Derby Top 10

Derby Top 10 (Mar 19th)

1. Any Given Saturday (1)
2. Great Hunter (2)
3. Street Sense (new)
4. Circular Quay (3)
5. Ravel (4)
6. Ketchikan (5)
7. Notional (6)
8. Nobiz Like Showbiz (7)
9. Scat Daddy (8)
10. Adore The Gold (10)

Street Sense makes his first reappearance on the Top 10 since Jan 22nd. He had been ranked 4th overall at that stage but concerns over his prep races saw him removed from the list. The trainer changed his tune about the type of preps he was going to give him and he passed his first test with flying colors so he goes right back near the top. At this stage the top 4 horses one the list are the only ones that I consider real Derby winning candidates. The others are sort of the best of the rest. The Tampa Bay Derby was a fantastic spectacle and I think both horses did well. In actual fact I loved Any Given Saturday's race. It was the perfect race to move him forward. I like my Derby horses to be battle tested and many times its actually the loser of the battle who winds up being the better play on Derby day. I think this race showed that these horses are extremely closely matched. Despite Calvin Borel's comments I don't believe that Street Sense is really 20 lengths better than the race he ran. I think he should move up in his next race but so should Any Given Saturday. I do not believe the rumors floating around that a hard race will be bad for Street Sense. I prefer that he had hard race. Victory Gallop, one of the best two prep horses of recent times had a pair of tough races and he was quite ready on Derby day. Beyer wise I don't think either of these horses, or indeed Great Hunter. are likely to fit the common 105 Beyer profile. Their last prep is coming on Polytrack and if I'm not mistaken no horse has ever achieved a figure that high on that surface. It might create some value because I think they will come into the Derby a little light on speed figures. It has not escaped my notice that my top 3 are all planning to prep on Polytrack in the same race. I think it will serve them well and I don't necessarily think that the Blue Grass winner will be the Derby winner. It will be an interesting clash. Law Breaker was the major casualty this week. He was always a longshot to be included and with his physical problems now I cant see him really being a contender. I have Officer Rocket ranked above Curlin on my radar list just because I think Curlin is a better horse but a worse candidate for the Derby. He is inexperienced and I really don't think he will be seasoned enough on Derby day. Officer Rocket on the other hand is this year's Giacomo. He had another curious trip where his rider rushed him up early then lost all initiative and had to regroup. By the time he hit his best stride the race was over. Curlin was clearly going to beat him no matter what but Officer Rocket is the kind of horse that is going to keep on coming. He's looking great to hit the bottom of the Derby super. He's only not in the top 10 because I'm giving Adore the Gold and Hard Spun one more chance at redemption. Cobalt Blue does not appear anywhere on my list. He's a good horse and I hope he makes it to the Derby but I really don't think he's good enough to run with the A grade 3yo's.

On the radar: Hard Spun, Officer Rocket, Curlin, Twilight Meteor, Sam P, Liquidity, Zanjero, Summer Doldrums, Stormello, Teuflesberg