Big Weekend in the Big Easy

Azeri BC
Before we get started with the big races from the Fair Grounds I wanted mention this race at Oaklawn. The reason I am so interested in this race is it's the 2007 of India. She is a horse I have followed from the beginning, while not always as a fan I think she was reborn when trying two turns. I pegged her last November as a horse to watch for 2007 and I think this will just be her first step in what could be a very good campaign. I think she is simply too fast for these girls. She doesn't need the lead but she has enough speed to decide her own destiny. She looks like a best bet to me.

1)India

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H
I decided to skip over the New Orleans H because I just don't see many interesting options, I also don't trust Master Command so the race is a pass. This one on the other hand is a superb contest. I have always liked King's Drama and he is clearly the class of the race for me. I always give class an extra bit of consideration on the grass because it often carries the day. But it's possible that a price may be had. It's worth noting that there are only two horses in this race who are likely to contest the pace. King's Drama and Sweet Return. I think King's Drama will be rated off the pace like he was in his last, he really only goes to the front in longer races and I think his connections have decided that it's not so bright to put him right on the lead. That may just open things up for Sweet Return. For 4 years now there has been a constant in racing. Sweet Return alone on the lead is a dangerous prospect to oppose. Sweet Return is most definitely a good play if you can envision him getting in front alone and staying in front until at least the third call. He has had 7 such races in his career and he has compiled a record of 5-1-0 at average odds of 6.5/1. Another thing to note is that his wins often come in pockets. Having won last out I think he's an excellent candidate to carry that form. Solis flies in just for this mount in what I think is a signal of clear intent. It's a bit of a risky play because if King's Drama goes with him early he will most likely be off the board. He just does not do well with company up front, but he has a realistic chance of stealing the march. Hendrix is a bit of a wise guy's horse but I don't really like him. He's not really a winner and he's just 1 for 8 at the distance. I'll use the old warrior Cloudy's Knight for the third spot. I think he's capable of closing into a soft pace and he's in the form of his life right now. I'm using three 7 year olds in this one, I'm hoping class and experience see them through.

1)Sweet Return
2)King's Drama
3)Cloudy's Knight

Fair Grounds Oaks
Race of the season so far in this division, I'm having a really hard time parsing through all the different possibilities. Appealing Zophie, Octave and Get Ready Bertie are three fillies that I think very highly of. In fact the first two were also among the horses included in the aforementioned horses to watch. I think Appealing Zophie may just be a monster on the front end this year and she'll be tough to pass on any day but I'm thinking maybe they'll get to her in this spot. There seems to be more pace pressure here with Whatdreamsrmadeof and Mistical Plan. Octave has to be well respected. She was clearly the second best filly in the nation last year and she always looked like a horse that would go on. Sitting right in behind the speed is her best game and Gomez comes for the ride. I think that makes Octave maybe the horse to beat. Still I think Get Ready Bertie has more than a shout. She was victimized by a slow pace last time and never really had a chance. But she loves two turns and she will be closing late. I'm just slightly nervous about her speed figures which are definitely lower than those of the principles. Prado is an asset but she may not be able to deal with these speedier fillies. Another horse that caught my eye is Le Chateau. She is a bomb but she looked fantastic in her dirt debut. She gets Albarado riding back and she could turn some heads with her relentless stretch drive. I think Total was exposed as a non stayer last out and the fast pace wont help her here. Mistical Plan is spotted curiously because I don't think she is a two turn horse at all and yet they've shipped across the country to go two turns. Her trainer must see something that I don't.

1)Octave
2)Appealing Zophie
3)Le Chateau

Louisiana Derby
The Fair Grounds sure drew a great card, not only is the Oaks the strongest fillies race we've seen thus far I think this race is the strongest meeting of colts thus far. Liquidity is most definitely the horse to beat. His Beyer figs tower over these, his stable has been red hot, most of these horse last time to his stablemate who I think is inferior and he should get the rub of the green pace wise. But there are still some things to worry about with him. He seems like a bit of a waiter. In both his last two races he seemed as if he might win it but he just sort of hung in the lane. I certainly don't want to see him passed between the 1/8th pole and the wire. Zanjero looms a danger, his Beyer figures are behind Liquidity's but he has been improving and horses often make a jump second off the shelf. His race last out almost seems like the classic setup for victory this time. He was well off the pace and rallied wide only to hit the front too soon and be cut down by horses who were produced more patiently. Gomez likely wont fall into that trap and its eerily reminiscent of Street Sense's last race before the BC Juvenile. Zanjero could easily win this race. But then we also have the improving Ketchikan. It is my personal opinion that his allowance win last time out was the best non stakes performance by a 3yo this year. He came alive in a big way and he might be one of those who simply improves well beyond the rest of the field here. If you're going for value I think he's the play. Birdbirdistheword also has some talent but I don't think he's going to get a fast pace this time and that may hurt his chances. He has also always been slower than most of these and the horses he beat last time haven't given him a good form reference. I'll not use him here but he wouldn't surprise me. I'm also going to toss Circular Quay and Imawildandcrazyguy. The former has a big reputation but I still have yet to see a two turn race where he hasn't flattened out. Unless he shows me that he can still accelerate over longer distances I'll drop him entirely. Imawildandcrazyguy is a bit of a plodder and his stablemates Drums of Thunder and Storm In May both regressed in a big way. perhaps the stable is out of form.

1)Liquidity
2)Ketchikan
3)Zanjero

Forward Gal
I had not intended to do the races at Gulfstream but this one in particular stood out to me as a singular opportunity. A lot of money will be thrown at the highly touted undefeated Zito horse Silver Knockers, while still more should be put on Boca Grande a classy looking Phipps filly who is near the top of many Oaks lists. But I see reasons to oppose both of them. Silver Knockers draws the inside post and will surely be rushed up more than she'd prefer to be. There a good amount of speed in here and she's been looking keyed up in the mornings. She has looked very good in both her races but she is inexperienced and really has been no faster than anyone figures wise. Boca Grande quite simply looks like a two turn horse who also has not earned very high speed figures. I think she might find that a few of these sprinters are too fast for her. My money will be on You Asked. She looks every inch a classy closing sprinter. Last time out she lost to the best 3yo sprinter out there in Dream Rush but she wasnt embarrassed. She closed gamely and should love the added furlong. She can close effectively into any pace but the expected fast pace here looks all the better. 5/1 looks like a great deal on her. I will be very interested to see how Forever Together does. She is also undefeated and is in here for a barn that doesn't really do well with precocious young horses, dirt horses or sprinters. The fact that she is all three of those and doing well is very intriguing.

1)You Asked
2)Silver Knockers
3)Forever Together