Dubai World Cup Meeting - Part 2

Dubai Sheema Classic
This is the kind of race that makes the Dubai World Cup meeting so great. In this race alone we have Americans, Europeans, Japanese, South Africans and a few locals. We have Derby winners, G-1 winners from nearly all continents and a top class filly as well. Regardless of who crosses the finish line I'm sure we're going to be treated to a top class spectacle. But the sheer amount of viable contenders in this race has to make you think that a price can be had. Red Rocks may be slightly favored on the back of his BC Turf win but I'm leaning towards opposing him. Word is that he hasn't looked great in the mornings at Nad al Sheba, and I do think his BC turf form is not the level that will be required here. This is a very tough race and Pop Rock to me is the horse to beat. He has not yet achieved the pinnacle but three consecutive second place finishes against top quality opposition suggests that he is ready to break through. Everything seems in order in terms of his preparation. Really my only reason for trying to beat him is that I look at his overall record of 22-6-3-7 and for a horse of his talent he sure doesn't win a whole lot. I'd be shocked if he didn't run well but I wouldn't be shocked if he found one better, after all he's made a career of it. A horse I think has a shot is Youmzain, he had the beating of Red Rocks last term and I think most would have rated him a legitimately better horse. He's pretty game and he lays closer to the pace than the BC winner. Collier Hill also has to be respected. He may be old but he's as good as he ever was and he's already run well at this course. Although I fear Quijano I'm going to let him beat me. If he wins we could be looking at the next star of turf racing but its a tall order for him. The North American that actually interests me the most is Host. I actually selected him to win last year's Duty Free and he was 4th. I always try to figure why a certain horse is entered in a specific spot and Host could have you scratching your head for a while. He has never been past 9f but here are some positives. Pletcher has two horses in here and Johnny V chose this mount. Pletcher is deceptively good at stretching out horses and Host is a deceptively good horse. He is almost never seen at the racetrack but he is capable of producing high quality races. Pletcher knows something about this horse I'm wagering and I wouldn't be surprised if he ran huge.

1)Youmzain
2)Pop Rock
3)Collier Hill

Dubai Duty Free
If the Sheema Classic is a high quality spectacle then this is off the charts, thankfully I believe it to be a more straightforward affair. I have long held that despite America's lower overall quality of its turf horses they will win a DWC race on the Turf before too long. Unfortunately I don't see it happening this year. The Americans have sent a superb cast over for this race but they've been met with equal brilliance by the foreign contingent. Basically I believe Daiwa Major to be near unbeatable at this distance. He's got excellent tactical speed, he exudes class from every pore and he has looked like a million bucks in his trackwork. The Japanese have very very good turf horses and its almost a shame that Admire Moon is in this race where I think the distance will be against him. I may have fancied him in the Sheema Classic. I'd really love to see a good run from Mystical the horse from India but I wouldn't back that with money. The American challenge couldn't be much stronger but Lava Man is a bad gamble outside of California, I'll let him beat me. English Channel gets very keyed up and he may find himself right on the pace, besides that I don't think he is all that good. The top American in my mind is Miesque's Approval. If we get a really hot pace he is capable of running them down. However in a 16 horse field luck will play a huge factor and I wont use him for anything more than underneath. The main danger I see to Daiwa Major is Pompeii Ruler the Australian. You wont get much help translating his form with figures but I believe his best race is on par with anything else in this race. He's got a nice change of gears on him and he has really come into his own this year. He should be right there at the finish. I think an overlooked contender in here is Best Name, he could win up being Godolphin's "Doyen" this year. He looked progressive but undeveloped last year. He has very good acceleration and his run last out was nothing at all to judge him on. I do think he wants more ground but he never really got to run last time. He should be fit and set to go at a decent price.

1)Daiwa Major
2)Pompeii Ruler
3)Best Name

Dubai World Cup
For me this is a race you simply sit back and watch. Everyone has opinions about how this race might work out and personally I don't think those opinions will pay that well. I could be wrong but I don't think Invasor will creep above 5/2. Premium Tap would be a good bet if either Invasor or Discreet Cat bowed out but I don't like him against both. Now given the fact that Invasor has run his worst career race over the track and Discreet Cat is untested at the distance and wont have a prep I certainly see the case for Premium Tap. But I will approach the race like an idealist and assume that all three horses will be able to run their best race. Premium Tap is much improved and according to Kimmel he is the best he's ever been. You have to love the way he is so solid. In my mind there is little question that he is going to run his best race. Discreet Cat has arguably the most upside but at the same time is the riskiest play. It would quite exciting if this horse actually pulled it off, we may be looking at one for the ages. I assume the plan with this guy will be straight to the front in Ghostzapper like fashion. There may be other speed in here but its chaff. Premium Tap will be the one who keeps things honest. Desormeaux will be eager to see that Discreet Cat doesn't get away with anything. Also given the fact that they know PT is a sure stayer he might even get aggressive on the front end. From that perspective I don't really think Discreet Cat will win this race, but at the same time it will be all the more amazing if he did. Invasor only has to deal with the fact that he ran poorly last time here. I hope that's behind him and if it is the others will have a tough time. I think he is the kind of horse who does what is needed and therefore he never looks as flashy. He has overcome adversity, especially in the Donn last time out and I really feel like he is the standard. Class usually tells over the long straight at Nad al Sheba and I think Invasor is the classiest of the bunch. In any event racing will be treated to a clash of titans and just maybe a performance for the ages.

1)Invasor
2)Premium Tap
3)Discreet Cat