good enough for me. I feel like I want to include Runway Rosie and Romance Is Diane somehow but you cant take them all.

1)Cash Included
2)Baroness Thatcher
3)Rags To Riches

Santa Maria
I don't really know what the morning line for this race is going to look like. At first glance this field looks very even. Sugar Shake should take some money off her stylish score in the El Encino, Seafree will probably be seen as the class of the field and Ermine is the improved shipper. This could be quite a mess to untangle but I have to say that Sugar Shake won't get my backing. I think she is facing a tougher group this time and I really don't see her taking this field all the way around. Most of the class in this race are close pace pressers. She would have to improve greatly to beat this field the same way. I think Seafree is also worth opposing, now that is assuming she is lower than 4/1. If they completely ignore this filly she's worth a play but I don't think they will. Ermine for me a tough horse to get a line on. She was actually my choice in the Oaks last year and she nearly got it done. She's really on had two bad races in her life, both of those came when she shipped away from her home base. At the same time it could have just been summer doldrums. She came alive in the fall and looked very good. The horse she beat last out also shipped to California and ran away with the SunMil Distaff. I'm undecided on Ermine, if you can get around 7/2 I'd say she's a play but she is certainly beatable. One horse I'm hoping goes completely unnoticed is Rahys' Appeal. This solid little filly has gotten no respect thus far. She has been dynamite with the Turf to Dirt move in the past and its setting up here again with her in career best form. She can sit right in behind the top group and make a good run when they straighten. Interesting that her trainer Tom Bush is 15% overall but 31% with horses going turf to dirt. Oddly enough this race was won last year by a horse going turf to dirt. Rahys' Appeal is very very dangerous. Another longshot I like is River Savage, she could simply be outclassed with these girls but she handles two turns on Santa Anita's main track very well. He last win was extremely easy and she had her ears pricked all the way. It wont be as easy for her this time but she is a possible budding star.

1)Rahys' Appeal
2)Ermine
3)River Savage