Dubai World Cup Meeting - Part 1

I think I'll forego the usual Derby statistic this week and focus a little more on the Dubai World Cup meeting. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the true World Championships. The quality of dirt racing is slightly lower but the Turf racing is far superior and most importantly it truly is a world event. Over the 6 races there will be 84 horses competing from 13 nations. The form is nearly impossible to decipher and I don't think that the major data makes in north America are even constructing Past Performances. So we'll have to analyse these races with bits of data that can be gathered from a variety of sources.

*Edit: The DRF has made PP's available so they're linked where appropriate.

Godolphin Mile
I think the main focus of this race is going to be on Fusaichi Richard but as with all dirt races I'm going to side with the Americans. The Japanese dirt program is much improved but it is not yet on par with what we see in America. Overall I think the Godolphin Mile has attracted disappointing quality and a horse I've been sweet on for a while looks set to take the laurels. Spring at Last is a horse I've been hoping would be entered in a good spot because I think he has improved to the point where he can be a legitimate G-1 horse but in reality there was no way he was going to stay 10f in his last. O'Neill is as hot as any trainer right now and has proven adept with shippers. This is the barns best hope for success on the card and he may be my best bet of the day. The long stretch may help Dixie Meister and he should be able to save some ground. The flat mile might be a bit sharp for him but he is as capable as anyone other than my top choice. I'm a bit interested in Godolphins Killybegs. He has never been on dirt so that is a total unknown but something I've always admired about this horse is his toughness. He sticks around a lot longer than he probably should in his races and he is accustomed to racing at a higher level. His last race was just for fitness and he could be dangerous if he handles the going.

1)Spring At Last
2)Dixie Meister
3)Killybegs

UAE Derby
This race may have the most unknowns floating around. It may be smart thing simply to go with the class of the race. Asiatic Boy has been a monster since coming to Dubai, no one has gotten near him. I expect the competition to be much tougher here and especially in terms of pace. This horse likes to be prominent and it wouldn't surprise me to see he and Day Pass cutting out a quick gallop. I think may be the area that Godolphin plan to exploit because while Day Pass once was the stable #1 for this race there is no question that they are now firmly behind Eu Tamben. This horse has done little wrong and like Asiatic Boy he is a southern hemisphere 3yo meaning he would be considered a 4yo in North America. He dusted older horses in his prep for this engagement and I think with Day Pass out there to set it up for him he's the one to beat. Godolphin knows how to win this race and they seem pretty confident about his chances. With the pace setup he may win this one easy. Folk is another interesting entrant, she flashed talent in her races in North America and appeared like something special but since turning into a 3yo she has become a monster. I think she very well could be the best 3yo filly out there at the moment. Her connections have indicated that as long as she's healthy she is going to the Oaks and even Rags to Riches may be hard pressed to deny her. But in this spot I think her speed is a liability. Class may see her hit the frame but I doubt she'll be able to get the kind of trips she is used to. The outside post doesn't help matters either.

1)Eu Tamben
2)Asiatic Boy
3)Folk

Golden Shaheen
This race could easily be renamed the golden goose and no American would disagree. America sure has a ton of nice dirt horses but if there is one category of dirt horses that they especially excel in it has to be with sprinters. Oddly enough the fastest horse in this race is not an American. I truly believe that National Colour will out sprint all of these, maybe through the first half mile. The suspicion is though that her best distance is shorter than 6f and with increased pace pressure here I think she may just wilt late on. But speed is always dangerous and you have to respect the speed of the speed. I think a horse like Bishop Court Hill will be keeping her honest though. The key for me in this race is Friendly Island. He does not typically go to the front. I think he can be produced from anywhere in this field and most importantly I think he is the the best 6f American horse in the race. Much is being said about how all the speed that's in here along with the straight course will favor the closers but this horse is better than all the closers. Nightmare Affair for instance has only beaten him once in 4 tries and that win came at Calder where he is something of a specialist. Thor's Echo is a bad gamble in my opinion, he is certainly capable but I didn't like his last. It didn't seem like just a prep race to me, I don't trust him at all. I will however include a wacky selection in Kelly's Landing. I think he has been totally ignored by the American press but there are a few things working in his favor. He is consistently inconsistent and he is due to run a good race. His best career race is good enough to win, he doesn't have to improve he only needs to do his best. His favorite track is Churchill Downs and Nad al Sheba's surface is said to be most like CD. Kelly's Landing could be very live. If you're looking for a super bomb I'd go with Terrific Challenge. He spend some time up at Woodbine while it still had regular dirt and he did quite well. He spent most of last year as a turf sprinter and he seemed to take his game to a new level. Now he is based in Dubai and he won the race where Thor's Echo flopped. He is trained by transplanted American Doug Watson and he has every right to run a good race.

1)Friendly Island
2)Kelly's Landing
3)Terrific Challenge