Any Given Weekend

I have to say that this week I don't feel like I'm in inspired form, sometimes the issues of life cloud the mind. When you're in that state it's wise not to press it. Still I find handicapping a most delightful distraction so I will be putting my hand to a few races. Just be warned that this weekend has no right to be a career best for me. The great thing about this game is that next week is always fresh, the opportunities will still be there when you're ready to see them again.

I have no solid opinion in the Florida Oaks but I am very interested to see how Autobahn Girl, Cotton Blossom and Desire to Excel fare. Three top notch fillies all coming in at different stages. We may see the emergence of something special.

Tampa Bay Derby
I think this is a horrible betting race but its the match up of the weekend. The return of Street Sense has been much lauded. Regular readers of this space will note that I've been bearish on his Derby chances, meanwhile Any Given Saturday has been my top Derby choice for quite some time. Breeders Cup winners have traditionally been bad bets in their comeback races. Overall they have a 32% winning percentage but if you isolate just the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies that percentage drops to 18%. So far this year 5 BC winners have come back and 3 of them were losers. The last BC Juvenile winner to win his comeback race was Favorite Trick in 98. So history is against Street Sense. I think the most important thing for both Street Sense and Any Given Saturday is that they run a solid race. I would really like to see Any Given Saturday step up and run a three figure Beyer. I think the post positions favor Pletcher's horse and I do expect him to win. Street Sense is a horse I am very cautious about. If you look at his race record the anomaly appears to be his BC win not his other races. I'll take the wait and see approach with him. If he wins all I've missed out on is a 4/5 shot.

1)Any Given Saturday

Rebel
Like many prep races this is a real proving ground. There is no real established horse in this race everyone running could see their Derby hopes dashed by a poor performance. I am going to go against Flying First Class despite the high figure and the glowing reports about him. I'm simply very skeptical of him. Curlin is a horse I actually like much better, I think he's way too inexperienced to be taking on the Derby but this is just the Rebel and I think he merits a close look. His old workmate Silverinyourpockets has gone on to some decent success and I liked this horses maiden. Everyone did, but I think he has the chance to go further, I don't think he is true front end speed I think he just outclassed that field. The pace looks like it will be hot and that may set up for the classy closing duo of Officer Rocket and Xchanger. Both had troubled trips last out and still tried to close into the soft pace. I prefer Officer Rocket slightly just because he looks like a tougher horse and more legitimate at the distance but Xchanger is tough in his own right. He has never run a really good race around two turns but I think his last was better than it looked. Teuflesberg is a bet against in my opinion, he wont get the same easy lead he got last time and I still don't believe that he is a two turn horse.

1)Officer Rocket
2)Curlin
3)Xchanger

Shirley Jones H
This is the kind of race you could really sink your teeth into I find myself making cases for 5 or 6 runners in here. Any Limit is the favorite and based on her morning line price of 9/5 you have to oppose her. I think she is a good favorite who could win the race but that is a terrible price given how evenly matched these horses appear to be. I think Any Limit will lead this field early and the rest will have to rely on the pressers and the extended distance to reel her in. I think you'll see Sugar Swirl and Getcozywithkaylee up near the pace but they don't really have the speed to take over unless they go suicidal. We know that Any Limit can set a fast pace and still hang on. What really kills her rivals off is her speed in the second quarter. But enough about the dangerous Any Limit we're looking for some horses to beat her. Leah's Secret looks to me like a good candidate for the upset. She was left at the gate in her last and ran a monstrous race race just to be 5th. She wheels back a month later and if she breaks cleanly she could be live. She has never been against horses this good so class is a question mark but I think she is the best finisher in this group and 7f with a fast pace can be a taxing affair. Another horse I like is My Lucky Free. She lost to Any Limit last out but I think she was disadvantaged. Any Limit had a real fitness advantage and I think it told in the final furlong. This is a very solid horse and she should be launching her assault around the far turn. Last time it petered out in the stretch, maybe this time she be able to sustain her run.

1)Leah's Secret
2)My Lucky Free
3)Any Limit