Overview: Sorry to those people who regularly read this space, I have to say I am embarrassed by the content and lack of content this week. It's hard to find constant inspiration, but it never is on Friday's because as usual we have a whole bunch of stakes races. Maybe not the highest quality races but I'm sure we can find some that are worthy of a play. As an added feature now all the bolded race titles will be links to the PP's for that race. The PP's will be mostly Brisnet's version but I will link DRF PP's whenever they are available. For a link to all the available free PP's for each weekend please visit the Past Performances link on the sidebar of this space.
Sam Davis
Alright this race isn't worth a play but I felt I had to mention it because it features my #1 Derby horse Any Given Saturday. Although Tampa is a quirky surface that not all horses act on I think it would be very disappointing to see Any Given Saturday lose this race. There are some interesting horses lined up against him but he has appeared to be in a different class. Unless someone really freaks out I think there is no excuse for the Pletcher horse, but he's also not worth the price.
1) Any Given Saturday
Sabin H
There is a lot of class in this race with Swap Fliparoo and Oonagh MacCool but I'm struck by the lack of speed. I think the lead will be decided between Sugar Swirl and Getcozywithkaylee. I'm not sure sure which one will take the lead but I think either is dangerous if they get to it. Sugar Swirl is 4-3-0-1 at one turn dirt races, her only loss came in her career debut so clearly she is at the conditions that she would like but I'm not sure if her best race is enough to take these horses. She was on a fast pace last out and still won the race but her last quarter was in :27 1/5. She crawled home after opening up in midstretch. That tells me although she is proficient at one turn dirt races that 8f might be a tad too long for her, especially in this company. Getcozywithkaylee is an interesting horse, she has the speed to take them all the way around but she also settles nicely off the pace. I think she is drawn in the perfect spot to track Sugar Swirl in the early going. She has run twice at these exact conditions and she was first and second, her loss came to Spun Sugar who then won two G-1 races. She has beaten Leona's Knight, Classy Charm and Toll Taker and was not far behind Swap Fliparoo in her last despite the bad trip. I think she can beat the top two if things go her way. Swap Fliparoo is very dangerous if she gets the pace but it may not be that quick. Her wins tend to be few and far between. Oonagh MacCool is a wild card and in my opinion a bad bet. She should be favored and we don't know how she has come back from her injury nor do we know how effective she is at one turn.
1)Getcozywithkaylee
2)Swap Fliparoo
3)Oonagh MacCool
Daytona H
I see a pretty solid horse in this race. I'm not sure what the prices will be like but I love Taikun here. The best turf sprinters in the world are found in Australia. This guy was far from a world beater over there but he's been very good on this side of the pond. I loved his comeback and I think he'll be sharper in here. I suspect he may be better at shorter distances but he has a good turn of foot and his jock should be able to use it whenever he wants.
1)Taikun
San Carlos H
I love this race, not because I have a sure thing but because its best clash of quality this weekend. 11 horses, 6 of them Graded stakes winners and 3 of them are G-1 winners. Siren Lure was a huge factor in the sprint division last year and he gets his campaign off the mark here. Latent Heat was talked about as a Derby horse this time last year and Proud Tower Too is as fast as any horse in the nation. In terms of gate speed the only horse I see as his equal is Fabulous Strike. As in most races that I like to play I have found cause to dislike the favorite. Latent Heat is immensely talented but his results have shown inconsistency and I think its due to a specific factor. He isn't able to overcome adversity. Sure he looked great in the Malibu but his trip was text book, that's true of all of his wins. I don't think this horse will be able to deal with the fast pace he's going to see here. If he can, I'll gladly lose but I'd rather be taking the chance that he cant. Proud Tower Too as I mentioned is fast, he's scary fast and the big names in here will be hoping that the cheap speed will push him on. He will crack if the pace is fast enough but if they let him get things his own way he's too good to catch. Siren Lure is the top closer in the field and he is certainly dangerous but I'm hoping for more of a price with an off the pace horse. Harvard Avenue has decent form of late, he is just getting back on track after the injury problems he's had. Two years ago this horse was definitely good enough to win a race like this and he just missed in the 05' renewal. His last race should be scratched. It was falsely run and it gave him no chance. Look for him to be flying late.
1)Harvard Avenue
2)Proud Tower Too
3)Siren Lure
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3 comments:
I like the Harvard Avenue call in the San Carlos. He'll definately be a good value with the big names in the race. I think Proud Tower Too is ready to run a great race in this one, and I'd pick him for the win - but we'll have to wait and see the price. I am also excited to see Any Given Saturday run. I think this is a nice placement for starting the derby trail, and I hope he delivers with a nice run. Hope you'll talk about the Southwest before Monday - as I see it being a more competitive affair than expected. We'll find a lot out about Hard Spun and we might find another Summer Doldrums. Should be exciting.
much to my disappointment i won't be getting to see the races this weekend/ on the surface it looks full of opportunities/ probably like most handicappers i do a lot of my handicapping adjustments after i see the warm ups and observe the tote board activity/ that is why i do have great respect for anyone who goes out on the limb with picks before they have the full opportunity to take everything in, including scratches, changes and track conditions/ mainly, i wanted to say a few things about the san carlos but before that/ i agree with both our leader and joseph that the sam davis ought to be a public workout for any given saturday and i think it's a great advantage for pletcher to bring this colt to this race/ if the race doesn't take to much out of any given saturday, pletcher should be able to continue with confidence to carry out his plan in regard to progressively getting to this colt to the derby // all the way with taikun in the daytona and a great pick// in regard to the sabin handicap, i would be taking oonagh macCool merely as a hunch bet because my son's name is mac (i am serious about this) (: / i would have my fingers crossed and be praying bejarano can stay close to the pace/bejarano and cruz should have a good day on saturday overall/other horses i have an interest in at gulfstream park are: hemingway's key (zito) in the 5th, ballymore in the 8th, stormy kiss in the 9th (hurricane bertie handicap), and big booster (claim)in the 10th/ a handicapper might be able to get a price on most if not all of these/ i am also curious to see how well lukas's horse, flashstorm, does at oaklawn// also, at oak lawn, in the 9th race (pippen50K), kettleoneup is interesting because she ran well vs. sugar shake/ likewise at tampa bay in the 8th (suncoast75K), changeisgonnacome is fascinating because: she ran against dream rush, there is no rider listed in the form and she should go off at a great price/// regarding the san carlos//this to me is the most interesting race of the weekend and a great choice by kennedys corridor to discuss// again, if i knew now what i would know 3 minutes before race time i might hold a different opinion than i do now// up front i like latent heat recognizing fill well he is coming off a top effort and could likely bounce and is going up against top competition / what i see is prado coming to town,/ i see the grade 1 malibu, won by latent heat was a tick and 1/5 off the track record at santa anita for 7 furlongs/ i see that latent heat won his last race at santa anita at 7 furlongs/ i see that latent heat's time in the malibu was faster than the 2005 malibu and the 2005 san carlos// the gist of all this is to say that, although latent heat might be considered as cheap speed by some, and although he might get run down in the lane, i think the others are likewise going to have their hands full with latent heat/ chicago gerry
Thought I'd throw out a couple thoughts on the Southwest. I'm looking forward to taking a stand against Hard Spun ... Someday. At the mile distance, he appears to be head and shoulders above this field...but there is an awful lot of horses who like to have the lead, so there is a chance that the favorite could get cooked early if he can't rate. Initially, I thought Starbase might be a great value play at 20/1 on the morning line and coming off of a nice 1-1/16 win, but his pps show only one ho-hum work since his last race on January 20th, so I'm not too confident with his conditioning. So, I'll go with Our Sacred Honor and Going Ballistic as the horses most likely to win if Hard Spun doesn't hold up. Our Sacred Honor hasn't raced too much, but has shown consistent improvement with added distance and is coming off of a nice allowance win at Gulfstream. Going Ballistic has gone against fields twice as classy as this one, seems to be the best closer of the bunch, and should get a nice hot pace to run at.
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